Cypherd

$WAL It's not often the markets offer you a profitable bank that just reaffirmed annual guidance 4 days ago, at 0.17x BV, .5x cash/share, & 0.8x trailing earnings. But when the panic creates that setup, it's a no-brainer. $7.46 low was a gift, 91% below the close from 7 days ago!

@JamesHMackay Great point. My original #'s are based on 50K/BPD. Good odds that production is 60K/BPD by Q4. Leaves the EBITDA ~$1.6-1.7B/yr at $75/barrel gross profit.

@CypherdC $SOC EBITDA math skips ~$26M/mo in federal royalties (16.67% on offshore leases), no? Corrected annualized EBITDA ~$1.25B not $1.62B. Still supports $4-5B EV at 3-4x.

$SOC now pumping 50k/BPD @ $105/barrel, works out to $158M/mo revs, $135M/mo EBITDA, $1.62B annualized vs $3.2B EV now. I think $4-5B EV is FMV. So 25-56% upside vs $14.2 spot. Once the PR hits regarding refinancing the $XOM loan, should quickly rerate towards $4B EV.

@Carflos223Matos $8.9B EV = $53.33/share

@Carflos223Matos Low end of potential fair market value because of the regulatory/DPA/EO risk not going away. Who knows who will be POTUS in 2028 and what their stance will be. Once there's more clarity on that front, I think 5x EBITDA is FMV, so $8.9B EV.

@insane_analyst It already went from $15 to $73 in the last 6 weeks. Now comes the -50% part.

When people tell me they are concerned $WOLF recently went bankrupt, my response is simple. Its not a bug, its a feature. Imbrace your inner primate. Market is stupid enough as is just go with it. Its either -50% or +300%. 🎲

@calvinfroedge Long oil exposure continues to work. Buy on dips and/or sell OTM put credit spreads. 1 week duration continues to price in a 10% move, that fails to happen.

Nowhere to hide except $msft of course

@Banana3Stocks This news came out yesterday and shares dropped $12.

$BA $SPY $QQQ 🍌 NEWS: 🚨 TRUMP - China agreed to buy 200 Boeing planes, with a potential commitment of 750 planes ✈️ 👀 🍌 Opinion, price spiking up over $6 on volume for this news so far. Boeing has a back log of around 7000 planes. The order number is not as important as the signal that the Chinese market is open for Boeing again

@John_Porter10 2028 $20 calls for $TMC cost $1.23/ea. Load up. Generational wealth awaits, **IF** it gets to $100 you'd turn $123 into $8000 for each call.

$TMC You see these massive buys coming in? They know TMC is worth $100+ in 3 years, do you?

@blondesnmoney Where you invest $60 in bonds and have $40 to show for it a few months later?

Another lovely day in bonds

@Omnitrader69 Two months without any updates. I expect a ~10% higher offer from the bidder to be announced in the near term for $PZZA, ~$40-42/share cash.

A few buyers back on $PZZA. Maybe that rough quarter opened them up to negotiate a bit?

@StockMarketNerd msn.com/en-us/news/tec… Motherboard side already showing severe weakness. Soaring component costs are sowing the seeds of record demand destruction within the next 18 months.

@Crussian17 Before EOY is my best guess, $80+ once the path to approval is clear.

So if fda head is fired how long before $Qure is approved? If it is does it go to 60? More?

Elon’s pivot to space data centers has the exact same smell as Full Self Driving being “next year” since 2016. The idea sounds amazing. The physics does not. On Earth, data centers dump insane amounts of heat into air and water. In orbit, there is no air to carry that heat away. You are basically stuck radiating waste heat into space, which means enormous radiator surfaces. AI data centers are not cute satellites. They are power hungry GPU furnaces. Then comes maintenance. GPUs fail. Power systems fail. Cooling systems fail. Networking fails. On Earth, technicians replace parts constantly. In orbit, every failure becomes dead mass or a space mission. Could space compute happen eventually? Sure. But selling it as an imminent pivot is classic Musk timeline theatre. Maybe in ten plus years.

@edzitron Imagine doubling revs YoY and doubling losses too. What a flywheel 😂On pace for $8B in revs and $4B in losses for the year.

hot dogshit

Based on the last week and parabolic moves of the past 48 hours ill say it now  We are now in a bubble specifically a bubble in picks and shovels akin to the bubble in fiber and chips in 2000 or residential real estate in 2007. Like those periods the bubble in the specifics also dragged all stocks up and the bubble popping drove all stocks down Unlike George Soros who says when you identify a bubble you jump in long I am not George Soros and think he identifies it way earlier than me.  So I am not going to join his protege and buy into the bubble. I speak from my experience in the 1987 LBO bubble, the Tech bubble, the housing bubble and the bond bubble.  I could be wrong but feel it necessary to share my views.  I don’t use the term lightly. I have specifically said we are not in a bubble until today. My options are to fade it or stay out of its way.  I have some small risk remaining as my puts have fallen rapidly but I have NO intent of fading this in any more size. Happy to short down 5 or even 10% on the other side of the peak.  Lots of opportunity in non equity macro today.  But over the past week this has gone into territory I have no edge in capturing.   IT will end very very badly but when and from where is unknown. But it will end with SPX below 6000 and NDX below 20,000 and Semiconductors at half of current spot. But that could be a wild and longer path than I can predict.

This is the kind of thing you see in a bubble just before the lights go dark

@kimchi_trades Only 5% of the buyback funds used so far. Can retire 20% of the float at these prices and that buyer is back tomorrow.

$DUOL the mkt simply hates this co. 2x beat and straight down for now

@elonmusk I bet you $5M that won't happen within the next 10 years.

True

@agnostoxxx Futures open til 5pm M-F. Reopen @ 6pm M-F + Sundays

Once again, the Iranians are so polite: they seized a ship AFTER the futures closed, in line with the rules of warfare during the Golden of Grift 🥹🙏 I’m sure they’ll let it go before the futures open on Monday 🤭👍 IRGC SEIZES SHIP: TASNIM