🔋Tony🔋

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🔋Tony🔋

🔋Tony🔋

@CompoundingTony

I’m obsessed with finding amazing companies and compounding alongside them over the long term.

2050 Katılım Kasım 2022
149 Takip Edilen988 Takipçiler
Gary Wentworth 🔋
Gary Wentworth 🔋@Cluster_6·
$EOSE Very important to be promoting this. I wish they would get out on X more often.
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🔋Tony🔋
🔋Tony🔋@CompoundingTony·
@xEBITDA So instead of DYOR, you’ve just done the work for everybody! 😉 Extremely well done! Thank you for sharing.
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🔋Tony🔋
🔋Tony🔋@CompoundingTony·
𝕏 reaches new levels of stupidity on $EOSE
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Topher
Topher@TopherGotWifi·
$EOSE this is is the most Mickey Mouse shit Topher has seen. Market LOVES it so far. Like Topher said this is the swan song quarter. Joe can get away with one more story and today’s slew of headlines is setup perfectly for his final fairy tale. 🚩The EOS name is so tarnished that created a fake company with Cerberus based on a real customers name (Frontier Power USA). Locked up Cerberus until the end of the year. Investors are paying for it. As Topher said. 🚩They have a fake “order” that they aren’t allowed to call an order. It’s instead a reservation with none other than Cerberus and $EOSE joint company. Frontier 😆. Investors are funding the new company/reservation and subsequent dilution. A look at the numbers. -$57m in revenue just gotta double it and double it again. 🤓 🚩gross margin -78% 🚩 adjusted gross margin -68.5% 🚩operating margin -139.2% 🚩 Discharged 6 GWH cumulatively. Up from 5.5 GWH TWO YEARS AGO. Market LOVES it so far. Like Topher said this is the swan song quarter. Joe can get away with one more story. Today is it. Today’s Tophers final exit. Made several million here. Need to hit 9:30am to exit leaps without Joe discussing field data. Best of luck to everyone, sincerely. With margins like this and a product that doesn’t work—you’re going to need it. Topher signing off this ticker. @FuzzyPandaPA will have a field day here. Yikes.
Jesse🔋@srvc76

I was told the company ran out of money & the batteries don’t work.. both in April.

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Phil Roberts 🔋☀️🔌
Spent the day looking at a distributed AI compute investment, this was a 200kW cluster
Phil Roberts 🔋☀️🔌 tweet mediaPhil Roberts 🔋☀️🔌 tweet mediaPhil Roberts 🔋☀️🔌 tweet media
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shoogahsnaps
shoogahsnaps@shoogahsnaps·
Well, I haven’t been this relaxed before an $EOSE ER in four years!! Good luck longs.
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🔋Tony🔋
🔋Tony🔋@CompoundingTony·
@BSAT_Properties Time is the most valuable resource we all have. Wasting someone else’s time is not a small thing.
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BSAT Properties
BSAT Properties@BSAT_Properties·
I was on a train in Tokyo. We stopped between stations. Announcement in Japanese, then in English: "We apologize for the delay. We will resume shortly." The delay was maybe 3 minutes. Not a big deal. When the train started moving again, another announcement: "We sincerely apologize for the delay. We were stopped for 3 minutes and 20 seconds. This is unacceptable. Thank you for your patience." Three minutes and twenty seconds. They measured it exactly. And called it unacceptable. When I got off at my stop, there were station staff on the platform bowing and handing out delay certificates. I took one out of curiosity. It was an official document stating that the train had been delayed by 3 minutes and 20 seconds, signed and stamped. The staff member said in English "for your employer. So they know the delay was not your fault." I said I'm a tourist, I don't need it. He looked confused. "But the delay affected you. You deserve an apology." Three minutes. They were treating a three-minute delay like a major incident. Later I mentioned this to a Japanese friend. They said "oh yes, delay certificates are normal. Trains are supposed to be exactly on time. If they are late, they must apologize." I said three minutes isn't late, it's nothing. My friend said "in Japan, three minutes is late. On time means on time. Not approximately on time." They said the train company probably investigated why there was a 3-minute delay. "They will find the cause and fix it so it doesn't happen again." I kept the certificate. It's framed in my apartment now. A reminder that somewhere in the world, people care about three minutes. © 6IX.
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🔋Tony🔋 retweetledi
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️
$EOSE We already know the Q1 revenue numbers will be in the range of 55-56m. Where do you think COGS and margin will fall? Q4 was beset by high scrap rates, downtime, and idle direct labor. With similar revenue as Q4 but a more controlled cadence, things should at least theoretically, improve significantly. Gross margin trend, with an emphasis on gross:
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️ tweet mediaReasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️ tweet media
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🔋Tony🔋
🔋Tony🔋@CompoundingTony·
Today, exactly 1 year ago, $EOSE had its own ~30% breakout day and went on to become a 10x stock for those who bought near the lows.
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Mark Gregory 🔋🔋
Mark Gregory 🔋🔋@MarkGregory1313·
Certain OG $EOSE investors after they sell out.
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🔋Tony🔋
🔋Tony🔋@CompoundingTony·
A thread has been making the rounds on $EOSE that's been causing serious FUD. I want to address it properly. And I'll start by doing something most bulls won't: agreeing with part of it. Viejas is a real problem. Full stop. Eos confirmed it themselves. Their own DawnOS post states that in the earlier BMS architecture, a single imbalanced module could take an entire string offline, stranding energy across every module it was grouped with. They engineered around it, oversized systems to compensate, and dispatched technicians. That is management publicly admitting the early architecture had serious flaws. The 5.5 GWh cumulative throughput metric also disappeared from earnings reporting without explanation. Management owes shareholders clarity on that. These are fair criticisms and I won't pretend otherwise. Now here is where the logic completely falls apart. The nuclear claim is that 0 out of 135 cubes at Viejas are performing to spec and all need replacement. Think carefully about what that would mean in the real world. If 0 of 135 units were completely non-functional, Viejas, a real company with real lawyers, would have terminated the contract and filed suit. That has not happened. Instead Viejas is in an active remediation program with Eos, replacement cubes have completed factory acceptance testing at Turtle Creek, and the project remains live. That is not the behavior of a customer whose product is worthless. "Not performing to original spec" and "completely non-functional" are not the same thing. The original spec was written before DawnOS existed. The old BMS architecture underdelivered, Eos confirmed that, and the fix is DawnOS plus hardware upgrades. That is a product problem being remediated. It is not a fraud. And the fact that Eos published the very post being used as ammunition against them? That is accountability. Companies hiding things do not publish technical whitepapers explaining exactly what went wrong and why. Then there is the question of sources. The claims are based on conversations with project managers, customers, and employees. Think about which employees reach out to a bear account on Twitter. Frustrated ones. People with grievances. And even when those conversations are genuine, a project manager at a single site does not have visibility into the full picture. Remediation timelines, engineering decisions, commercial negotiations happening above their level. People share what they see from where they stand, and that is rarely the complete story. That is not a representative sample of a 750-person organization. It is a selection bias that produces a systematically negative picture by construction. And then there is this. The position was 417,000 shares. It has been sold down to roughly 13% of that at prices around $10 to $11. The stock is now lower. Every post validating the bear case also validates that exit decision. That is not objective analysis. That is human psychology doing exactly what it always does. The executive compensation framed as red flags: a CFO base of $ 470K plus bonus plus stock at a Nasdaq-listed company running a capital-intensive manufacturing scale-up with 750 employees is a completely standard public company comp structure. That framing works on retail investors who have never read a proxy statement. It should not work on anyone paying attention. The whitepapers dismissed as fluff communications were authored by the CTO and contain measured engineering results: 3 millisecond full system response time, less than 4 degrees Celsius temperature rise under sustained AI inference load cycling, 78% round-trip efficiency maintained across hours of continuous dynamic cycling. Those are test results. Not marketing copy. The right question was never whether every single claim is fabricated. Some of what is being said reflects real problems. The right question is whether the Viejas remediation program works and whether Line 2 executes on schedule. That is where this thesis lives or dies. Everything else is noise. Pessimism sounds smart. It usually is, until the inflection point. Asking hard questions about Viejas field performance is entirely legitimate. The leap from "this product had real early problems" to "0 cubes work anywhere and everything is fraud" is not analysis. It is a narrative built on biased sources, a sold position, and retail psychology. Know the difference. $EOSE
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🔋Tony🔋
🔋Tony🔋@CompoundingTony·
Great question. Honestly it comes down to one thing: do what you say you are going to do. Trust is like a battery. It drains fast and charges slowly. @tobi of Shopify calls it the trust battery and it applies here perfectly. Eos has burned through a lot of it with missed timelines and guidance that did not land. Rebuilding it does not require a brilliant communications strategy. It requires frequent and candid updates, real field data shared openly, strong orders converting, and Line 2 delivering on what they have promised. That is it. No shortcuts. Just execution over time. And yes, that requires patience from us as investors. Let them cook.
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gwiggins
gwiggins@gwiggins·
@CompoundingTony @mymorristribe Thanks for the thoughtful post. What can management do in your view to put this to bed finally? What would convince you the product is finally mature and working as intended?
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bagholder_deluxe884
bagholder_deluxe884@EOSE_believer77·
@CompoundingTony @Jupupa1 We kind of HAVE to speculate because $EOSE is never upfront and transparent about anything. So they perhaps inadvertently help to create the very environment that allows FUD to run rampant. I guess the DawnOS whitepaper is a step in the right direction towards greater honesty tho
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🔋Tony🔋 retweetledi
Costa
Costa@jcosta1029·
@CompoundingTony Being on the construction side, if this was truly as catastrophic as some claim, you’d expect litigation, contract terminations, and serious noise spreading publicly throughout the industry. That’s usually what happens when a product is completely non-functional.
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