Craig Dickson

51 posts

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Craig Dickson

Craig Dickson

@CraigDicksonMTM

Fundamental Analyst & Educator at MtM | weekly News Corp columnist | Course Creator | Mentor | Founder Reverse360 ASX Mentoring & Training | Bodyboarder |

Gold Coast, QLD, Australia Katılım Ocak 2026
11 Takip Edilen58 Takipçiler
Craig Dickson
Craig Dickson@CraigDicksonMTM·
Stop Trying to Make Money 🧠🤔 The crew in @MasteringMkts Gold Academy and the FUN101 course hear me say this a lot, and it's crucial to long-term success - stop trying to make money 🤓 Stay with me here 👍 A beginner mindset sees a losing position and says: ❌ "I'll wait until I get back to break even." An investor/trader mindset says: ✅ "Does this still fit my thesis?" - and then takes action. I recently closed a position at a loss. Not because I think the company is bad. Not because I think it's overvalued. In fact, I still think it's heavily undervalued. The problem was simple: The timeline blew out. The pathway changed. The end goal no longer matched what I originally invested for. My thesis broke 🤷‍♂️ Could I have sat there for another year? 100%. Could it still work out? Absolutely, and I expect it will. But it broke my rules. And rules only work if you follow them when it's uncomfortable 🫡 That's the mindset difference 🧠 Beginners focus on being right and the fear of a loss. Experienced investors and traders focus on process. When you focus on being right or are scared to take a loss, losses hurt. When you focus on process, losses become part of the game. That's why I say: stop trying to make money. Focus on executing your strategy well and the money becomes a by-product 💪💲 And the reality? Within three days I had already made the loss back and then some. Not because I'm a wizard 🧙‍♂️😆 Because capital was freed up and redeployed into opportunities that actually matched my strategy ✅ The loss didn't matter. Protecting the process did. Your portfolio doesn't care where a dollar comes from. It only cares that you consistently place capital into the highest-probability opportunities available to you 💪🫡 #InvestmentStrategy #investor #stocktrading
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Craig Dickson
Craig Dickson@CraigDicksonMTM·
@Two12834 Thanks, glad it helped you out 👍 The chart was showing less than ideal signs, but the news was telegraphed by GNC themselves in their update in Feb so bigger money distributing between then and now makes sense
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ebay two
ebay two@Two12834·
@CraigDicksonMTM Thanks, that was very helpful to understand. To help the fall, I believe it may of also been in "Distribution" on the weekly, so with bad news it fell futher than in the other phases?
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Craig Dickson
Craig Dickson@CraigDicksonMTM·
Graincorp - GNC:ASX and how to play the Agri commodity reality 👀 Being exposed to a market that’s flooded with supply is rarely a good thing as an investor/trader, but that is literally the reality of the grain market right now 🌽🚜 Right now the grain market is still dealing with: ❌ global oversupply ❌ low grain prices ❌ compressed margins And GNC were caught right in the middle of it - I flagged in @MasteringMkts Academy a month or so back that GNC did let us know abut the challenges back in February 😶‍🌫️ Unfortunately their latest half year result was poor and many were caught out 😬 With GNC it’s fair to ask “But aren’t wheat and grains meant to be pumping because of supply issues and geopolitical tension?” GNC’s result is actually a really good example of the disconnect that happens between an agricultural commodity market and the actual companies involved 💪 So despite the bullish long-term narrative…the CURRENT reality is still soft 😬 And while the commodity price itself may spike/run on fear and froth, the actual market itself usually takes time to actually be impacted by the issues the spot price market is freaking out about. This is where understanding commodity cycles matters. Usually the sequence goes: 1️⃣ supply issues begin forming 2️⃣ inventories slowly tighten 3️⃣ spot commodities react 4️⃣ then producers/processors improve later There’s often a lag. And sometimes we get what’s happened in this current case with the war where number 3 moves to number 1 in anticipation, but that anticipation takes time to play out in to on-the-ground market reality 👍 Either way, business like GNC usually benefit last in the chain. — So if you’re bullish Agri over the next 6–12 months because of: • geopolitics • fertiliser costs • weather risks • supply chain disruptions …then the cleaner trade may actually be: ➡️ commodity exposure itself - wheat/corn etc ➡️ ETFs THEN later: ➡️ businesses leveraged to improving grain margins like GNC. Bottom line: The long-term Agri setup is still very interesting. But GNC’s result was a reminder that: …the current grain market is still oversupplied and margin pressured right now 📊 The play is there, just not through GNC at the moment 🫡💪 $GNC #asx
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Craig Dickson
Craig Dickson@CraigDicksonMTM·
Oil, the gold bull case and where to watch🛢️🥇🐃 Oil is driving the short-term volatility, but central bank accumulation is still underpinning the long-term gold bull case👀 That’s the key point the market is trying to work through right now. Gold has looked heavy recently after profit taking and the sharp oil move higher. Why? Because higher oil prices: ➡️ increase inflation fears ➡️ push real yields higher ➡️ strengthen the USD ➡️ reduce Fed cut expectations All temporary headwinds for gold. But underneath the surface… - Asian buying - particularly China - continues supporting dips. That’s important. Because while Western markets have been taking profit and rotating risk around… - central banks and Asian buyers still appear structurally interested in accumulating gold reserves. And this is the key nuance: I don’t think the gold thesis is broken at all. In fact, structurally it still looks incredibly strong: • rising debt loads • geopolitical fragmentation • reserve diversification • weakening confidence in fiat systems But in the short term? Oil and energy markets are complicating the path higher. There’s also likely some sovereign liquidity management occurring in the background as elevated energy prices pressure economies and currencies. So right now we have: 👉 short-term macro pressure vs 👉 long-term structural support — Bottom line: Gold currently feels less like a broken bull market… …and more like a market being temporarily pulled between: • energy-driven inflation fears • and ongoing central bank accumulation 🟡 Our capital light small gold producers/near term producers could be a great spot to be watching as things play out 🤠 @MasteringMkts #gold #oil
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Craig Dickson
Craig Dickson@CraigDicksonMTM·
The fuel nobody wanted just became essential again. Coal plants are roaring back to life across Asia as gas supplies tighten - and one Australian miner was ready with a $2bn war chest and a game-changing move 💪 couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news… #coal $YAL #ASX
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Craig Dickson
Craig Dickson@CraigDicksonMTM·
Cochclear - COH:ASX The Healthcare sector rotation reality Do you want exposure to discretionary spending stocks right now? Probably not. Well… a bunch of Healthcare stocks are exactly that 🧐 I’ve said over the years that this idea of rotating into Healthcare as a whole defensive bucket is a bit of a fallacy 😬 A sector label doesn’t tell you how a business behaves 🫥 We’ve been talking about this in Agri for weeks in @MasteringMkts Academy - same lesson applies here crew 🫡😊 Healthcare isn’t one bucket: • some is essential • some is elective • some is discretionary COH is a perfect example. They’ve just cut FY26 earnings guidance materially 👀 The setup was already there: • guided to the low end • high cost of living • weak consumer sentiment I was expecting a softer result closer to full year…not a downgrade of this magnitude in April 🫣 I certainly didn’t see it coming. So what’s actually going on? 👉 Demand is softer in developed markets And management is clear why: 👉 Cochlear implants are still treated as a “discretionary intervention” And in this environment: • high inflation • cost of living pressure • weak sentiment 👉 discretionary spend gets delayed Guidance now: $290–330M underlying NPAT (was tracking to the low end of $435–460M) Ouch. Bottom line: This isn’t just about COH. 👉 not all “healthcare” is defensive And right now, knowing the difference really matters 📊 $CHO #asx
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