Daniel
840 posts


Trump Reportedly Told Aides To End War Without Reopening Hormuz, Iran Strikes Fully-Laden Kuwaiti Oil Tanker zerohedge.com/geopolitical/t…
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My guy at GS:
"Powell just told everyone he's stuck... the job market is softening but inflation won't quit, so the Fed can't cut rates even if they want to.
The real concern tho is oil... one shock they can ignore, but back-to-back supply shocks start changing how people THINK about inflation, and that's when it gets dangerous.
He also said they're watching the private credit space "very carefully" for anything that could bleed into the banking system... but claims they don't see it yet.
Translation: rates aren't moving until at least September, and even then you're probably only getting two small cuts to bring rates down to around 3.25%.
The Fed is trapped between a slowing economy and sticky prices, and Powell basically admitted he's just gonna sit there and hope it works out.
That's not a plan... that's a prayer."
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@moninvestor They just secured over $100B in their latest fundraising round, and Altman is actively/desperately seeking energy solutions. I think it’s realistic.
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The Microsoft deal was a genuinely significant moment for $IREN because it proved to the entire market that the company can land a hyperscaler at scale and actually deliver.
Retail has largely moved on because the deal is done and attention has shifted to what comes next. But any company now sitting across the table from IREN is watching closely to see whether they deliver on time and on budget. That execution piece matters for everything that follows.
Investors expect the next deal to be better. The cost of compute continues to rise with each new generation of hardware, and demand keeps climbing with no sign of slowing.
Whether the next partner is OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google, nobody knows. Everyone has their own view. What is clear is that the longer IREN waits, the more valuable that next contract becomes, and they understand that.
Then you have Sweetwater 1, a 1.4 GW site coming online next month, making it one of the largest compute sites in the world to be energized.
On the ATM, the biggest mistake people make is assuming any dilution is automatically bad. That is not how this works. IREN is not drawing down $6B right now, and they are not doing this because something is broken. They are raising capital to build at scale. If that capital generates multiples in enterprise value, it is accretive and the right decision. The idea that this ATM is a red flag is misleading and worth pushing back on.
The macro is where I have real concern. What is happening in Iran, Yemen, and around the Strait of Hormuz has the potential to push oil prices higher, and that matters because oil feeds into everything.
When oil rises, manufacturing costs increase, supply chains become more expensive, inflation moves higher, and interest rates may follow.
The issue is that 2026 was expected to be a year of lower rates. That is what the market has been pricing. If instead rates move higher, that creates a problem. You already have businesses investing heavily in AI, often using debt to fund it, while unemployment begins to rise as AI replaces jobs.
If you combine record investment spending, rising unemployment, and the possibility of higher rates, the setup for a significant market event becomes more realistic than many want to admit.
OpenAI is another risk that is not discussed enough. The company sits at the center of the AI ecosystem, and any serious disruption would have broad second-order effects. My view is that Anthropic is in a stronger position, and that gap is likely to widen.
Long term, I have no concern about IREN. The thesis remains intact. Short to medium term, the macro is a real risk. Ideally, conditions settle before any major announcement, so when the next deal comes, it lands into a market that can properly reward it.
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Imagine the head of the military in the most powerful nation in the world not knowing what a kilometer is...
He is reading off a fact sheet
x.com/SpecialSitsNew…
Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)@SpecialSitsNews
Hegseth doesn’t even know what a kilometer is… Hegseth on Iran: “For years, they told the world their missiles could only range two kilometers.”
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@idearikas IREN has also secured a $10B contract with Microsoft. and is guiding $3.7B ARR while owning all the infrastructure. Mara is a toaster oven.
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Since last August, $IREN has blown $138M+ on SG&A and marketing stunts.
For nearly the exact same amount of money ($168M), $MARA secured a 64% stake in Exaion, adding real European AI/HPC infrastructure.
Whilst $IREN wraps trams in Sydney, $MARA secures real assets.
McFly@ilzmcfly
$IREN Town Hall Light Rail Stop in Sydney, Australia
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What a week at @NVIDIAGTC
Three themes:
1. Time-to-compute
2. Scale
3. Execution
Not just how much compute, but how fast you can deliver it.
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@disruptorinvest It’s been a crazy ride. Eventually, you get numb to it because of the confidence we have in their ability to execute.
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If you've held $IREN stock for the past 3 years, you've seen the stock price go from ~$3.20 to $41.64.
That's a 13x of your investment in 3 years.
Sounds amazing right? Well the ride hasn't always been if you ask any shareholder.
During this ascent, shareholders have had to hold through the following separate drawdowns from ATH.
-64%
-63%
-60%
-57%
-55%
Imagine having your holdings cut in half from ATH five times... Would you have held the volatility?
Even though you'd currently be sitting on a 13x, right now you'd be down roughly 50% from the ATH.
Credit is due to any shareholders who have held the stock in size through this volatility. Know what you own.

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@StealthQE4 Troops are priced in. Continued destruction of each other’s oil infrastructure is not priced in.
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🚨 $IREN: @theallinpod to interview @danroberts0101
This is a big deal. 🤯
Getting interviewed on the All-In Podcast is considered a significant deal in terms of reach, influence, and exposure to elite Silicon Valley and Washington circles.
IREN@IREN_Ltd
Attending @NVIDIAGTC? Don't miss @theallinpod @Jason's interview with $IREN Co-Founder and Co-CEO @danroberts0101. 🗓️When: Today, 1:15pm PDT 📍Where: Expo Hall (between the @nvidia Booth and Automotive area)
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Attending @NVIDIAGTC?
Don't miss @theallinpod @Jason's interview with $IREN Co-Founder and Co-CEO @danroberts0101.
🗓️When: Today, 1:15pm PDT
📍Where: Expo Hall (between the @nvidia Booth and Automotive area)

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@JustCohl @BitcoinAIGuy Come on, man. It’s already so well documented that IREN was built for computing, and Bitcoin mining was simply a way to bootstrap the business and build the infrastructure. AI has always been the endgame since day 1.
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@BitcoinAIGuy Iren had to pivot to AI. Nebius was built for AI. They never had to pivot. They bring the experience from Yandex and the full AI stack. Token Factory
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