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Using Claude Fable 5, I built a model that predicts the entire 2026 FIFA world cup.. every single game, not just the final.. so let me break the whole thing down. what it does, how it works, and exactly how i built it.. #1 First what it does: it predicts all 104 games of the tournament. not just who lifts the trophy, but every group match, every knockout, the full path from the round of 32 to the final.. everything lands in one dashboard: 
> group stage, every match with each team's win % and the chance of a draw
> standings, how all 12 groups are projected to finish
> bracket, the full knockout tree with each team's odds of advancing
> champion odds, who's most likely to actually win it all and it doesn't freeze after one prediction. the moment a real game is played, it locks that result in and re-runs everything around it. so the odds move live as the tournament goes, week by week you watch favorites rise and contenders collapse. #2. How it works: the core idea is simple. the model only ever predicts one thing, a single match. the real trick is the repetition. it learns from decades of match history, then plays the whole tournament out from the first game to the final, tens of thousands of times. each run it records who advanced and who won. do that enough and you stop getting one guess and start getting real odds, one team lifts the trophy in maybe 14% of the runs, another in 9%, and so on. #3. So, how i built it ? i didn't hand-write most of the code. i broke the project into 4 pieces, described each one to fable, and let it build while i focused on getting the football logic exactly right. - The data 
every international match going back over a century, around 50,000 games, plus each team's elo rating, which is the truest measure of strength, and the official 2026 schedule. garbage data means garbage predictions, so this part mattered most. - The features 
i turned that raw history into signals the model can learn from, the elo gap between the two teams, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and a home boost for the hosts, usa, canada and mexico. - The model 
for each match it predicts the expected goals for both sides, then turns that into win, draw and loss probabilities plus a likely scoreline. that's what feeds the simulation. - The tournament engine 
this was the hard part. the 2026 world cup is brand new, 48 teams, 12 groups, a round of 32 that's never existed before, and 8 "best third-placed" teams that slot into the bracket by a fixed fifa table. even the group tiebreakers changed this year, head to head now counts before goal difference. get any of it wrong and the whole bracket falls apart, so i built it carefully and tested the format until it was exact, then wrapped it in a simulation loop that plays the tournament out tens of thousands of times. and the last piece, the live part. as real results come in, they get locked, and only the unplayed games get re-simulated. that's what makes it a living model instead of a one-time prediction. all of it outputs to a clean dashboard you can actually read and screenshot.. right now, before kickoff, it already has a clear favorite to lift the trophy.. 👀 btw who's your pick to win the 2026 world cup?