Colton Sconyers

3 objections (and responses): 1. "What about drawdowns?" Continue to hold. If you are making a bet on America, then you have to assume that, over time, America's top 500 businesses will continue to grow and eventually valuations will climb and returns will continue to compound. If you want to bet against America, then we shouldn't have a Social Security fund. If a drawdown is deep and extended, the Federal Reserve can loan capital to the OASI. This is no different than what will be needed in a low-return/treasury scenario in the coming decade. So, if we are already using money printing as a backstop, then why not opt for the higher-return/more equitable path that meaningfully reduces the chances of money printing? 2. "The S&P500 valuation will inflate!" This may be just fine. It will benefit the retirees. However, $3.2T being invested in the S&P 500 is ~6% of the aggregate market cap and may not meaningfully change prices. If prices/multiples do climb too high, investors will rotate into bonds, normalizing S&P 500 prices. Markets have a tendency to see inflows and outflows equilibrate risk premia across asset classes. 3. "No one will buy treasuries" OASI holds <8% of treasuries today. 92% are bought/held by other investors. If OASI sold off their treasuries, rates would climb until investors rotated out of equities and into treasuries, again re-equilibrating prices across asset classes.

@theNoahKim All nighter the next night. Throw in a workout or a run to make sure you’re extra tired.

I went to sleep at 5AM once and now my entire sleep schedule is ruined. What’s the fastest way to fix this?

@looking_for_pmf Simple solution for next time. Vesting schedule for equit

100% true.

Remember when Trudeau acted like trumps tariffs were a stab in the back to the United States closest friend? x.com/i/grok/share/j…

@Eltenit3 I fear you dont understand my joke lol

@ColtonSconyers Cope.

A straight men only gym would be more gay than possibly even gay bars.

….clear communication and structured environments….I might be autistic?

I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised if there comes a day when ai reverts society back to the 4th and 5th century BCE where philosophers like Socrates and Aristotle and people who genuinely pursue truth and understand it, are some of the most highly regarded/celebrated individuals in society. Ai is already creating people who claim to be educated but don’t actually understand the fundamentals of what they’re talking about. Ai only understands reality the way we tell it to. So if everyone is just asking the magical knowledge orb in their phone for the “truth” - who gets to define it?

For years, fashion retailers have struggled with one major challenge: pricing. Set it too high, and you lose customers. Set it too low, and you lose profits. That’s why I started @Runway_logic , to eliminate the guesswork and bring data-driven precision to fashion pricing.

What a change… from zero crypto engagement to a crypto summit at the White House in the first couple of weeks Great leadership @DavidSacks

I can get behind this. The severance package seems awfully generous but wth

This is my new comeback for literally everything

We’re either at the very top or the very bottom lol

@Croesus_BTC @chamath Oopsies. I meant to reply to hateful quoted reply😂 but yeah when someone in chamaths position flips like that it gets my attention.

@ColtonSconyers @chamath ya, that's why I left it neutral. something clearly changed, and it may well be that someone convinced him or he saw new data and he convinced himself just notable that he shifted from confidence on one end of the spectrum to the other, no explanation

.@chamath on the U.S. National Debt problem... 18 months ago: "it's a nothing" now: "how can any American believe this trajectory is sustainable?" What changed?

Thought provoking

This whole thread is hilarious because it’s just him complaining about examples of retail investors making dumb decisions as if this isn’t how stocks work

@brestho Absolutely. I do think there’s place for monthly subscription models depending on the product

Unpopular opinion: Subscription pricing is dying