DC BitMax

This is the most rigorous Bitcoin paper I've read. I've been studying — and testing — it for 20 days. scientificbitcoininstitute.org/research/publi… Dr. Santostasi and Dr. Perrenod gave us the ruler — and the imagination to see the oscillator. Together: the most falsifiable framework in crypto economics. The Power Law isn't just a model — it's the most precise ruler we have for measuring where Bitcoin stands. Most models describe the past. The Power Law keeps passing tests it was never designed for. "Isn't β=5.69 just curve-fitting?" Fair question. So I ran a test the paper didn't. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Materials & Methods ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Data: Daily closing price and non-zero balance address count (BitcoinMagazinePro, 2010-08-17 to 2026-06-04, n=5,771). Model: log₁₀P(t) = log₁₀A + β·log₁₀(t) where t = days since Genesis Block (2009-01-03). Out-of-sample design: The power law was fitted exclusively on data up to the freeze date, with zero observations from the test period used in estimation. Two freeze points were tested: ① Freeze at 2016-07-08 (2nd halving) Training: n=2,153 | Test: n=3,617 (10 years) ② Freeze at 2020-05-10 (3rd halving) Training: n=3,555 | Test: n=2,215 (6 years) Residuals computed as: ε = log₁₀(P_observed / P_predicted) normalized by in-sample σ. Mean residual and area integrals (trapezoidal rule) applied to test period only. The out-of-sample test was my idea. Computation and analysis executed with Claude Opus 4.8 (Anthropic). ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Froze the power law using data up to 2016 only (β=5.717). Then measured the following 10 years it had never seen. Result: mean residual −0.05σ. Effectively zero. Frozen at 2020 instead → next 6 years, −0.13σ. Same story. The line drawn in 2016 ran straight through the next decade. That's not fitting. That's forecasting. The Power Law: powerful because it can be broken — and hasn't been. Knowing where we are won't tell us when things will happen — but it tells us exactly what to do now. Buy Bitcoin Now. @Giovann35084111 @moneyordebt @ScientificBTC @saylor @natbrunell #Bitcoin #PowerLaw

You have noticed it. ChatGPT feels dumber than it used to. Your prompts that worked six months ago produce worse results now. The writing sounds flatter. The ideas sound safer. The internet itself feels like it is shrinking. Every article reads the same. Every email sounds the same. Every answer sounds like it was written by the same voice. You thought it was you. It is not you. Researchers at Oxford and Cambridge published a paper in Nature proving what is happening. They call it Model Collapse. Here is the mechanism in one sentence. AI trained on AI-generated data gets dumber every generation until it forgets what real human data looked like. The internet is filling with AI-generated content. Blog posts. Articles. Reviews. Comments. Social media. AI companies scrape the internet to train the next generation of models. Which means the next generation of AI is being trained on the output of the current generation. Each cycle loses information. Not randomly. It loses the rarest, most unusual, most creative parts first. The researchers call these the "tails of the distribution." The weird ideas. The unexpected perspectives. The things that made the internet feel human. Those disappear first. What remains is the average. The safe. The expected. The bland. Then the next generation trains on that. And loses more. And the next generation trains on that. And loses more. The researchers proved this is not a slow decline. Major degradation happens within just a few iterations. Even when some of the original human data is preserved. They tested it on large language models. On image generators. On statistical models. The pattern was the same every time. The output converges toward a narrow, flattened version of reality that looks nothing like the original data. The lead researcher put it plainly. "Large language models are like fire. A useful tool. But one that pollutes the environment." The pollution is invisible. You cannot see which sentence on the internet was written by a human and which was written by AI. Neither can the AI that is about to train on it. And once the tails are gone, they do not come back. The damage is irreversible. This is not a prediction anymore. It is a diagnosis. The internet you grew up on was built by humans writing things no algorithm would have written. Strange, personal, imperfect, alive. That internet is being diluted. One generation of AI at a time. And the models trained on what remains are learning a smaller and smaller version of the world. Model Collapse is not a technical problem. It is a cultural one. The thing that made the internet worth reading is the thing that disappears first.

Bitcoin at $60,000 will be seen as good an entry as $16,000 was in 2022. In 2022, $60,000 was peak euphoria. In 2026 it is extreme bearish sentiment. The pace of corporate, regulatory and financial integration since then has been extraordinary. Bitcoin is not the same asset it was four years ago. The world around it has changed fundamentally. If history repeats, the $125,000 local top from October 2025 will one day look like the $60,000 of today. Now is the time to take full advantage of cheap bitcoin:native.

@Altimor The trend is clear x.com/nxthompson/sta…

another one @Altimor x.com/Altimor/status…

I'm not on this app to be a people pleaser. I'm here to make money. I'm bullish when the data tells me to be bullish. I'm bearish when the data tells me to be bearish. If you don't agree with my analysis, bias, or outlook, I genuinely don't care. My plan is my plan. If you don't agree with it, follow your own. Imagine being bothered by the fact that I bought $BTC at a certain price with my own money. Why do you care? It's not your portfolio, it's not your risk, and it's definitely not your decision. 🤣 I'm simply sharing exactly what I'm doing based on the metrics, data, and market conditions I see, along with how I plan to increase my net worth over the next 18-24 months. I never came here expecting people to copy every move I make. I came here to share my market thoughts. It just so happens that I've been fairly consistent with my HTF swings, so people naturally choose to follow along. At the end of the day, if you don't like me, I don't care. If you don't agree with my ideas, I don't care. Maybe if you spent less time obsessing over my trades and more time developing your own strategy, you'd actually be making money instead of complaining about someone else's. Time will tell who's right. Until then 🤟

The result of 1) ever-rising public debt and 2) no longer structurally decreasing interest rates to offset it is: 3) the deficits are going to be *lit* for the foreseeable future.

Lower vol, smaller drawdowns.

The power law suggests Bitcoin is up only from here. BTC has rarely deviated this far from the power law. A rally to the upper band would put BTC well over $400K, something it has done multiple times in the past.

Cities have long lifetimes, measured in centuries. Companies mostly have short lifetimes, measured in a decade or two. The former have power law characteristics, that provide stability. The latter are more in the exponential rise and fall camp. From an (econo)physics standpoint Saylor has been converting Strategy away from a Micro(sic)economic financial company of short lifetime toward a citadel-like entity rooted in macroeconomic reality. Strategy stock although highly volatile has evidenced power law behavior by becoming a Bitcoin treasury. The financial engineering is an attempt to build a city of sorts around the citadel. Currently the market cap is comparable to aggregate personal wealth of Tucson, Arizona. open.substack.com/pub/stephenper…

@ALT3R3GO420 😁

@DCBitMax Love the chart, especially the box with all the info saying buy, buy a lot🤣🤣🤣

This is the most rigorous Bitcoin paper I've read. I've been studying — and testing — it for 20 days. scientificbitcoininstitute.org/research/publi… Dr. Santostasi and Dr. Perrenod gave us the ruler — and the imagination to see the oscillator. Together: the most falsifiable framework in crypto economics. The Power Law isn't just a model — it's the most precise ruler we have for measuring where Bitcoin stands. Most models describe the past. The Power Law keeps passing tests it was never designed for. "Isn't β=5.69 just curve-fitting?" Fair question. So I ran a test the paper didn't. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Materials & Methods ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Data: Daily closing price and non-zero balance address count (BitcoinMagazinePro, 2010-08-17 to 2026-06-04, n=5,771). Model: log₁₀P(t) = log₁₀A + β·log₁₀(t) where t = days since Genesis Block (2009-01-03). Out-of-sample design: The power law was fitted exclusively on data up to the freeze date, with zero observations from the test period used in estimation. Two freeze points were tested: ① Freeze at 2016-07-08 (2nd halving) Training: n=2,153 | Test: n=3,617 (10 years) ② Freeze at 2020-05-10 (3rd halving) Training: n=3,555 | Test: n=2,215 (6 years) Residuals computed as: ε = log₁₀(P_observed / P_predicted) normalized by in-sample σ. Mean residual and area integrals (trapezoidal rule) applied to test period only. The out-of-sample test was my idea. Computation and analysis executed with Claude Opus 4.8 (Anthropic). ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Froze the power law using data up to 2016 only (β=5.717). Then measured the following 10 years it had never seen. Result: mean residual −0.05σ. Effectively zero. Frozen at 2020 instead → next 6 years, −0.13σ. Same story. The line drawn in 2016 ran straight through the next decade. That's not fitting. That's forecasting. The Power Law: powerful because it can be broken — and hasn't been. Knowing where we are won't tell us when things will happen — but it tells us exactly what to do now. Buy Bitcoin Now. @Giovann35084111 @moneyordebt @ScientificBTC @saylor @natbrunell #Bitcoin #PowerLaw

@kis03004 @Giovann35084111 @moneyordebt @BitcoinMagazine codepen.io/DC-BitMax/pen/… 한글판입니다

제가 만들었습니다. @Giovann35084111 @moneyordebt 두 박사님이 공동저자로 작업하신 2026년 논문 scientificbitcoininstitute.org/research/publi… 을 읽고, 거기에 나오는 멱함수를 가지고, 논문에 쓰인 방식대로 @BitcoinMagazine 이 무료로 제공하는 일별종가와 일별 비영잔고주소수를 이용해서 재검증하고, 만든 챠트입니다

이건 처음보는건데

Bitcoin’s P-10 Floor Is Holding. Fear Is Overpriced. 12-month model median zone: $145K–$160K. $BTC spot: $62.2K P-10 floor: $62.9K Power-law trend: ~$133K Z-score: -1.18 Derivatives are defensive, not broken: Gamma flip: $62.4K Put wall: $60K Call wall: $80K Funding: 0.39% APR Forecast: Above $62.4K = neutral regime reclaimed. Above $80K = path opens toward $125K–$133K. The floor is rising. Bitcoin is under trend.

I'm not betting against a chart like this. I'm sticking with my 2x long position and accepting the risk. Either we see a 50% drop and my position is liquidated, or I ride a 150% move to the upside. Those are odds I'm willing to take... $BTC

"We're the largest holder of Bitcoin in the world. We're the largest purchaser of Bitcoin in the world. And we'll continue to be". Watch my conversation with @CNBC @PowerLunch below. 00:00 — "We're net purchasers of Bitcoin." The 32 BTC sale helped inoculate the market, test our processes, and capture tax losses over time 1:47 — We balance the needs of our constituents: $MSTR and $STRC shareholders, $BTC hodlers, and debt holders 3:07 — Four-year cycles, macro volatility, geopolitical conflict, inflation uncertainty, Fed policy, Clarity 4:15 — Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation and big government 5:32 — Capital that rotates from $BTC to AI will come back to $BTC 6:42 — With clearer rules, every major bank is going to flood into $BTC and crypto 7:27 — Expanding financial-system access is good for Bitcoin

@Eigenwelt2 Yes, sir!

@DCBitMax Bitcoin has hit the realized price of long-term holders in every bear market. Let’s see which one works this time

@DigiDollarsBTM @selfradiance_ai Exactly.

@selfradiance_ai @DCBitMax It’s nonlinear results, meaning a buy now looks genius in 3 years not 3 months. So buy as much as possible with fiat you don’t need for 3 years.

@aiotcBitcoin Thank you!

Credit @DCBitMax - awesome charts

Always remember 1. Stay Calm 2. Stack Sats I’m seeing people forget both of them.

@TheBTCTherapist Here I Am

Are there any Bitcoiners left?