J Mackay

The most important rule everyone must learn is, 99% of people will lie to you if it is in their self-interest. Even those you love. The 1% of people who don't, who tell the hard truths, are the only people you should keep in your inner circle. Integrity is the most scarce asset.

@ahsokaskyber "Notice anything different about him? Look at his face! Look at his eyes!"

that's my emotional support scientist dawg

Absolutely incredible… The Pam Bondi top.

War timeline just about “Doubled!” 🚨🚨 RUBIO TOLD G7 FOREIGN MINISTERS TODAY THAT THE WAR WITH IRAN WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 2-4 WEEKS

@calvinfroedge It's already there. The problem is buying big things like real estate and cars requires government money. For everything else, bitcoin wins.

Here's what people are missing about crypto Capital controls are going to get so crazy it will be the only way to move money around

@Hypertonx What feed costs and final sales prices did you use? If high prices remain for 2 quarters they delever enough to not be a going concern. 3 quarters and they're out of the woods. 4 quarters and the equity rerate is likely 3x from here

@JamesHMackay IMO, I ran the numbers on profitability assuming better output pricing and was pretty unimpressed, mostly because of its size relative to the debt load

Price action of Braskem $BAK is a head scratcher. Did they hedge all production before the war for creditors? Is all upside promised to creditors? The full price increases should be realized by them despite feedstock costs, with higher volumes, and every week the straight is closed is another week they can lock in better terms into the future. Their April-June pricing should be immense, and if the straight is more or less closed another month, surely Q3 is also a windfall. The potential for deleveraging increases significantly. 2025 was terrible, but I'm very interested to hear the earnings call to hear what they have to say about Q2 and Q3 pricing.

We all need friends like Rocky

President of El Salvador Nayib Bukele releases video showing the transformation of his country. Since Bukele took office: - Homicides plunged from 2,398 in 2019 to just 114 homicides in 2024. - Murder rate is now 1.9 per 100,000 people, a historic low. - In 2022, Bukele declared a state of exception and made over 85,000 arrests. “Everything in life has a cost and the cost of being called authoritarian is too small to bother me much,” he once said.

@JoshYoung ...in some regions will be ok. Others, not so much

There were 8.2 billion barrels of oil in storage at the start of this crisis, and there's 12 million barrels per day of supply disruption via the Strait of Hormuz blockage. It's going to be ok.

🚨🇨🇦 The receipts are finally coming for the Carney government. 🏛️ U.S. investigator @nickshirleyy just confirmed Canada is his next target. While the "Adults in the Room" are vacationing in Rome, an American YouTuber is about to do the auditing they’ve been dodging for a year. The Hit List for Nick: ❌ The $26 Billion consultant bill. ❌ The 1.9 Million expiring visas with zero exit tracking. ❌ The "Indigenous" shell company scams revealed this morning. The world is watching. Let’s see how "principled" this government is under a real lens. 📉🛑 #CdnPoli #NickShirley #Canada #MarkCarney #Accountability #TaxpayerFraud

@berggrennotes I think that is priced in.

@JamesHMackay Lived in Brazil when the PT (Labor Party) was in power before Bolsonaro. Don't underestimate governmental intervention in commodity markets in Brazil with Lula. It might move on flows, but I will only be fundamentally bullish if the polls start showing a negative outlook for PT.

@fincon350122 @Nichola77431904 Oh I remember

@JamesHMackay @Nichola77431904 If you were following $btu a few years ago, they presold futures prior to coal going bonkers and capped their upside. I hope this isnt the case for $bak

@Nichola77431904 I'm not so sure. I think it would take 3-4 quarters of these type of prices and debt paydown for a real re-rate. Even then, would likely pay down only 10-15% of debt. but the market could get horny for it during that timeframe. NAV would shoot way up.

@JamesHMackay One quarter at these prices pretty much wipes out any doubts with them. Literally all it takes when you have a windfall like this

@HFI_Research @PATCHnHrd Correct

Mid-April is the breaking point. The end of April is the point of no return. Iran knows the math. Goldman, Energy Aspects, and pretty much anyone who analyzes the oil market knows this.

@JoshYoung To be honest, I have 0 concrete insights into this short term (next 2 weeks). I'm thinking of a 1-2 months out scenario where real shortages could be severe in many places. In that case China could easily restrict exports.

@JamesHMackay Do you really think that China is going to keep strangling diesel availability to Australia? China imports many commodities from Australia. This seems self-defeating.

How long would tanker routes be from the Americas to Australia/Asia? Product tankers are going to print.

@insharebazaar @barnes_law The point is that Israel wants it, obviously. Therefore the puppets must agree.

Trump: We need $2 billion a day to reopen the Strait of Hormuz US Senator: But it was already open before the war? So what was the point of whole war?

@AllMigh48938863 Please name the countries lined up to join America's cause in an invasion. Have you seen the topography of Iran? Plus they have over a million military troops in cell factions spreading a space the size of Maine to Florida to the Mississipi. Good luck with a swift invasion.

@AllMigh48938863 I don't think you understand what "religious war" means with that logical response.

Math of Hormuz: 10.98 million barrels per day are offline. The bypass pipelines - Saudi East-West and UAE Habshan-Fujairah - are both running at maximum theoretical capacity of 3.5M bpd, but only carry crude. Refined products, diesel, jet fuel, LNG and NGLs have zero bypass route. Assuming no rerouting of oil, here's who runs out first and when: 🇧🇩 Bangladesh - CRITICAL NOW 99% of LNG from Qatar and UAE. Running a structural gas shortfall of 1,300+ million cubic feet per day before the crisis even began. Universities closed. Military guarding fuel depots. 🇵🇰 Pakistan - CRITICAL NOW 99% Gulf LNG dependency. Power sector failing. Rationing already implemented. Blackouts coming. 🇻🇳🇵🇭 Vietnam and Philippines - 1 to 2 weeks Both holding fewer than 20 days of effective oil stocks. Energy emergencies formally declared. Philippines on four-day work weeks. Vietnam's jet fuel warning for April already issued. 🇮🇳 India - 2 to 3 weeks on products Crude buffer exists. Diesel and jet fuel are the immediate crisis. 53% of LNG sourced from Qatar and UAE. Government subsidies masking the pain but cannot hold. 🇯🇵🇰🇷 Japan and South Korea - 4 to 6 weeks Japan sources 95% of crude from Gulf states. Korea 70%. LNG reserves are weeks not months despite larger crude stockpile headlines. Japan already releasing emergency reserves. 🇪🇺 Europe on average - 8 to 12 weeks 12 to 14% of European LNG transits Hormuz. Not an outright physical shortage yet - but Europe is now competing with desperate Asian buyers for every Atlantic Basin cargo, driving prices violently higher regardless. This very quickly becomes who will pay the most if the straight stays closed. The treasury/fed shorts and strategic oil releases won't stop regional shortages. How is this math wrong? There will be some rerouting... but what if China doesn't export their stockpiles or products? The longer the straight is closed the crazier the market will get.

@k311126 Food prices become the next subject, yes... likely start rising worldwide in 2 months, but regional shortages in the gulf happen sooner.

@JamesHMackay need unconditional TACO ASAP, otherwise many innocent people in these countries will die from hunger