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@DC__64

Finance • Technology • @UChicago alum

Simulation Katılım Ocak 2011
742 Takip Edilen2.2K Takipçiler
DC ◎
DC ◎@DC__64·
@pennycheck Futures up and vix down right on cue. Market still underestimating this new stagflation regime imo
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TheUndefinedMystic
TheUndefinedMystic@pennycheck·
The level of delusion needed to think Iran will read this post and be like Oh wow the US had no idea ? What a misunderstanding Sorry we attacked Is unfathomable
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Mark Minervini
Mark Minervini@markminervini·
Feedback from my posts can be interesting: Bulls are angry I’m bearish. Bears say I’m not bearish enough. My takeaway: More downside ahead — but a cyclical correction, not a secular bear market.
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DC ◎@DC__64·
@systematicls Attention to detail and ability to ensure data integrity/hygene also key. Hallucinations still an issue on the margin
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sysls
sysls@systematicls·
It is crazy to me that in this day and age you can create enterprise value just by having impeccable tastes in design and implementation and having the ability to articulate these tastes. Implementation risk is now a function of eloquence.
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DC ◎
DC ◎@DC__64·
@emollick Lines between white collar work is blurring quickly. It’s distilled down to can you manage agents to implement your ideas effectively or not
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Ethan Mollick
Ethan Mollick@emollick·
I get why AI labs are so focused on software development (it helps them get recursive improvement, and also they are coders so they think coding is the most vital thing), but there are 9.5x more managers than there are coders & efforts to build tools for them are very nascent.
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DC ◎
DC ◎@DC__64·
@anandragn looks like the ATRs (~10 vs 8) are different. But putting that aside for a sec, this screenshot calc is 136.39÷8.81=15.48. So the indicator is plainly doing % above MA ÷ ATR%. And my point is that is an overestimate
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Anand
Anand@anandragn·
$AAOI is 140% stretched from its 50MA, 284% stretched from its 200 MA. For reference, $SMCI was 135% and 237% from its 50 and 200 MA when it had that epic single day fall. $MSTR levels were far acceptable when it topped around Nov 2024. I would be really careful chasing AAOI up here at these levels. Good luck.
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DC ◎
DC ◎@DC__64·
@anandragn Quick sanity check if price is 136.1% above the 50MA, then close = 2.361 × 50MA. If ATR = 10.87% of price, then ATR = 0.1087 × 2.361 = 0.2566 × 50MA. So ATRs from the 50MA = 1.361 / 0.2566 = 5.3, not 16.
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DC ◎
DC ◎@DC__64·
~5.5 ATR is the calc if you measure it : (Price - 50MA) / ATR in dollars. The 16 ATR figure might comes from mixing bases ie dividing % above 50MA by ATR% of current price, which would then overstate it. Bc AAOI’s ATR has exploded, the raw % stretch looks insane while ATR normalized stretch is much lower
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Ariel Hernandez
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel·
- USDC transfer volume is a function of how much economic activity is being settled in USDC on-chain (payments, trading, DeFi flows, etc.), not the price of $ETH itself - You can have a large notional transfer volume in USDC even if $ETH is flat or down, as long as users are actively moving stablecoins. - This is a long way of saying. $ETH doesn't actually need to go higher for things to move on-chain
Leon Waidmann@LeonWaidmann

USDC usage on #Ethereum just hit an all-time high! 📈 Monthly transfer volume surpassed $1.7T in February 2026. That's +250% year-on-year growth! 👏 Just wait for what happens over the coming years when more and more AI agents move onchain. The numbers we're seeing right now are SMALL compared to what's coming. And somehow this is still hardly getting the attention it deserves. Start thinking exponentially.

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DC ◎
DC ◎@DC__64·
If you have the right systems/data + data hygiene/statistics collection, you can create a “meta learning layer” which can be directed at many, many tasks. feels very agi ish tbh
Andrej Karpathy@karpathy

Three days ago I left autoresearch tuning nanochat for ~2 days on depth=12 model. It found ~20 changes that improved the validation loss. I tested these changes yesterday and all of them were additive and transferred to larger (depth=24) models. Stacking up all of these changes, today I measured that the leaderboard's "Time to GPT-2" drops from 2.02 hours to 1.80 hours (~11% improvement), this will be the new leaderboard entry. So yes, these are real improvements and they make an actual difference. I am mildly surprised that my very first naive attempt already worked this well on top of what I thought was already a fairly manually well-tuned project. This is a first for me because I am very used to doing the iterative optimization of neural network training manually. You come up with ideas, you implement them, you check if they work (better validation loss), you come up with new ideas based on that, you read some papers for inspiration, etc etc. This is the bread and butter of what I do daily for 2 decades. Seeing the agent do this entire workflow end-to-end and all by itself as it worked through approx. 700 changes autonomously is wild. It really looked at the sequence of results of experiments and used that to plan the next ones. It's not novel, ground-breaking "research" (yet), but all the adjustments are "real", I didn't find them manually previously, and they stack up and actually improved nanochat. Among the bigger things e.g.: - It noticed an oversight that my parameterless QKnorm didn't have a scaler multiplier attached, so my attention was too diffuse. The agent found multipliers to sharpen it, pointing to future work. - It found that the Value Embeddings really like regularization and I wasn't applying any (oops). - It found that my banded attention was too conservative (i forgot to tune it). - It found that AdamW betas were all messed up. - It tuned the weight decay schedule. - It tuned the network initialization. This is on top of all the tuning I've already done over a good amount of time. The exact commit is here, from this "round 1" of autoresearch. I am going to kick off "round 2", and in parallel I am looking at how multiple agents can collaborate to unlock parallelism. github.com/karpathy/nanoc… All LLM frontier labs will do this. It's the final boss battle. It's a lot more complex at scale of course - you don't just have a single train. py file to tune. But doing it is "just engineering" and it's going to work. You spin up a swarm of agents, you have them collaborate to tune smaller models, you promote the most promising ideas to increasingly larger scales, and humans (optionally) contribute on the edges. And more generally, *any* metric you care about that is reasonably efficient to evaluate (or that has more efficient proxy metrics such as training a smaller network) can be autoresearched by an agent swarm. It's worth thinking about whether your problem falls into this bucket too.

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Lance Breitstein 🇺🇸🌎
Lance Breitstein 🇺🇸🌎@TheOneLanceB·
FEB 2026 @SMBCAPITAL TAKEAWAYS 1. It was universally agreed that February was a slower month versus most of 2025. Traders rightfully pulled back risk considerably. The big distinction to make is that the market has been rangebound. As a result market plays, swing momentum, and similar need to be reduced. Where traders deployed risk was in the opportunities moving idiosyncratic from the market like the crypto and SaaS melt. So so important to recognize when to pullback risk, where to pullback risk, and where to keep swinging the bat. 2. Something happened over the last month where traders are now utilizing Claude and AI at a much higher level than previously seen. It’s becoming more and more apparent that traders who don’t will face a widening gap in knowledge, speed, and productivity. 3. Now with the Iran war in full-swing, gameplanning is coming to the forefront. What could the big headlines be? What would be the first and second order impacts of those headlines? Traders that didn’t have futures access during gold and silver learned their lesson the hard way, but hopefully now are prepared for the extra market access for crude and nat gas which futures provides. 4. Despite the slowdown, traders interestingly weren’t struggling like many did in late 2025. Many have moved to shorter timeframe scalps, hitting singles, and increased selectivity. Off to NYC for the @smbcapital conference this weekend ✈️🙏
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DC ◎
DC ◎@DC__64·
@sama When memory for API?
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Sam Altman
Sam Altman@sama·
GPT-5.4 is launching, available now in the API and Codex and rolling out over the course of the day in ChatGPT. It's much better at knowledge work and web search, and it has native computer use capabilities. You can steer it mid-response, and it supports 1m tokens of context.
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DC ◎@DC__64·
@Investor_NICK_ RH losing money on their 3% cash back on everything gold card and trying to entice people off of it with the platinum card
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Investor_NICK
Investor_NICK@Investor_NICK_·
First catch of the RH Platinum Card. DoorDash orders have to be $50 minimum orders (excluding fees and taxes) to get the credits. And appears you can only apply $10 credits per order. Need to spend $100/month ($150 in Jan) minimum to maximize credits. (3) $10 discounts each January (2) $10 discounts every other month.
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Investor_NICK@Investor_NICK_

The 10% cash back on hotels (if they don’t rip you off) + $500 DoorDash + restaurant credit + $800 annual hotel ($500) and travel ($300) credits alone makes card free ($695 annual fee) if you’re a serious user. I’ll be getting one for sure.

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DC ◎
DC ◎@DC__64·
@apples_jimmy Opening salvo in coming power struggle btw government and AI companies
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Jimmy Apples 🍎/acc
Jimmy Apples 🍎/acc@apples_jimmy·
So this is crazy. This is also a nail in the coffin for the “ ai isn’t capable “ or “ LLM’s are a dead end “ skeptics Can we have a steady hand when it comes to Gov and ai.
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth@SecWar

This week, Anthropic delivered a master class in arrogance and betrayal as well as a textbook case of how not to do business with the United States Government or the Pentagon. Our position has never wavered and will never waver: the Department of War must have full, unrestricted access to Anthropic’s models for every LAWFUL purpose in defense of the Republic. Instead, @AnthropicAI and its CEO @DarioAmodei, have chosen duplicity. Cloaked in the sanctimonious rhetoric of “effective altruism,” they have attempted to strong-arm the United States military into submission - a cowardly act of corporate virtue-signaling that places Silicon Valley ideology above American lives. The Terms of Service of Anthropic’s defective altruism will never outweigh the safety, the readiness, or the lives of American troops on the battlefield. Their true objective is unmistakable: to seize veto power over the operational decisions of the United States military. That is unacceptable. As President Trump stated on Truth Social, the Commander-in-Chief and the American people alone will determine the destiny of our armed forces, not unelected tech executives. Anthropic’s stance is fundamentally incompatible with American principles. Their relationship with the United States Armed Forces and the Federal Government has therefore been permanently altered. In conjunction with the President's directive for the Federal Government to cease all use of Anthropic's technology, I am directing the Department of War to designate Anthropic a Supply-Chain Risk to National Security. Effective immediately, no contractor, supplier, or partner that does business with the United States military may conduct any commercial activity with Anthropic. Anthropic will continue to provide the Department of War its services for a period of no more than six months to allow for a seamless transition to a better and more patriotic service. America’s warfighters will never be held hostage by the ideological whims of Big Tech. This decision is final.

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DC ◎@DC__64·
@fejau_inc This was the conclusion to come to 6 weeks ago. Probably still juice left in trade tho
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fejau
fejau@fejau_inc·
The framing here just seems so clear to me. AI buildout requires a ton of real assets and commodities to complete Cyclical re acceleration is bullish commodities Everyone is overweight tech and AI is now questioning the validity of the multiples assigned to it and rotating into real things Endless geopolitical tail risks from Iran to China etc. These all point in one direction
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DC ◎@DC__64·
@Clement_Ang17 Nice dashboard! do you always trade with staggered stops?
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Clement Ang
Clement Ang@Clement_Ang17·
27 Feb 2026: End Of Month 📅 Yet another tape bomb for growth/tech stocks in general, led by an ugly post-earnings sell down in NVDA. Price action in individual equities remain interestingly bifurcated, separated between the haves and have-nots. Looking at the DXY, price has remained in a sideways 'flag' range - above the 10/20, below the 50. Precious metals in relation has shown immense resilience, with Gold continuing to digest recent gains. Similarly with Silver, as it managed to pull into the 10 and 20-EMA before finding support higher. Base metal Copper looks interesting too, with a very constructive weekly base setting up. Elsewhere in crypto land, more of the same as BTC and ETH faces the test of the looming 20-EMA. Full Dashboard Here: clementang17-alt.github.io/market-dashboa… ------------------------------------------------------ As someone with zero coding background, had a lot of fun finally bringing this dashboard to life! There's no excuse now to saying we can't do it given the tools available at our fingertips! Have a good weekend ahead! 🟡
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DC ◎@DC__64·
@pennycheck People don’t freak out until shark right next to the boat
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TheUndefinedMystic
TheUndefinedMystic@pennycheck·
I'm confused wasn't the base case always that AI is going to lead too massive layoffs ???? What's the chiddush here ?
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DC ◎@DC__64·
@WarrenPies So more disruption to white collar work incoming. Kinda /s
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Warren Pies
Warren Pies@WarrenPies·
GPU availability continues to plunge. B200 at new lows...A100, H100 approaching multi-year lows. Demand ramping…B200 rarely available in our data
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DC ◎ retweetledi
Marios Stamatoudis
Marios Stamatoudis@stamatoudism·
We’re entering an era where creating your own tool will feel as natural as launching your first social media profile. In the early 2000s, if you had a blog, you were early. By the early 2010s, if you built a social media presence, you were relevant. By the late 2010s, if you built a community, you were strategic. From 2026 onward, building AI tools and apps will be the thing Soon, everyone will make something. Everyone will be a Founder. But here’s the catch: When execution becomes cheap, cognition becomes priceless. The first wave will be noise, AI slop. Endless dashboards. Polished interfaces. Convincing visualizations. The cost of looking intelligent is approaching zero. Which means appearances will stop meaning anything at all. In the new building era, judgment will be rare. Because making something that looks smart is easy. But building something that thinks smart, that encodes real decision logic, is not. The real challenge is not building dashboards. It is engineering the bridge from Data → Understanding → Incentives → Action → Feedback → Improvement. That bridge demands extremely deep domain intuition, behavioral insight, incentive design, and second order thinking. Most tools will stop at insight. Very few will reach impact. And here is the uncomfortable truth: When everyone can build, the depth of your thinking is fully exposed. AI does not replace cognition. It magnifies it. If your thinking is average, you will scale mediocrity faster. If your thinking is clear, you will scale leverage. So yes, everyone will be a founder. But the real divide will not be builders versus non-builders. It will be People who use AI to decorate ideas vs People who use AI to operationalize intelligence. The next years will not reward the most polished apps. It will reward the clearest, most innovative minds
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