Conjecture

@NoProb_XXX Haha 😂 Welcome back!

Not a bad time to sell :) ES 7037

@BehavioralMacro @AadilShahabUK @capitaloptimism If the breakout works, how do you determine the sell price?

@BehavioralMacro Hi Mark, any thoughts on semis? Tickers SMH and FTXL. Strong fundamental driver (capex/AI adoption) and good charts. But might be priced in I guess

@BehavioralMacro Thank you. I did well with IGV calls. I am out now. How are you thinking about the sell decision?

@BehavioralMacro @TheDomino Name of the place?

@BehavioralMacro This is very helpful. Would you consider doing this in the future for positions you are no longer in. It would be a good learning experience to know how you played it compared to me.

I was talking to Chat about this in term of Proust, Art, Meditation, and Deutsch: Yes — this thread is interesting not because it’s fully correct, but because it touches the same structure we’ve been circling from Proust → art → agency → games → knowledge creation. Let me connect it carefully, and also separate what’s true from what’s misleading. 1. What George Mack is right about The core insight in George Mack’s post is this: Time feels fast when life is unstructured, repetitive, and low in memory formation. That’s absolutely right. Modern cognitive psychology broadly agrees: Novelty → dense memory encoding Routine → memory compression Compressed memory → time retrospectively feels short So yes: Autopilot = thin memory = “Where did the years go?” Novelty + effort = thick memory = “That year felt long” This aligns perfectly with what you said earlier: the mind wanders in boring, nonsensical ways unless something focuses it 2. Where the tweet oversimplifies (important) There are two different phenomena being conflated: A. Retrospective time (looking back) “How long did that period feel?” B. Prospective time (living through it) “How fast does today feel right now?” Novelty strongly affects retrospective time It affects prospective time much less. A year full of novelty: feels normal while living it, feels long in memory. That distinction matters. 3. The Proustian correction: novelty is not enough Here is where Proust is more subtle than X-threads. Proust would say: It is not new experiences that redeem time — it is experienced experience. You can: travel constantly, change jobs, chase stimulation, and still feel time vanish — if attention remains shallow. What thickens time is not novelty alone, but interpretation. That’s where art, science, investing, games come back in. 4. Agency ≠ novelty chasing Mack equates “high agency” with doing new things. But agency, in the deeper sense, is: Choosing games where attention compounds That includes: Art (revisiting perception) Science (creating explanations) Investing (building mental models under uncertainty) Sports (iterative embodied mastery) These don’t rely on constant novelty. They rely on progressive depth. A scientist can work on the same problem for 20 years and feel time slow — because understanding accumulates. 5. Why childhood feels long (the real reason) It’s not just percentages of life lived. Childhood feels long because: everything is unfamiliar, attention is fully engaged, stakes feel real, feedback is constant, identity is forming. In other words: Childhood is lived in high-resolution awareness. Most adulthood is not. 6. “Memory dividends” — good phrase, incomplete idea The phrase is clever, but misleading if taken literally. Not all memories slow time. Many memories: blur, repeat, collapse. What creates true “dividends” is structured memory: insight, skill, explanation, narrative coherence. That’s why: reading deeply feels different from scrolling, creating feels different from consuming, thinking feels different from reacting. 7. Why art, science, and investing are superior to novelty hacks Novelty hacks: travel more, switch routines, chase experiences. They work briefly — then normalize. Art / science / investing: create internal structure, refine perception, deepen interpretation, reward patience. They make the same world feel new. That’s much more powerful. 8. The deepest correction to the tweet The tweet ends with: “If you take agency over your life… feel like you died at 200.” That’s poetic, but wrong in an important way. Proust’s answer is more austere and more honest: You don’t extend life — you justify it. Time is not slowed. It is redeemed. 9. A synthesis that fits everything we’ve discussed Here’s a version of the idea that integrates Mack and Proust and your own insight: Time feels fast when awareness is diffuse and unstructured; it feels rich when attention is focused by games worth playing—art, science, sport, and thought—which turn wandering consciousness into cumulative understanding. Or more simply: You don’t slow time by adding experiences. You slow it by making experience intelligible.

Doing more things is a form of life extension

@50ptMAE Maybe ok with AI and robots.

The biggest macro trade of our entire lives is this. People aren't having enough babies. Developed countries demographics will be like upside down pyramids. The majority of the population will be middle aged/senior with very few young people. Sad and kind of dystopian with major market ramifications.

As you hit the stores for your Christmas shopping this season keep this in mind… (I haven’t laughed this hard in a long time)

1/Today at private investor gathering I pitched LONG Adobe (ADBE) SHORT basket of scientific publishers Wiley Elsevier Springer Nature AI overestimation oversold Adobe (down 40%) AI underestimation along with 2 other catalysts is set to crack the oligopoly of publishers

A Chinese doctor moved to the U.S. and couldn't find a job at a hospital. So he opened a small clinic and put up a bold sign that read: “Cure for $20 — If you’re not cured, get $100 back!” One day, a clever American lawyer saw the sign. “This looks like a scam,” he thought, “but maybe I can make a quick $100!” He walked in, feeling confident. Lawyer: “Doctor, I’ve lost my sense of taste.” Doctor: “Nurse, Box 22 — three drops in his mouth.” Lawyer: “Ugh! That’s kerosene!” Doctor: “Perfect! Your taste is back. That’ll be $20.” A few days later, the lawyer came back. Lawyer: “Doctor, I’ve lost my memory. I can’t remember anything.” Doctor: “Nurse, Box 22 — three drops.” Lawyer: “Wait! That’s kerosene again!” Doctor: “Wonderful! Your memory is restored. That’s $20.” Still determined, the lawyer tried one last time. Lawyer: “Doctor, my eyesight is failing. I can’t see a thing!” Doctor: “Ah, sorry — no cure for that. Here’s your $100.” The doctor handed him… $20. Lawyer (squinting): “Hey, wait a minute — this is only $20!” Doctor: “Fantastic! Your eyesight is back. That’ll be $20.”

I’ve been contemplating a poem I read for the past weeks, I think we can all relate: The Tragedy of Holding On Sisyphus loves the rock. Every edge, every ounce of its weight. He talks to it, sings to it. It is his companion, his Other. He even dreams of it as he climbs in his sleep. Life without the rock is unthinkable, it looms above him like a gray moon. Yet he doesn’t see he can step aside, let it fall, and go home. The real tragedy is the mind that cannot let go. We all push a rock, old stories, guilt, regret, fear of change, attachments. The question is: when will we step aside and let it roll away?

Not to be construed as financial advice but my fav longs are $RIG, $BORR, $PANR, $PBR-A, & $MTDR.

Bruno is a savage 😂

@nikitabier Finance: Intersection of global macro & markets. Very few 'get' both and can integrate them. @michaelsantoli @LJKawa @WarrenPies @EconstratPB @NarrativeMachi1 @SamuelRines

People think I “foresee the future.” I don’t. If you ended up a bag-holder, it’s not because it was your destiny to lose money - it’s because your character made it impossible for you to sell. $IONQ, $RGTI, $QBTS, $IREN, $QUBT, $OSCR, $HIMS, $ACHR, $OKLO Here’s a story to illustrate this even better. “Kratos pushed open the great stone doors, expecting to confront the architects of destiny themselves. He came seeking prophecy - an answer, a path, a glimpse of the future that had been promised to him in whispers and myths. But the Sisters only watched him with eyes older than time. “You think you have come to witness your fate,” the eldest said. Her voice was neither cruel nor kind - just certain. “But mortal, fate is not something we see. It is something you repeat.” Kratos growled. “You carve destinies! You choose who rises and who falls!” The second Sister laughed softly. “We do not choose. We observe. Human beings are… remarkably predictable. You call it fate because the pattern is older than you.” The threads behind them shifted - thousands upon thousands of shimmering lines, all moving, looping, repeating. “We do not know the future,” the third Sister whispered. “We merely watch you make the same choices, over and over. The same anger. The same pride. The same fear. You call it destiny. We call it habit.” Kratos tightened his fists. “Then show me my path.” The Sisters stepped aside, revealing not a prophecy - but a mirror of shimmering gold. “Your future,” they said in unison, “is the shadow cast by your own nature. As long as you remain who you are… you will always walk the same road.” Kratos stared at the reflection. Not a timeline. Not a vision. Just himself. And for the first time, he understood: He wasn’t fighting fate. He was fighting the parts of himself that never changed.”

I LOVE AI CAT SLOP

@sivori Maybe that also true for parenting - lightness. But when kids are having serious problems like illness it's so heavy.

For some people, work is so important and such an important part of their identity that they become hostage in a way and it becomes heavy. But the best work is done in a state of lightness.

Parenting is weird this way. You are free to do amazing work because you care about your kids so much more. I don’t know how to explain this except to say that perhaps the happiness of family life allows you to see your work as it is and in its proper proportions for the first time. When work or career is primary, the focus on it can paradoxically make you less effective. By caring LESS because you care MORE about something else you have the space and clarity to be effective in your work

Fast food cat cashiers are the latest viral Sora trend