Zagros

These aren't "reciprocal" tariffs. That branding has already fooled many into thinking that other countries can simply lower their tariffs and things can stay as they are. But the numbers the Trump admin cooked up aren't based on tariffs that can be removed - they're based on trade deficits. And those trade deficits will only be reduced by Americans buying fewer goods from those countries in favor of US goods. This isn't a negotiation. The Trump admin wants Americans consuming American made goods at all costs. And perhaps more importantly, critical goods related to national security (weapons, medicines, etc.) must no longer depend on Chinese supply chains. The American public voted for change in 2008, 2016, and 2024. And after years of things seeming to stay the same... Now they're really getting it. In theory, Wall Street is being sacrificed for Main Street. But it requires nothing short of a complete restructuring of the global economy. Supply chains, factories, raw material extraction... Trump wants all of it in the USA. This isn't some little thing that markets can simply ignore. This is a MASSIVE shift in the global economy. And like any structural change, there will be big winners and big losers. Anyone who says they know exactly how this plays out is lying. There will be unforeseen political and economic consequences. But there's never been a better time to own neutral, scarce assets. Bitcoin and Gold make a lot of sense in this new world. Neither of them are subject to tariffs. And unlike equities, Bitcoin and gold aren't impacted by reduced future cashflows or supply chains disruptions. US Equities are still priced for a globalized world with minimal supply chain friction. But now these businesses need to scramble to invest in new factories and modify their supply chains. That friction still needs to be priced in. This change in policy could mark the end of blindly buying equity indexes as a store of value. Finite, neutral reserve assets now make much more sense than equities - and most investors still have very little exposure to BTC and gold. The Fourth Turning is proceeding as predicted. Remain positive, remain constructive, and focus on what you can control. With any massive change comes great opportunity. It's time to build your own Golden Age 🫡