Cornerstone Analytics🛢Macro Oil 🗣 Oliver Parsons

A recent podcast featuring Mike Rothman of Cornerstone Analytics, arguably the best oil analyst in the game. @CornerstoneOil youtu.be/yol1OJaGvOU?si…

The oil market just broke in half and nobody priced it. 295 million barrels that the IEA said were sitting in storage turned out to never exist. A single historical revision flipped a 220-million-barrel surplus into a 75-million-barrel deficit across 2022-2024. The data your models run on is structurally wrong. Here is what's actually happening beneath $67 Brent: A shadow fleet of 978-3,300 tankers now carries 18-20% of global capacity. They don't report to any OECD data system. Seven percent of world crude flows through channels invisible to every major forecasting model. China imported a record 13.18 million barrels per day in December. Refinery throughput was 14.7 million. The gap: 2.67 million barrels PER DAY absorbed into strategic storage. That's a national security operation at industrial scale, and it's almost completely opaque. Meanwhile: Diesel cracks in Northwest Europe blew through $30/bbl. Permian Tier 1 acreage is 60% depleted. The EIA forecasts US crude production declining in both 2026 and 2027. Russia's National Welfare Fund lasts 12-18 months at $40 Urals. Saudi Arabia's true fiscal breakeven is $108-111/bbl, not the $90 the IMF publishes. Put options have traded at a premium to calls 93% of the time over the past decade. Upside optionality is the cheapest it's been in a generation. The $60 barrel is not an equilibrium. It is a fault line. Full 12,000-word institutional breakdown with four specific trade constructions, invalidation signals, and the 20 fault lines beneath the price — link below. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

Finding Nemo, the IEA discovers its ‘missing barrels’ Article by HE Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC Secretary General, Tuesday, 20 May 2025. Read here➡️ opec.org/sgcorner-detai…

MISSING OIL 🛢 ARAB NEWS MIKE ROTHMAN FEB 14, 2022 The Global Oil Balance is Much Tighter Than is Believed 🧵👇1/x #oilprices #CrudeOil #energycrisis #opec #ESG #GreenEnergy #fintwit #eft #oott #energy #oilandgas #SaudiArabia #RussiaUkraine #RussiaCrisis #ElectricVehicles

@EdselJim It should be obvious by now that the main objective of the IEA is to influence sentiment in the space, mainly keeping it bearish (= create the image of endless supply) since prices are mostly determined by sentiment (oil went down $20+ since Feb without much real s&d change).

The image below illustrates why US drilling activity falling and US oil production going into decline matters so much - the US has been the source of nearly all incremental oil supply globally for the past 15 years! Chart from @CornerstoneOil