Chris Carollo

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Chris Carollo

Chris Carollo

@CrazyTalk

Developer on L4D2, Dota 2, and Steam at Valve. Thief and DX:IW before that. Gameplay and machine learning. Comments my own. BLM Accountability in Policing

Seattle, WA Katılım Ekim 2008
89 Takip Edilen182 Takipçiler
Matthew Yglesias
Matthew Yglesias@mattyglesias·
Hardly a new story at this point but one that’s still making its way through American politics…
Benjamin Ryan@benryanwriter

Indicators of Major Psychiatric Problems Didn't Improve After Youth Gender-Transition Treatment In Finland—They Rose benryan.substack.com/p/youth-on-gen… The study, which was based on comprehensive nationalized health data and included control groups, calls into question the claim that such treatment is broadly beneficial to mental health.

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Chris Carollo
Chris Carollo@CrazyTalk·
@flounder2200 @Youknowthatin @mattyglesias And, admittedly anecdotally, but "1-in-10 GD folks have severe psychological issues pre-treatment, but 6-in-10 do afterwards" just does not align with anything that I've actually seen.
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Chris Carollo
Chris Carollo@CrazyTalk·
@flounder2200 @Youknowthatin @mattyglesias My beef is mostly that people are reading this as proof that GD treatment causes harm, and while it may point in that direction, without knowing what the post-GD-presentation treatment is for, and what their outcomes are, it just seems like a inconclusive proxy to me.
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Chris Carollo
Chris Carollo@CrazyTalk·
@flounder2200 @Youknowthatin @mattyglesias I never said it was wrong, but it does raise a bunch of questions for me: - Why measure treatment not outcomes? - Why does the post-presentation, GR+ group rise to match the treatment rate of the GR- group? - Why is the pre-presentation treatment rate of the GR+ so much lower?
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flounder2200
flounder2200@flounder2200·
@CrazyTalk @Youknowthatin @mattyglesias "Why am I so eager to come up with a list of 'problems' with a study I haven't read, whose design I don't know?" To be blunt, this reminds me *exactly* of discussions of climate-science papers with self-described "skeptics". They don't know the science but they know it's wrong.
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Sebastian H
Sebastian H@Sebastian_Hols·
@CrazyTalk @flounder2200 @Youknowthatin @mattyglesias That’s the kind of objection that I totally believe could cause small effects, but it seems very unlikely, that all across the country, across a sample size that large, that is happening at the magnitude we are talking about.
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Chris Carollo
Chris Carollo@CrazyTalk·
@Sebastian_Hols @flounder2200 @Youknowthatin @mattyglesias Also, the thing I find most surprising about the data is that the "pre-clinic-presentation-but-do-undergo-treatment" quadrant has such low levels of serious treatment; all the others, treated or not, are in the 50-60% range. I'd love more investigation into that.
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Chris Carollo
Chris Carollo@CrazyTalk·
@flounder2200 @Youknowthatin @mattyglesias Right, that's why I mean the "before state" -- was the same level of scrutiny and monitoring provided/given to the non-control cohort before and after first presenting to clinics? If not, the fact that they got more treatment after isn't really indicative of a problem.
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flounder2200
flounder2200@flounder2200·
@CrazyTalk @Youknowthatin @mattyglesias There was no selected “before cohort” of patients because all patients in the entire country were included both before and after. You don’t seem to have a very clear understanding of the study design.
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Chris Carollo
Chris Carollo@CrazyTalk·
@benryanwriter @mattyglesias I don't think that's true; she's saying that interventions don't change treatment rates. That's not the same as outcomes being identical. Which is kind of my whole complaint about using treatment rates as a proxy for things!
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Benjamin Ryan
Benjamin Ryan@benryanwriter·
@CrazyTalk @mattyglesias In Finland, specialist psychiatric care is typically reserved for those with more severe mental health problems.
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Chris Carollo
Chris Carollo@CrazyTalk·
@flounder2200 @Youknowthatin @mattyglesias Yeah I mean you're quoting the study I'm criticizing. The question is whether the "before" state is a reasonable control -- ie. do care levels change after treatment, are the "before" cohort randomly selected, etc.
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Chris Carollo
Chris Carollo@CrazyTalk·
@arindube This chart only goes to 2019, but this was also true in the ~2022 tight economy too, right?
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Arin Dube
Arin Dube@arindube·
A striking fact I learnt researching my book: For those in the bottom half, much of the real wage growth between 1979 and 2019 happened over just 7 "tight" years. For top wages, full employment wasn't a big deal. For bottom wages, it was the nearly the whole game.
Arin Dube tweet media
Arin Dube@arindube

What's behind the ebbs and flows in wages over the past century? That’s what my forthcoming book, The Wage Standard, is all about: how rules, norms, and power in the labor market shape who shares in growth. Coming out March 31. Pre-order here: thewagestandard.com

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Noam Scheiber
Noam Scheiber@noamscheiber·
A lot of people ended up with much smaller wage premiums, while a smaller number of people ended up getting much bigger wage premiums. The distribution looked more like so 4/
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Noam Scheiber
Noam Scheiber@noamscheiber·
Wanted to take more time responding to the objection to my essay about struggling college grads from @mattyglesias, who notes the avg college wage premium is still very high today. That's true, but I think misses the big shift over the past generation. 1/ x.com/mattyglesias/s…
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Chris Carollo
Chris Carollo@CrazyTalk·
@K9Fiferr @besttrousers @JadeAtrophis You claimed "most [Somali immigrant] adults are unemployed" and that's not true. But clearly you just finding justifications for being racist and moving goalposts so I'm just going to block and move on with my day.
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