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Acom
2.1K posts
@AMK_Mapping_ @clement_molin When do you see Ukraine losing its ability to wage defensive warfare ?
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I've been seeing a lot of Pro-Russians claim that my reporting is significantly skewed in favour of Ukraine recently, and that I'm "over-hyping" Ukrainian successes, so I decided to tally up my posts I made over the last week based on if they were covering Ukrainian successes or Russian successes.
Out of 79 counted posts, 44 were covering Russian successes and 35 were covering Ukrainian successes. This ratio largely reflects what each side is achieving. I have the same threshold for what events I consider "worthy" of posting for both Russia and Ukraine, and these numbers simply reflect what events reached that.
Pro-Russians complaining about my supposedly overreporting Ukrainian successes are doing the exact same thing Pro-Ukrainians and nafoids have been accusing me of for the last two years, except the other way around.
Just because you want something to be true, it doesn't make it so. Stop basing you opinions of reality on what you personally want to happen.
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@DK6900000 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA If by secure, you mean sent them in the first wave of men at the frontline to die in 2022, well I don't have the same definition of "secure". Strategic land becoming ruin and still beeing able to be targeted are worth nothing. Russia cannot keep going like this for 6-8 more years
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@Acommander001 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA Failed? They have secured ethnic Russians in Donbass from extreame instability. the most strategic land in east Europe, trillions in rare earths. And Deleted Ukraines self reliance.
Russsia can easily keep going for 6-8 more years. take everything east of the Dnipre.
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🇺🇦 Rep. Smith: A year ago, you said that Ukraine had no cards to play. Clearly, that was wrong. What did you miss?
🇺🇸 Hegseth: We didn’t miss. Joe Biden, with no accountability, gave hundreds of billions of dollars of our weapons to Ukraine.
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@DK6900000 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA If it is a war of attrition and not a war of advances, how many more years do you need to admit it has failed? Only the EU and a few western countries is backing Ukraine, with their old stock and money, that's hardy the entire west. RU received help as well (NK for example)
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@Acommander001 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA Well considering it’s a war of attrition not advances and it was a stalemate for a long time and the fact Ukriane has the entire west backing it and heavily fortified defenses…it is kinda impressive.
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@DK6900000 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA If by "relatively impressive advances" you mean "moving slower than a snail", then I agree, but let’s drop the impressive word
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@Acommander001 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA Well this month last year was very quiet for Russia before some relatively impressive advances. So let’s wait a bit here. It seems like they are starting recently with the mid season ending.
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@DK6900000 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA Neither side can conduct a strategic offensive at this stage of the war
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@Acommander001 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA They push back but they can’t conduct a strategic offensive. And that push back was against recently captured areas not that impressive really.
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@DK6900000 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA It "exhausts" Ukraine but they are still able to push Russia back 4 years after the start of its invasion, pretty impressive I would say, against the second best military in the world. For Kupiansk, I still remember Putin saying it is in full Russian control, 3 or 4 months ago ?
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@Acommander001 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA They can post advances for sure, they have pushing hard, but it only exhausts Ukraine and is reversed over time. See Kupiansk.
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@DK6900000 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA Being able to burn to the ground all Russian energy infrastructure (i.e. Tuapse) seems like a pretty good card to me
And about land back :
x.com/AMK_Mapping_/s…
AMK Mapping 🇳🇿@AMK_Mapping_
The situation for Russia in the Komyshuvakha direction continues to deteriorate: As a result of a nearly 3-month-long series of Ukrainian counterattacks, the Russian bridgehead over the Sukhyy River has shrunk to just three small footholds, amounting to a little over 10% of the
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@Maks_NAFO_FELLA What cards do they have? There’s almost no chance to outlast Russia. They have proven they can’t take land back (Robotyne and Sumy disasters). Russia just has to lean and wait now. there’s a reason the west keeps talking about peace. Russia has only had one partial mobilization..
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@1artdealer1 @MarioNawfal And which country is responsible for this energy crisis?
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@MarioNawfal So Ukraine is screwing the whole world during an energy crisis? Go it.
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🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine's drones have reportedly taken out half of Russia's top 10 oil refineries, knocking roughly 1.45 million barrels per day offline.
These 5 refineries handle over half of Russia's total refining capacity, and repairs are expected to take weeks.
Source: @businessbasiics
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@Acommander001 @PhillipsPOBrien See, You don’t know what you are talking about…
EU is buying stolen gas from Russia… Russia is getting gas from Crimea, Which is occupied Ukranian territory, And sells it to Europe..
Just sit this one out retard.
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@Jimmydeuce1234 @xProudZionist @PhillipsPOBrien As an American, you should be delighted that you are now the EU’s leading supplier of LNG, rather than complaining that a few % still comes from RU. Now that you have declared war on Iran and are driving up energy prices, this is not going to help us sever our last ties
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@Acommander001 @xProudZionist @PhillipsPOBrien What’s the difference, the EU Countries continue to buy LNG from Russia. France buys the most and they are always front and center professing their support for Ukraine while they fund Russias War Machine.
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@xProudZionist @PhillipsPOBrien If the EU were to buy Ukrainian oil and gas that had been stolen and resold by Russia, it would effectively amount to siding with Putin. Fortunately, only Israel seems to approve of this sort of practice
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@PhillipsPOBrien EU also buys that Grain, And not only the EU.
EU also buys oil and gas, It means EU is siding with Putin’s dictatorial government too right?
Are you going to make a post about that too or not?
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@DelwinStrategy Militarisation of russia's merchant fleet will cost a lot to Russia, some will say way more than Ukrainian protecting their infantery with IMV and MRAP
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[FOLLOW-UP - BALTIC OIL EXPORT] According to this interesting article on Substack from Northern Defense Affairs “The Militarisation of Russia’s Merchant Fleet”, the Russian response to its shadow fleet being targeted by sanctions enforcement is escalation and overt protection of vessels operated under the Russian flag.
Fewer vessels, used more intensively, but with either naval escorts or security teams on board. I assume this is supplemented by additional investments in Pacific lifting capabilities as well as a rumoured oil pipeline addition to the “Power of Siberia 2” project.
This is a direct challenge and significant move, as stopping Russian sovereign tankers (and only Russian ones), with force especially, in the Danish straits could be considered an act of war according to the law of the sea, and fit the scenarios I outlined in my recently published analysis.
We are witnessing additional warnings. Recent threats against underwater communication infrastructure and drone approaches were signals of what could unfold against the Baltic trade in case of more direct intervention against oil exports.
Read the article on fleet militarisation here: open.substack.com/pub/mellenion/…
Delwin | Military Theorist@DelwinStrategy
[ANALYSIS] Why Europe has not blockaded Russia’s Baltic oil exports? A blockade of Russia’s Baltic ports would be easy to sketch on a map and far harder to sustain in practice. The Baltic and adjoining North Sea approaches are increasingly mutual-denial spaces. Read it on
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@kadmitriev Are you planning to withdraw Russian troops from the occupied Ukrainian territories and pay compensation for war damages within two months? If not, I see no reason why the EU should source their energy from RU, when your refineries and storage facilities are on fire every day
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See you in 2 months as you come to Russia to beg for energy. Please save enough jet fuel for the flight.
Donald Tusk@donaldtusk
European Council meeting. For the first time in years there are no Russians in the room. Huge relief.
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@LamriAbdelazize @Euro2030Group @MedvedevRussiaE Algeria isn't at war, so you don't really need any help, but be careful who you choose as friends. Bachar al-Assad, Maduro and Ali Khamenei thought Russia was their friend. However, I have no problem with China, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, they don't try to kill their neighbor
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@Acommander001 @Euro2030Group @MedvedevRussiaE I don't want to help you; we have friends who can help us.
Countries like Russia, China, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have helped us before, and we respect them.
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Russian Defense Ministry’s statement must be taken literally: the list of European facilities which make drones & other equipment is a list of potential targets for the Russian armed forces. When strikes become a reality depends on what comes next. Sleep well, European partners!
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@LamriAbdelazize @Euro2030Group @MedvedevRussiaE We’re simply defending a country that’s under invasion—don’t you think that’s the right thing to do? Wouldn’t you want help if you were being invaded? Peace can be acheive as soon as Russia, the aggressor, puts an end to this nonsense. We don't really care about Russia itself
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@Acommander001 @Euro2030Group @MedvedevRussiaE If you don't talk about peace, then you should atone for the blood of the innocent people who were killed for amusement.
+ Are you really trying to pick a fight with Russia? Do you want to wipe them off the map?
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@LamriAbdelazize @Euro2030Group @MedvedevRussiaE Fortunately, attitudes and values in Western democracies have evolved since that time; we do not forget the crimes committed by our ancestors, nor do we forgive the crimes committed today by other countries on our continent, that have not evolved since
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@Euro2030Group @MedvedevRussiaE Look who's speaking, he's Belgian. Have you forgotten the crimes you committed in Africa?
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@DelwinStrategy @Majmunspiuni3 Even if the Russian didn't have the habit to put as much infantery as possible in their civilian vehicles, you'll need 3 drones for 6 kills in option 2, might not be enough for option 1
Practical case below, imagine the same impact on a car
x.com/kvistp/status/…
Kvist@kvistp
🇺🇦 Iveco LMV armored vehicle taking a russian FPV like a champ, saving the crew.
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6 infantry men. Options 1: In one IMV or option 2: in 3 cars by twos.
You will take less casualties in the second option, or it will require to expend more drones for the same result.
Overall, the cost of option 2 is about 10x lower.
High intensity warfare is a matter of economics and logistics. Ukraine could afford option 1 while funding lasted, but this is becoming increasingly difficult.
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On the contrary, this is a significant issue and to understand this we have to go into the details.
- Ukraine loses more of every type of asset, that includes heavy armor (and artillery). Which are critical offensive operations. This fleet is now at 30% of total received capacity.
- IMV fleet is not infinite, I calculated it standing at 5428 vehicles remaining in March 2026. They represent 50% of losses when it was 25% less than a year ago, demonstrating the degradation of the heavy armor fleet, as well as a significant increase of IMV losses (doubled, and higher than replenishment). This shows Russian FPV drone capabilities have gradually increased to strike rotations behind the first lines.
- Using IMV for rotation and transport vs civilian vehicles incurs way higher operational costs (higher gas consumption, repairs etc), as well as vehicle unit cost (more and more local production among losses). In the current budgetary situation, this is less than ideal and we may see changes later in the year.
- IMV are also lost in assault operations.
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@gato_do_mato @Majmunspiuni3 @DelwinStrategy Math says it's minimum one per strike, sometime more (I saw pickup-style vehicles, with Russians piled on the truck bed, get hit)
It's different with an IMV: if the first strike is enough to stop it, more drones will be needed to chase the occupants
You failed the test, too
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@Acommander001 @Majmunspiuni3 @DelwinStrategy side that use IMV
it's either some FPVs against 1 bike, or some FPVs against 1 IMV. Do your math
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@Majmunspiuni3 @DelwinStrategy We’re not talking about bombs here; the Russians barely use them against moving targets. You’ve failed the test.
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@Acommander001 @DelwinStrategy One side > are you affected by Down syndrome?
One side > is using upwards 75K guided bombs per year.
The other >2752 last year.
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@DelwinStrategy @Majmunspiuni3 At the pace the frontline is moving (let’s not forget, slower than a snail), I think the protagonists have enough time to sort out the logistics, and ultimately, the drones have the same range on both sides of the front
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Yes, IMV barely offers more survivability, and there is another point:
Russian forces are advancing meaning their second lines logistics are more difficult to target by drones. It is therefore less important to use armored trucks.
Unfortunately Ukrainian forces are under pressure meaning their rotations are often in range and targeted.
This is why Ukrainian drone teams target mainly infantry when Russian ones focus on the assets critical to operations.
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