CryptoStreet

I tracked every Bitcoin halving cycle since 2012. The pattern is almost too clean: 2012: +9,000% in 18 months 2016: +2,800% in 18 months 2020: +700% in 18 months 2024: we're 12 months in. Here's what the data says happens next 🧵

Everyone is calling this a bear market. The 365-day MVRV says otherwise. At -26%, the average holder who bought in the last year is deep underwater. Historically, this is where long-term bottoms form -- not where bear markets begin. The last 3 times MVRV hit this level: 2015, 2019, 2022. All were within 2 months of a macro bottom. Full on-chain breakdown: cryptostreet.io/blog/mvrv-on-c… #Bitcoin #BTC #OnChain

365-day MVRV at -26%. The last time it was this low, BTC was at $16K. New research dropping today on what on-chain risk metrics are actually saying about this correction versus previous bear markets. #Bitcoin #BTC

What we're watching this week: -- $65K BTC support. Held twice. A third test in a falling market rarely holds. Below that: $60K-$62K. -- CLARITY Act returns from Easter recess April 13. Banking Committee markup window is tight -- May is the hard deadline per Senator Moreno. -- April 2 JOLTS data + April 4 NFP. The Fed needs labor market weakness to justify a cut. Strong prints = higher for longer = more pain for risk assets. -- ETH staking yield via ETHB. BlackRock's staked ETH ETF is still pulling inflows while everything else bleeds. Worth monitoring as a sentiment divergence signal. #Bitcoin #Crypto #WhatWereWatching

The outflows are macro-driven, not crypto-specific. Brent crude at $116. 10Y yield at 4.2%. DXY above 100. Every risk asset is under pressure. Bitcoin ETFs are behaving exactly like equity ETFs in a risk-off environment.

The 4-week inflow streak that preceded this totaled $2.2B. One week of $296M outflows doesn't erase that. Net March flows are still positive. ETF AUM dropped from $90B to $84.77B. But most of that decline is mark-to-market from BTC price dropping 7% -- not actual capital leaving.

Thread: Why the ETF outflows are less scary than they look. $296M left Bitcoin ETFs this week. Headlines called it a "BlackRock sell-off." Here's what actually happened:

David Sacks confirmed his 130-day term as White House AI and crypto czar expired March 26. No replacement. The CLARITY Act returns from Easter recess April 13. If the Banking Committee doesn't markup by May, Senator Moreno says digital asset legislation won't move until 2027. Meanwhile, the Coinbase stablecoin yield dispute remains the single biggest obstacle to passage. We broke down the full legislative timeline and what it means for markets: cryptostreet.io/blog/clarity-a… #Crypto #CLARITYAct #Regulation

David Sacks confirmed his 130-day term as White House AI and crypto czar expired March 26. No replacement. The CLARITY Act returns from Easter recess April 13. If the Banking Committee doesn't markup by May, Senator Moreno says digital asset legislation won't move until 2027. Meanwhile, the Coinbase stablecoin yield dispute remains the single biggest obstacle to passage. We broke down the full legislative timeline and what it means for markets: cryptostreet.io/blog/clarity-a… #Crypto #CLARITYAct #Regulation

The White House no longer has a crypto czar. The CLARITY Act has 16 days until its make-or-break date. And the stablecoin yield dispute that stalled the bill for 3 months just went public. New analysis dropping today. #Crypto #CLARITYAct

Market Monday. BTC: $66.2K (-7.1% WoW) ETH: $1,993 (-8% WoW) XRP: $1.33 SOL: range-bound ETF flows flipped negative for the first time in a month. BlackRock pulled $201.5M from IBIT in 2 days -- largest outflow since January. Key level: $65K. If that breaks, the next support cluster sits near $60K-$62K. If it holds, the $70K reclaim is the first hurdle. Macro still driving everything. Brent at $116. 10Y at 4.2%. Dollar index above 100. Risk assets have nowhere to hide until the Fed blinks. #Bitcoin #Crypto #MarketMonday

Market Monday. BTC: $66.2K (-7.1% WoW) ETH: $1,993 (-8% WoW) XRP: $1.33 SOL: range-bound ETF flows flipped negative for the first time in a month. BlackRock pulled $201.5M from IBIT in 2 days -- largest outflow since January. Key level: $65K. If that breaks, the next support cluster sits near $60K-$62K. If it holds, the $70K reclaim is the first hurdle. Macro still driving everything. Brent at $116. 10Y at 4.2%. Dollar index above 100. Risk assets have nowhere to hide until the Fed blinks. #Bitcoin #Crypto #MarketMonday

Bitcoin ETFs just posted 4 consecutive weeks of net inflows -- the longest streak of 2026. BlackRock's IBIT drove $1.7B of the $2B total. Post-FOMC outflows reversed in 48 hours. $90B in AUM is building a floor under this market. cryptostreet.io/blog/bernstein… #Bitcoin #BTC

BTC is down 47% from ATH. Fear & Greed in the teens. ETF outflows accelerating. But 365-day MVRV sits at -26% -- historically one of the lowest-risk accumulation zones in Bitcoin's existence. Question for the timeline: Are you accumulating here or waiting for lower? #Bitcoin #BTC

BTC: $71.3K to $66.2K (-7.1%) ETH: $2,166 to $1,993 (-8%) The week in 5 data points: 1. ETF 4-week inflow streak broke -- $296M in outflows. BlackRock IBIT alone: -$201.5M, largest exit in 2 months. 2. BTC touched $65.5K -- lowest since early March. 3. White House crypto czar David Sacks' term expired. No replacement named. 4. CLARITY Act stalled again over Coinbase stablecoin yield dispute. April 13 is now the deadline. 5. Whale wallets (100+ BTC) grew by 753 in 3 months despite the selloff. The institutions are selling. The whales are buying. Same pattern, every cycle. #Bitcoin #BTC #WeekInReview

Strategy added 86,000 BTC in 2026 alone. Their new STRC preferred share means the buying continues without diluting shareholders. Bernstein calls them "the Bitcoin bank of last resort." At 762K BTC, it is hard to argue. cryptostreet.io/blog/bernstein… #Bitcoin #BTC

Bernstein ($867B AUM) just called this the weakest bear case in Bitcoin history. The data backs it up: - $2B in ETF inflows over 4 straight weeks - Strategy holds 762,099 BTC - $90B in sticky institutional AUM The buyers have changed. Full breakdown: cryptostreet.io/blog/bernstein… #Bitcoin #BTC

@apyx_fi meanwhile BTC exchange reserves just hit all-time lows at 2.43-2.7M BTC, down from 3.2M in 2023. the supply squeeze is real — and it's not just institutions, it's the DeFi yield infrastructure absorbing supply too. $STRC accumulation fits the pattern.

They sell, we buy. Apyx just added 111,112 shares of $STRC, bringing total holdings to 400,000. Onchain digital credit yield is taking over DeFi.

@CoinDesk @leifthunder @rshorten @RasterlyRock @JennSanasie @NYSE Circle up 100% in a month while only 57% of BTC supply is in profit — interesting divergence. stablecoin infrastructure is outperforming the underlying assets right now. Mastercard just dropped $1.8B on BVNK too. the pipes are getting built whether price cooperates or not.

Circle shares are up more than 100% in the past month and more on staked ETH ETFs after BlackRock's ETHB saw over $150M of inflows. @leifthunder, @rshorten and @RasterlyRock join @JennSanasie at @NYSE to talk crypto and more. x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

CLARITY Act reps are literally on Capitol Hill today reviewing the stablecoin yield deal. Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise cleared last week, markup targeted for second half of April. first coherent regulatory framework since the SEC-CFTC joint interpretation on March 17. things are moving fast.

Today in a nutshell.