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Jason
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Takeaways:
- Christian Anderson best shooter in the class
- Super bullish on Mikel, bearish for Flemings — Houston system plays a role in the 3Pr
- Boozer/Dybantsa/Swain grouping is no fun for anyone
- Darryn Peterson far from outlier
- Your favorite big probably won’t shoot it
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Shooting Score: a simple metric with only 3 inputs (3P%, FT%, 3Pr), weighted by how correlated each are to NBA 3P%
Here are the best shooters in the 2026 NBA Draft and a graph plotting Shooting Score against self-created 3 point scoring in an attempt to capture shooting dynamism
nba draft milos@RutgersMilos
Which single college shooting statistic is MOST indicative of NBA shooting success? Going back to 2009 for over 1300 NCAA prospects who played a single game in the NBA, 3FG% seems to be one of the LEAST predictive numbers from NCAA -> NBA 😮
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@_gettingBuckets Unpopular doesn’t have to mean unfounded lol but I gotchu
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@DBCJason hence the unpopular opinion part of the quoted post
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The shooting talent is there with Graves obviously but it will probably take years before it translates in the nba.
OTOH guys like DP and Acuff who shot well last season and passed this shooting drills with flying colors will command "respect" from nba defenses from Day 1.
BucketGetter@_gettingBuckets
#unpopularopinion but "open gym" shooting is valuable in a way that it gives a good gauge of where players are in terms of their shooting proficency. Graves was 40% shooter but being one of the worst shooters in this drills tells me he is far from being a respected shooter itl
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@_gettingBuckets Can say what you want about role or stat inflation but I don’t see how combine performance plays part of that. If he shoots well in his private workouts does that negate the combine or how does that work?
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@_gettingBuckets Any proof of any of that? Can’t see any reason to care more about 20 shots in an open gym drill over 91 in live action, plus the other shooting indicators across 35 actual games.
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Pacers fans gotta be sad but don’t blame the org, plus EV trade
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@StealthSportsX Had heard about Flemings WS and height for some time so not suprised there. Wagler is super disappointing bc I’ve heard 3rd party that it was much better than that (@realLatifLove I just wanna talk…🕊️💔)
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@DBCJason What are your thoughts on Wagler and Flemings after seeing their measurements?
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CBA constraints make 1st contract production supremely important. Those that come into the league with relative size have intuitively been much better earlier.
Cam Boozer just measured at 27.6 BMI with > avg WS as the most productive player in college at 18. He’s always been # 1
Jason@DBCJason
The NBA really dropped the ball by not requiring official measurements until 2024… but just looking at the last two lotteries it’s pretty clear to me that there’s something there with BMI. Archetypal size is important.
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@desm0ndbane Ah I see my graph has already been posted in a reply. My work here is done
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an underdiscussed element of the draft is that you stop star hunting after around picks 2-5, depending on class quality. anything after that should be a search for high floor, impactful role guys that win you games on the margins & outside of the typical PRA box score averages.
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@PhilonousHylas @pinkhoopsss Yeah you’d probably need a different guard. And I’d personally use Ace Bailey to get that guard.
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@DBCJason @pinkhoopsss What's the starting 5 then? Don't you still need a ball handler who can set guys up and hit 3s? And what happens to ace bailey?
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The groundwork has been laid.
If the Jazz are bold enough to reject traditional roster construction principles and the urge to trade up for the local kid, Kessler/JJJ/Lauri/Boozer lineups could change team-building for a decade+
3 of them on the floor at all times, start all 4
Jason@DBCJason
Triple big was too powerful the league had to step in💔
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@IWannaKnowBall You desire to listen to yourself speak without any understanding as to what I was saying in the first place. It will be life’s greatest pleasure to never interact with you again and have you as the first person I’ve ever blocked.
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@DBCJason I desired an understanding. Not a way to view and believe something that lacks any reason to believe in. Its my mistake. We just view things differently sorry.
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@IWannaKnowBall I’m not talking about having lots of lineups for the pure creativity of it. I’m talking about Hardy using this specific lineup group to show that he might be willing to go even bigger if they get Boozer.
Again, I’m not talking about how well they did in the minutes, only the %
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@DBCJason 16% of some whole doesnt change the raw number value. 12÷25 is 48% of the grade, if less than a 50% is a failure, then beijg 48% doesn't change that. You also ignored the Cavs and Warriors question. The point is that some things are highlighted for narratives, not reason.
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@IWannaKnowBall To play three bigs for about 16% of their team’s minutes (actually even more than that considering this doesn’t account for Lauri lineups too). Yeah that’s outside the box compared to what most of the league is doing.
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@DBCJason Its thinking outside the box to play like 50 minutes of a big lineup? Well whatever im just being pedantic. Not sure why the Cavs dont get this credit for having the most lineups in the league, or Kerr for his numerous lineups. Something tells me that + number matters too much
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@IWannaKnowBall The underlying screenshot was posted 6 month ago because I thought it was fun that Hardy was willing to dedicate 5 quarters of their first 8 games to a unique lineup idea
It was referenced again today to show that Hardy is willing to think outside of the box and be unusual
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