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@CernBasher When will consumers be able to purchase robotaxis or enable their existing Tesla vehicles for ride-hailing services?
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What happens when Tesla Robotaxi goes live?
Tesla’s Robotaxi launch, set for June in Austin, Texas, is generating buzz. Initially, Tesla may deploy safety drivers to monitor operations, but the transition to fully unsupervised Robotaxi service will soon follow.
So, what could unfold in the months and quarters after this milestone?
I've identified four possible effects:
1) Halo Effect - Seeing Tesla Robotaxis autonomously shuttling passengers will spark excitement, driving demand for Tesla vehicles.
"I want me one of 'em self-driving machines so I can sleep while I go to work."
2) Add-On Effect - Current Tesla owners who haven’t opted for Full Self-Driving (FSD) may be inspired to purchase or subscribe to it, eager to tap into the autonomous driving experience showcased by Robotaxi.
"Honey, you're right - I am a terrible driver, it's time to get FSD!"
3) Opportunity Effect - Entrepreneurs and companies will see Robotaxi as a business opportunity, ordering Cybercabs or other Tesla models to build their own fleets. Meanwhile, ride-hail drivers may ditch platforms like Uber, investing in Teslas to generate passive income through autonomous rides.
"Make money while I go to the beach - heck yeah - I'm buying two!"
4) Value Effect - The used Tesla market will shift. Vehicles equipped with purchased FSD and AI4 hardware could see their value rise. Older models, if upgradeable to AI4 or AI5 with compatible camera suites, may also appreciate.
"I'm gonna go knock on Dan's door and see if he will sell me his used Tesla - hopefully he doesn't realize just how valuable it is."
Now, let's look at some potential profit numbers for the first three effects (I've previously examined the 4th effect - see post below):
The table above shows the impact of a 10% increase across all three effects (10% higher demand for Tesla vehicles & FSD - broken out by geographic regions). In this analysis I assumed that 1/3 purchase FSD and 2/3 subscribe.
USA - In the USA there are currently about 3 million Tesla vehicles. If Robotaxi creates 10% more demand in each of the three effects, then Tesla would earn another $7.5 billion in gross profit. Or alternatively, for every 1% incremental demand, that's about $750 million in gross profit.
China - In China there are currently about 2.4 million Tesla vehicles. If Robotaxi creates 10% more demand in each of the three effects, then Tesla would earn another $6 billion in gross profit. Or alternatively, for every 1% incremental demand, that's about $600 million in gross profit.
Europe - In Europe there are currently about 1.5 million Tesla vehicles. The same analysis shows that Tesla would earn another $3.7 billion in gross profit. Or alternatively, for every 1% incremental demand, that's about $370 million in gross profit.
Total World - If we extend the analysis to the entire world, it shows that Tesla would earn another $19 billion in gross profit. Or alternatively, for every 1% incremental demand, that's about $1.9 billion in gross profit.
Here's the same numbers displayed in a chart...
I'm not suggesting that all three of these effects happen immediately or even at the same time, but hopefully you can get a sense of the potential impact of each one.
Also, the fact that many people would choose to subscribe to FSD makes these numbers a bit messy - as we're comparing apples (one-time revenues) and oranges (recurring revenues).
To simplify the analysis we can assume that all FSD is purchased -- here's how the numbers look...
Every 1% incremental demand, that's about an $1.0 billion increase in gross profit in the USA and $2.6 billion worldwide.




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Tariffs bear case is overblown.
In 2022, imports accounted for 22% of GDP.
In 2023, Imports were:
- 27% consumer goods
- 26% capital goods
- 25% industrial supplies
- 6% food and beverages
I don't see how this will be a meaningful impact on prices; rather corporates may choose to ride the narrative, as they did with covid, to price gouge.
Trump has already warned companies not to price gouge during this time - let's see how that plays out.
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Is the right dominating discourse because it’s better at new media distribution? Which seems to be your point.
Or do people actually have a brain and choose to listen to right wing media more than left wing because it resonates more with their reality? Therefore you see the discrepancy you’re pointing out.
I mean if Trevor Noah is your biggest talking head on the left…you’re in trouble.
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1. What you see here is clearest illustration why things are so messed up and why it cannot get any better until this asymmetry is addressed.
Put simply: right-wing has narrative dominance.
My org (@mmfa) did this study and been sounding this alarm for years. Some thoughts...

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This kid is set for life with his attitude and skill. Founder DNA through and through. You're crazy if you don't think VCs aren't salivating to fund whatever he builds next.
He doesn't need Columbia, Columbia needs him. They'll lose a lot in reputation if they keep escalating - if they haven't already.
A "professional" job is what people do when they can't be founders. It's slavery. Fuck a professional job.
Roy is David; Amazon and Columbia are Goliath.
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Short update here: sometimes you build something cool and have to remove it later again ... that happened today. But in the end we got a good solution for the most requested feature the Wallet Management. This is a big step, because now fractrade can automatically execute your trades / risk management etc. And you dont need to run a client anymore.
For now we have planned quite a few more agents which add missing features to Hyperliquid like a trailing stop, etc. Doing this trading challenge was quite distracting and we made a lot of mistakes, but in the end we learned from it and our agents will fix them :) So all good, and we will have a great product soon.
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@thesigmamindset So does this mean if you’re a low performer and sit to a high performer you bring them down but they bring you up?
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@stevewilldoit bro pls I lost 40k on TRUMP, 1k and i'll make it all back and double it for the next person
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Speak up little man we can't hear you

@jason@Jason
Just ban these stupid fucking meme coins @SECGov
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