@zerohedge If you have to ask Adam Jonas what your kids are going to do, its already too late
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CycleAmoeba
518 posts
@timsoret @AuburysNavy The plot was lost a long time ago and most didn’t even realize it
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As a European, I apologize to Americans for all the idiocy coming from our side.
You save your pilots no matter the cost.
You send humans to the moon.
You fight authoritarianism head-on.
It's truly inspiring.
We're on the wrong side of the moral equation.
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@GregMooreNH The best way to stay vigilant is to codify it into the state constitution in order to make changes extremely difficult and require enormous majorities + popular votes
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Regular reminder that staying vigilant is essential for protecting the NH Advantage.
20 years ago NH & TN were not no income tax states - now they are. Washington was one, now it's not.
MA was a flat income tax state - now it's not.
Have to stay eternally focused.
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@thejbullmarket @EnergyCynic Much higher percentage of bypass adjusted volumes given a large amount of energy has already been rerouted you dont need the SoH to reach original capacity
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The Strait is open again, 16 ships in the last 24h, 15% of its maximum volume.
Quite possible that this number swells to 30 ships next week, which would nuke Oil and send assets.
Crypto Rover@cryptorover
💥BREAKING: AROUND 15-18 SHIPS PASSED HORMUZ IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. Largest amount of traffic we've seen through the Strait of Hormuz since March 1st. Iran is charging about $2,000,000 per tanker. For 18 tankers, that comes to approximately $36,000,000. Payments are reportedly made in Chinese yuan or cryptocurrency.
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@CycleAmoeba @wabisabiforlif3 @unusual_whales But you would have to massively tax consumption to make the same revenue so it would create black markets.
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Andrew Yang: "We should try to stop taxing labor."
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@Amena__Bakr Yes we should speak nicely to countries we are at war with as to not offend sensibilities
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@wabisabiforlif3 @unusual_whales No taxing consumption gives people the choice of what to spend their money on
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Andrew Yang saying “stop taxing labor” is the same old politician fairy tale.
You don’t stop taxing labor — you just shift the pain to consumption, assets, or whatever else you can squeeze.
Labor is what normal people actually have. Everything else is a fancy way of saying “we’ll still take your money, we’ll just hide it better.”
Stop falling for rebranded theft.
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@KobeissiLetter The simple reason why anonymous intelligence reports should be taken with skepticism is that at this point the only people who are leaking are those with an agenda
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BREAKING: New US intelligence reports suggest that Iran may "increase its regional sway" as a result of the Iran War through their control of the Strait of Hormuz, per Reuters.
Details include:
1. Intelligence suggests that Iran is "unlikely" to open the Strait of Hormuz "any time soon"
2. Intelligence suggests that Iran's control over Hormuz "provides the only real leverage" it has over the US
3. As a result, Iran may actually end up gaining regional influence from the Iran War, US intelligence suggests
4. US officials note that Trump also has said that other countries "have far more at stake in preventing this outcome" than the US
The Strait of Hormuz is quickly becoming the focus of this war.
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@ZiadMDaoud @LynAldenContact The 72 dollar starting point probably had 10-20 dollars of risk premium anticipation from a possible war as well
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5 things that happened this week:
After 5 weeks of the Iran war, oil futures are closer to $100 than $200
• Pre-war: $72 per barrel
• Week 1: $93
• Week 2: $103
• Week 3: $112
• Week 4: $113
• Week 5: $109
1/5
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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@kashyap286 17% represents likes 3-4% of global capacity which can be offset pretty easily by running other facilities harder in addition to lots of new facilities coming online, but they need to be able to get their tankers through for the remainder of capacity
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According to QatarEnergy's CEO, 17% of LNG export capacity has been lost and won't be replaced for 5 years.
The market is pricing in a sharp drop in JKM over the next year, presumably because EU cargoes will get re-routed to Asia.
Which begs the question: how will the EU handle the energy crisis?
No Russian piped gas, less imported US LNG, Groningen permanently shut with wells sealed.
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@thatdayin1992 @PatrickBashamDI Rather than giving them 6 bn they should use it to pay the 1 dollars per barrel toll
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Qatar has contacted Iran asking for a safe passage through the Straight of Hormuz in exchange for unblocking $6 billion of Iranian money, according to Iranian MP, Amir Hoseesin Sabeti.
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@JoshYoung Big industrial arbitrage opening up between US and RoW due to natural gas prices. US consumers are affected by higher oil prices but this is mitigated by the strong industrial benefits to the country from a strong oil patch as well.
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Narrative Violation: US shipping activity is booming, signaling a growing economy
Neil Sethi@neilksethi
BoA: Underlying demand for freight remains solid despite fears of demand destruction post the Feb 28 start of the Iran/US war (from elevated fuel rates), and given continued supply removal. This week, our proprietary bi-weekly BofA Truckload Demand Indicator for shippers' 0- to 3-month freight demand outlook increased to 60.2, from 57.9 last survey. The Demand Indicator is up 18% yr-yr. The sustained strength in our BofA Truck Shipper Survey is a positive sign heading into the Spring shipping season.
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@rexthundercock Iran winning really hard right now by this logic
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No, bro, you don't understand.
If the US loses one single plane, they are LOSING.
If Iran is bombed 24/7 with no airspace control and their entire leadership is dead and their remaining singular spokesperson is issuing empty threats from a bunker they are WINNING.
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Couple higher conviction views of informed parties in the Gulf:
1) The US will launch a ground operation within the next week or so, as evidenced by much higher troop numbers than reported in the UAE with numbers recently accelerating.
2) Even considering the above, traffic through the Strait will continue to rise. Gradually and dependent on developments, but it will not go back to being fully closed as it was before the Larak channel opened up. Countries will continue making deals.
3) Hormuz fried chicken is 5/5 stars.
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The difference in Strait activity from when #3 first arrived / began observing the strait about 4-5 days ago to today is stark. Traffic has meaningfully picked up - there are still “dark” runs and ships transiting without AIS turned on, but there’s a lot more going along the coast of Oman. At least 15 ships have crossed, including at least 3 VLCCs.
When we arrived, virtually none were going through. Then a trickle through the Qeshm channel. It’s meaningful now, could be talking low double digit percent of pre-conflict volume. Meanwhile, expectations for a US operation involving “boots on the ground” within the next week or two are still high among locals.
When analyst #3 first got to the strait we were hopeful we’d get a clear cut answer - bullish or bearish, open or closed, war or deal. It soon became clear that was the wrong framework through which to view this trip. On the same day that we learned it was the broad expectation of nearly everyone in the region - from locals to informed parties - that US ground troops would be launching an operation (“boots on the ground!”), we also observed multiple ships beginning to cross the strait. Soon they weren’t just limited to the Qeshm channel.
It is clear to us that this isn’t as much a story in isolation as it is a story about the multipolar world and how it’s rapidly changing from what we’re used to. It’s a story about parallel warfare and diplomacy, US promises for the “Stone Age” in tandem with Allies’ seeking new venues for negotiation, and the changing global climate that necessitates this balance.
Before, it would have been unlikely to imagine a world where Japan, the EU and other US allies were negotiating with a country the US is directly in conflict in to secure passage and work on agreements while the US still maintained footing for an escalation of kinetic warfare. Now, that’s simply how the world works. These countries must deal with the issues imposed, as the US won’t be sorting it out on their behalf.
It’s undeniable the world is very different now and viewing this conflict through the lens of the past 50 years is a flawed approach. On Sunday, we will release our report that covers in depth what we’ve learned, how complex the situation is and what investment implications and nuances exist that have longer term implications than the next 100 points on SPX.
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@SpecialSitsNews Plenty of drone solutions in the United States, it just needs to mobilize it
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I don’t understand why we can’t make $20-50k drones in the USA…but they can make them in Iran and the Ukraine?
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@JoshYoung He didn’t say he was wrong anywhere in this. At this point we still aren’t sure how right or wrong you or he have been so id probably wait on the victory lap until the end of the conflict
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@SuitablePolitic 1939 France: Germany is a very bad regime-no discussion about that. I disagree with them on a lot of topics. But i dont believe we will fix the situation just by bombings or military operations.
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I wonder how Macron will feel if someone says:
"Russia is a very bad regime—no discussion about that. I disagree with them on a lot of topics.
But I don’t believe that we will fix the situation just by bombings or by military operations."
Clash Report@clashreport
French President Macron: Iran is a very bad regime — no discussion about that. I disagree with them on a lot of topics. But I don’t believe that we will fix the situation just by bombings or by military operations. Look at what happened with this type of operation in Iraq, in Afghanistan, in Libya — we never delivered. Never. Even after 20 years. So you have to respect the sovereignty of people. If people want to change a regime, they want to react, step up, they can do so.
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@MikeJake_0 @Osint613 Frankly it’s not an equal relationship. When you get a lot more than you give you should simply not bite the hand that feeds you.
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@CycleAmoeba @Osint613 So it’s good for US president to openly insult Europe?
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French President Macron:
"Our goal is not to serve the agendas of two dominant powers. We won’t rely on China’s dominance, nor be overly exposed to the unpredictability of the U.S."
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Pretty reasonable with two fixes:
1) The US is not going to finance reconstruction or pay any reparation demands. That’s a pipe dream. Ask your allies russia and china for money.
2) Iran must stop funding proxies and proxy wars and internatinoal terror or it will void any US terms
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Iranian President Pezeshkian's close ally Zarif reveals Iranian proposal to end the war:
- IRAN STEPS FOLLOWING THE END OF THE HOSTILITIES
1- Commit never to seek nuclear weapons
2- Down-blend enriched uranium to below 3.67 percent
3- Ratify the IAEA Additional Protocol for permanent monitoring
4- Ensure safe commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz, with Oman
5- Sign a permanent nonaggression pact with the United States
6- Participate in a regional security framework
7- Transfer enriched uranium and related equipment to a regional enrichment consortium
8- Remove terrorism-related designations on the United States
9- Restore diplomatic/consular channels
10- Remove travel restrictions on U.S. citizens
11- Invite oil companies, including American ones, to help facilitate exports
12- China, Russia, and possibly regional states may serve as guarantors of the agreement.
- THE US STEPS:
1-Remove unilateral U.S. sanctions on Iran
2-Allow Iran to export oil freely and repatriate the proceeds
3- Accept that Iran will retain some non-weapons-level nuclear program rather than demand zero enrichment
4- Terminate UN Security Council resolutions against Iran
5- Allow Iran to participate normally in global supply chains
6- Sign a permanent nonaggression pact with Iran
6- Finance reconstruction in Iran
7- Compensate Iranian civilians for losses
8- Participate in a regional security framework
9- Help create the regional enrichment consortium
10- Remove terrorism-related designations on Iran
11-- Restore diplomatic/consular channels with Iran
12- Remove travel restrictions on Iranian citizens
13- Cooperate on trade, energy, and technology projects
read the full article here:
foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/ho…
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