Mastering the Markets

One of the bigger copper resources in the ASX small cap space and a study due in a couple months - if you like copper you've gotta check them out 👌🙂 couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news… #copper $PVT #SmallCaps #investing

The S&P 500 has never delivered above average returns after these 18 year cycle peaks over the last 100 years. History doesn't repeat perfectly, but it often rhymes. Go back to 1900s, then every 18 years after that, and a remarkable pattern emerges. • 1918: Around a 30% decline. • 1936: More than a 55% crash. • 1954: Five years of dead money. • 1972: Nearly a 50% crash. • 1990: Around 20% total return over the following five to seven years. Positive, but still below the long term average. • 2008: More than a 50% crash. Not once over the last century has this point in the cycle delivered above average long term returns. Now ask yourself... Do you really think it's a coincidence that the Gold-to-Dow ratio is sitting on major support seen only a handful of times in history? Do you think it's a coincidence that the Buffett Indicator is at the highest level ever recorded, the Shiller P/E is approaching dot-com extremes, and almost every major valuation metric is flashing red? Or do you think this time is different because of AI? Investors said the same thing during the dot-com boom. They said it when automobiles transformed the economy. They said it when radio arrived. They said it again when television changed the world. Every generation believes a new technology has rewritten the rules. It never does. Technology changes. Human psychology doesn't. Markets move in cycles. Valuations matter. The COVID decline wasn't a true secular bear market. It lasted only weeks before unprecedented stimulus pushed markets to new highs. The 2022 decline was painful, but it wasn't the kind of prolonged wealth destruction seen in 1929, 1973 or 2008. Most investors today have never lived through a genuine secular bear market. When one eventually arrives, it has a way of humbling people very quickly. History never guarantees the future. But ignoring over 100 years of evidence because "this time is different" has rarely ended well.

As part of its new deal with Michael Jordan, Upper Deck has inserted redemptions in its Goodwin Champions product that hits this Thursday. There are 23 redemptions for Jordan signed 1986 Fleer packs that could contain Jordan’s rookie inside. No. 12 is signed “Rookie Pack”

Which company has built their mining empire so fast people are only just noticing what's happened? 🧐💪 couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news… #gold #GoldSignals @ForrestaniaRes $FRS #investing #stockmarkets

BTC/TLT (Bitcoin against Bonds) Did you know there are five major asset classes that investors typically allocate across? Cash, bonds, gold and commodities, equities, and crypto. If you think of them on a risk spectrum, cash sits at one end as the lowest risk, followed by bonds. Gold has traditionally been viewed as a defensive asset, sitting somewhere between bonds and equities. Equities are growth assets, while crypto sits at the highest end of the risk spectrum. This chart compares Bitcoin, one of the highest-risk assets ever created, against bonds, one of the lowest-risk asset classes. For most of Bitcoin's existence, it has massively outperformed bonds. But something interesting is starting to happen. We've now broken a trendline that has held since Bitcoin's early years. The ratio also appears to be breaking down from a large rising wedge. Historically, the red dots have marked areas where buyers stepped in and the ratio found support. This time looks different. For the first time, we're starting to break below that structure. That raises an interesting question. Most people expect a major Bitcoin bottom around October because of the halving cycle. But what if they're wrong? What if, just as we've seen in many altcoins, this isn't the final low? What if this is only Wave A of a much larger correction that's still unfolding? If that happened, it would force investors to rethink a lot of assumptions. What would that mean for companies like MicroStrategy, whose strategy is built around accumulating Bitcoin? What would it do to sentiment across the entire crypto market? Would it shake confidence in the long-term Bitcoin narrative? Here's another thought. What if Bitcoin doesn't enter another powerful bull market or a deep bear market from here? What if it spends the next several years moving sideways? We often talk about two market environments: bull markets and bear markets. But there's a third that gets overlooked. The kangaroo market. A market that goes nowhere, frustrating both bulls and bears while moving sideways for years. Bitcoin has experienced incredible bull runs and brutal bear markets throughout its history. But perhaps it still hasn't experienced its first true long-term kangaroo market. It's not a prediction. It's simply a strong possibility that deserves consideration.

"...but supply!" is one of the most common responses you'll hear when someone has zero education on cycles of assets. The thing is, supply matters, but it's only one side of the equation. Prices are driven by supply and demand. You can have a housing shortage and still get weak price growth if: People can't borrow Interest rates are high Unemployment rises Consumer confidence falls Policies change You're seeing the cycle play out perfectly in real time.

I was a tad late.

Over 300 people ready for an amazing day. GC Live officially kicks off!

Massive signs are starting to appear that the low may already be in for the Australian share market. At the start of the year, I said on our free webinar that I expected 2026 to be choppy, frustrating, and difficult for investors. That's pretty much exactly how it's played out. The good news? The evidence is now starting to shift. We're seeing multiple sectors turn higher, key technical signals improve, and the broader market show signs that it may be ready to resume its uptrend. While nothing is ever guaranteed, there are growing reasons to believe the next few months could look very different from the first half of the year. I've put together a detailed breakdown covering the major sectors, key charts, and the technical signals I'm watching right now. If you want to see exactly what I'm seeing and why I believe the Australian market could trend higher from here, jump into the Free Academy and check out my latest report. academy.masteringthemarkets.com/c/mtm-educator… The first half of the year was tough. The next quarter might be where the opportunities start showing up.

Will the RBA hike rates again tomorrow?

Australia just killed crypto privacy. July 1st and most Aussies have no idea.

Looking forward to speaking at the 2026 Gold Coast Investment Showcase! I'll be taking the stage at 3:00pm on Friday 12 June, sharing the stage with the lovely Kerry Stevenson from Gold Events as we present The Investment Cycle. If you're attending the conference, come along and say hello. It would be great to meet members of the MtM community and connect with fellow investors. 📍 JW Marriott Gold Coast Resort & Spa 📅 Friday 12 June 2026 🕒 3:00pm Hopefully see you there!

Nzcryptocon what an event. It was fantastic to be back in New Zealand and see the energy, passion, and growth of the crypto community firsthand. A huge congratulations to everyone involved in making NZCryptoCon such a success. We were incredibly proud to be the official education partner and to connect with so many people throughout the event. Given the turnout and enthusiasm, I'm sure it'll be back on the calendar again next year. We'll certainly be looking forward to it. Now it's time to turn our attention to Sydney dor Auscryptocon for what will likely be tens of thousandsin attendance. We're excited to continue as the official education partner and can't wait to see everyone at AusCryptoCon this November. See you there!

Inaugural Day 1 complete. What a day and cool mix of interesting folks checking in on what crypto is up to. The MtM team had a few stage visits with more scheduled for tomorrow. @ASX__Trader will be up on stage Sunday, along with Craig Tapping. Two of our best sharing some insights. Check it out and come and say hello. @nzcryptocon

NZCryptocon kicks off!

Day 1 of @nzcryptocon is done! 💥 It was incredible start to the weekend to get to meet so many of our Kiwi customers and have such engaging conversations around crypto in New Zealand both on and off the stage. A drop in from the @BluesRugbyTeam also made the day just a little bluer too 💙 Bring on day 2! And if you didn’t get time to stop by the Swyftx booth today, come say hi tomorrow and spin the wheel to score some Swyftx merch or crypto prizes 🪎

Taken from Daily telegraph yesterday. Charts led the news. Australia’s economy is officially slowing down, as cost-of-living pressures, surging oil prices and slowing government spending combine for a lacklustre result. KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne said the national economy had slowed to a crawl and there was no growth in sight. Investment Fund VanEck’s head of investment and capital markets Russel Chesler warned slowing growth could lead to stagflation. “Australia could now well be entering a stagflation regime of low growth and high inflation,” Mr Chesler said. “GDP is falling while unemployment is rising and inflation is surging.” Stagflation is the worst possible outcome for an economy as it combines high costs, rising unemployment and little to no growth. In a press conference following Wednesday’s GDP release treasurer Jim Chalmers was quizzed on Australia’s slowing productivity. Productivity – which is a measure of the nation’s GDP divided by hours worked- fell by 0.6 per cent over the March quarter. This effectively means Australians are working more hours and are getting less.

Stop Trying to Make Money 🧠🤔 The crew in @MasteringMkts Gold Academy and the FUN101 course hear me say this a lot, and it's crucial to long-term success - stop trying to make money 🤓 Stay with me here 👍 A beginner mindset sees a losing position and says: ❌ "I'll wait until I get back to break even." An investor/trader mindset says: ✅ "Does this still fit my thesis?" - and then takes action. I recently closed a position at a loss. Not because I think the company is bad. Not because I think it's overvalued. In fact, I still think it's heavily undervalued. The problem was simple: The timeline blew out. The pathway changed. The end goal no longer matched what I originally invested for. My thesis broke 🤷‍♂️ Could I have sat there for another year? 100%. Could it still work out? Absolutely, and I expect it will. But it broke my rules. And rules only work if you follow them when it's uncomfortable 🫡 That's the mindset difference 🧠 Beginners focus on being right and the fear of a loss. Experienced investors and traders focus on process. When you focus on being right or are scared to take a loss, losses hurt. When you focus on process, losses become part of the game. That's why I say: stop trying to make money. Focus on executing your strategy well and the money becomes a by-product 💪💲 And the reality? Within three days I had already made the loss back and then some. Not because I'm a wizard 🧙‍♂️😆 Because capital was freed up and redeployed into opportunities that actually matched my strategy ✅ The loss didn't matter. Protecting the process did. Your portfolio doesn't care where a dollar comes from. It only cares that you consistently place capital into the highest-probability opportunities available to you 💪🫡 #InvestmentStrategy #investor #stocktrading

Consumer sentiment has hit its lowest in history . One thing that really stands out on this chart… Look how many recession periods there used to be. Back in the 60s, 70s, 80s and even early 90s, recessions happened regularly. The economy would boom, reset, recover… then repeat the cycle. But since the GFC? We’ve basically only had one brief recession during COVID, and even that was heavily cushioned by massive stimulus, money printing and emergency intervention. Now look at consumer sentiment. Historically, whenever sentiment drops this low something has usually already broken underneath the surface. That’s what makes this chart so interesting to me. Consumers already feel recessionary… even though markets are still elevated and many economists continue debating whether a recession is even coming. There’s a real disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street right now. The average person feels it every day: • Higher food prices • Higher insurance costs • Higher rent and mortgage repayments • Rising energy bills • Working harder just to maintain the same lifestyle People are exhausted. And here’s the part that’s actually quite scary… Recessions are healthy. Nobody likes hearing that, but historically recessions are part of how economies reset excesses. Weak businesses fail. Debt gets cleared out. Speculation cools down. Asset bubbles deflate. The system resets and starts rebuilding again. The problem is… we’ve delayed that process for so long now. Every slowdown since 2008 has been met with: • Lower rates • More stimulus • More liquidity • More debt • More intervention That helps short term pain. But over time it also creates bigger imbalances underneath the surface: • Record debt levels • Inflated asset prices • Housing affordability problems • Speculative behaviour everywhere • Massive dependence on cheap money It’s a bit like a forest. Small fires are healthy because they clear out the dead wood. But if you suppress every small fire for decades, eventually you create the conditions for one enormous uncontrollable fire. Maybe this time really is different. Or maybe we’ve simply delayed the economic cycle so long that when the reset finally comes, it becomes one of the largest economic adjustments most people alive have ever experienced.