
Deebo
101 posts



Russian forces captured 68 square miles of Ukraine last month — and it cost them 4,800 vehicles and more than 36,600 dead and wounded troops. At the current rates of advance, Russia would capture the rest of Ukraine in the year 2256 at the cost of 101 million casualties. forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…






















Estonia has blocked some 1,300 Russian ex-combatants from entering the country this year. Now it’s pushing Brussels to ban Moscow’s former soldiers from entering the EU — and keep them out long after the guns fall silent. 🔗 politico.eu/article/estoni…












The situation for Russia in the Komyshuvakha direction continues to deteriorate: As a result of a nearly 3-month-long series of Ukrainian counterattacks, the Russian bridgehead over the Sukhyy River has shrunk to just three small footholds, amounting to a little over 10% of the original bridgehead size. After a brief operational pause in early April, Ukrainian forces have once again intensified their assault operations aimed at fully eliminating the Russian bridgeheads over the Sukhyy River. They have been able to make additional progress in recent weeks, despite reaching much more fortified and consolidated Russian positions compared to what they were clearing in February and March. This is because most/all of the Russian airborne elements that were supporting the initial Russian offensive here have been withdrawn to the rear in the last two weeks, likely due to high losses from the initial prolonged and costly offensive and subsequent Ukrainian counterattacks. These were elements of the Russian 108th, 247th, and 104th Air Assault Regiments. Now, only the Russian 429th, 392nd, 503rd, 1152nd, 1153rd, and 1154th Motor Rifle Regiments are left to defend the roughly 35km-long section of the frontline from Prymorske to Mali Shcherbaky. On the other hand, the Ukrainians have not withdrawn any forces from this sector, with elements of the 128th Heavy Mechanized Brigade, the 23rd Public Protection Brigade, the Artan Special Purpose Unit, the Kraken Regiment, elements of 253rd Assault Regiment "Arey" of Heavy Mechanized Brigade, the International legion of the GUR, and the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, as well as the 260th and 241st Territorial Defence Brigades continuing to operate in this sector. With these recent Russian withdrawals and the clear logistical crisis for Russian defenders holding the three bridgeheads north of the Sukhyy River, Ukrainian forces are now working to fully eliminate these footholds and re-establish their former strong defensive line along the northern bank of the Sukhyy River. Following a series of unsuccessful Russian counterattacks in Prymorske in late March and early April, Ukrainian forces have managed to clear the grey-zone and dislodge the Russians from their positions south of the village centre, forcing the majority of the Russian garrison holding the village to withdraw to the southernmost part of the village where they are now holding out in several strongpoints. The areas north of this are in the grey-zone, with the Ukrainians attempting to infiltrate south through it. Additionally, Ukrainian forces have managed to clear a large section of the highway and adjacent areas northwest of Stepnohirsk, before pushing further south and gaining a foothold in the area of the dachas - just north of the highway junction. This has cut Russia's western foothold over the Sukhyy River in two, with a large grey-zone now existing in the dachas of Prymorske. Furthermore, the Ukrainians repelled Russian counterattacks in early April towards the high-rise block in the centre of Stepnohirsk, and are now focusing on fully clearing the streets just north of the Sukhyy River, including the Russian strongpoints in the southwestern part of the town. Some small groups of Ukrainian infantry have even managed to cross the river, entering Ahrana Street, however these actions are likely of a raiding nature, rather than aimed at establishing a foothold. Meanwhile, in the eastern part of this sector, Ukrainian forces are working on clearing the fields southwest of Novoyakovlivka and west of Pavlivka from Russian DRGs and left-over infiltrators, before recapturing the Russian-held salient north of the Sukhyy River. Attempts at recapturing the solar farm southwest of Lukyanivske are also underway, with this position protecting the left flank of this Russian salient. Russian logistics into the salient currently run through a 2km-wide bottleneck that leads over the Sukhyy River and through open areas, resulting in Russian infantry conducting supply missions and rotations being extremely vulnerable to Ukrainian FPV drone and artillery strikes. Because of this precarious situation, it is expected that a final withdrawal from this salient will take place some time in the near future. It's also important to mention the Ukrainian control over the fields south of the Sukhyy River, along the northern bank of the neighbouring Norivska River. If the Russians choose to withdraw from their salient, these positions could post a threat to undermine a Russian defence south of the Sukhyy River. Because of this, there is a threat (albeit, not very likely) of the Ukrainians trying to advance all the way to Kamyanske from the east and north, if the remaining Russian footholds north of the Sukhyy River fall.





