CryptoJoe.avax

Hey @BlubBlobCoin, Been in the $AVAX ecosystem long enough that I remember getting a Good Bridging Airdrop. Wasn’t able to get into $Ket or $Wink, but bought in on launch day. Would love to be included in the $Blub presale!

@pete_rizzo_ @mehere114

#BITCOIN'S MRV-Z SCORE JUST DROPPED BELOW 1 FOR THE 6th TIME IN ITS 17 YEAR HISTORY EACH TIME IT'S GONE UP AT LEAST 700% YOU'VE BEEN WARNED 🚀🚀

@mehere114 @chartsMovesNews I think seasonality is interesting to take into account. Traditionally we see positive PA in early March with a lower low coming in April/May and then another positive PA rally in the summer (like this post points out) with a bottom in Q3. Who knows if that seasonality holds

@CryptoJoeTFM @chartsMovesNews Lol was gonna tag you in this but didn’t want to spread hopium after you’re short 😅

I realized something today : This is almost everybody's FIRST bear market in the MT community (my bubble) So obviously, the nature of the PA is a lot different/difficult to handle as we are new to this phase of the game (at least I am!) Since the thesis pertained to us expecting upside in a HTF downtrend, that's when it clicked for me and I properly started backtesting and re-tracing old bullish swings that occurred during the previous bear market/HTF bearish downtrend. Realized MT didn't even bother talking about the fact that btc broke its HTF structure in his last few posts wrt the supposed local bottom This particular 'bull swing' situation is from June to august 2022 where we had already lost HTF bullish structure on btc (so similar-ish?). There we saw : - USDT went to 9ish% (during bear market '22) and saw a plunge downwards by around 41% - OTHERS saw a push upto 82% - BTC had a 43% pump Just thought it'd be interesting to share my findings is all and not to influence anyones thought process

@CryptoChase02 @mehere114

3 Doji candlesticks in a row on ETH with increasing volume while floating inside 1W BB on ETHBTC. Looks like a bottom signal to me, but the market structure doesn't look too favourable. I think next week will be quite interesting.

Before the US MID ELECTIONS

@Nebraskangooner @mehere114

#Bitcoin Enthusiasm fades.

@VECTORCP we only get 12-24 hours of good PA lol

Take profit Gn #bitcoin

@mehere114 we r cooked

@DraftKings @JClipperton_CP Congratulations on your moral victory and your silver medals…

Nathan MacKinnon kept it short and sweet postgame 😳 (H/T @JClipperton_CP)

@Pentosh1 @mehere114

Think $BTC will retest 74-80k in the next 2 weeks. If we get there, we can re-evaluate. But thats where I think we are heading personally.

@CryptoChase02 @mehere114

$ETH

@seth_fin @grok @mehere114

The whales on Binance dumped $BTC and $ETH hard today. The selling volume on Binance today is 38 times larger than on Coinbase. Massive selling pressure. @Grok Why would they sell on an illiquid Sunday? 😅 #Bitcoin

@BigCheds @mehere - we r cooked

hmmm Chat what do we think $BTC

@TheOtherParker_ @mehere114

This was the highest volume day on $IBIT, ever, by a factor of nearly 2x, trading $10.7B today. Additionally, roughly $900M in options premiums were traded today, also the highest ever for IBIT. Given these facts and the way $BTC and $SOL traded down in lockstep today (normally SOL trades with beta) + the relatively lower liquidations on CeFi exchanges, this leads me to believe that the nexus of the problem lies with a large IBIT holder. IBIT has become the #1 venue for BTC options trading, so my guess is that a hedge fund trading IBIT options is the culprit. If you look at the 13F filings for IBIT (I like whalewisdom dot com), you'll find a number of interesting names that have the majority of their fund in IBIT. In fact, there are a few in there (not naming names) that have 100% of their fund in IBIT, which likely means no cross margin. In fact, the biggest reason to set up a fund to hold a single asset would be to isolate margin, so that if the trade blew up, the brokers wouldn't have claim to any other assets. Interestingly, most of these giant, single asset funds are based in HK. We know that Asian traders, particularly in China, have been deeply involved in the Silver and Gold trade. Silver was down 20% today, which was the 2nd largest 1 day move in a very long time (largest on Jan 30). We also know that the JPY carry trade has been unwinding at an increasingly rapid pace. This leads me to think that the culprit for the IBIT blowup today was 1 or more HK-based non-crypto hedge funds. As @FranklinBi pointed out, the fund(s) being non-crypto would explain why no one sniffed them out. They would likely have few/no crypto counterparties, meaning complete isolation from CT. The last small piece of evidence I have is that I personally know a number of HK-based hedge funds that are holders of $DFDV, which had the worst single down day ever, with a meaningful mNAV decline. The mNAV had been holding steady surprisingly well throughout this pull back until today. One of these fund(s) could have been connected to the IBIT culprit, as I highly doubt a fund taking that large of a position in IBIT and using a single entity structure would only have the one fund. Now, I could easily see how the fund(s) could have been running a levered options trade on IBIT (think way OTM calls = ultra high gamma) with borrowed capital in JPY. Oct 10th could very well have blown a hole in their balance sheet, that they tried to win back by adding leverage waiting for the "obvious" rebound. As that led to increased losses, coupled with increased funding costs in JPY, I could see how the fund(s) would have gotten more desperate and hopped on the Silver trade. When that blew up, things got dire and this last push in BTC finished them off. I have no hard evidence here, just some hunches and bread crumbs, but it does seem very plausible. Let's see if some more concrete evidence floats to the surface here soon. The smoking gun will be a large fund fitting this profile filing a 13F showing a giant IBIT holding going to zero. Unfortunately, if a fund had their IBIT position liquidated today, they wouldn't have to disclose the position change until 45 days after the quarter end, so we'd be looking at mid May for the smoking gun from 13F filings most likely. Hopefully some of you out there with too much time on your hands this weekend can snoop around more. My guess is that word will start to get out, because something of this size is just too hard to hide. Additionally, if the broker was not able to liquidate the fund in time, the broker may have a hole in their balance sheet, which would be even more difficult to hide.

@intocryptoverse @mehere114

One common pattern in midterm years for #BTC is that we see a lot of weakness going into early February, followed by strength into March. Then weakness again going into April/May.

@chimpp It’s funny how the sentiment was the exact opposite last July

The moment when the winds of fortune reversed

@mehere114 @CryptoChase02

@CryptoJoeTFM @CryptoChase02 Good comedy before we jump off a bridge

Slingshot.

@BigCheds @mehere114

$BTC with Ten (10) 4H red candles in a row

@luckychartape @mehere114

I am Swing long for new All time High's on $BTC #bitcoin If we bounce here it looks really clean.. If we break this down..well.. I will be taking a stop loss on this swing.