

Dr. Douglas Chin
10.1K posts

@DTazeh
Surgeon | 🇦🇫#AfghanUndergroundHealth & Human Rights | Intersection of Global Health & Human Rights | Director, @harvard | @MIT @hstbme | 🇺🇳 UNHCR Advisor





Brigadier General Ali Khosravi, a member of the Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has been killed.






ARE ANALYSTS MISSING THE MOST DANGEROUS VARIABLE IN THIS WAR? 🚨 1. An overwhelming amount of analysis right now says the same thing: Iran has the upper hand. It controls the narrative. It holds the cards. Hormuz has become a bargaining chip that has clearly rattled Washington. And Donald Trump, many say, now looks trapped. 2. But there is a growing blind spot in that analysis. It risks forgetting the most basic fact of this conflict: the United States is still the most powerful military machine on the planet. By a margin that is not marginal. 3. This is not a middling power trying to negotiate its way out of a corner. This is a country that can decide to escalate in ways nobody else can match. 4. The second blind spot is the man in the Oval Office. Trump has shown repeatedly that he is unusually resistant to being shaped by events. He reacts to pressure by doubling down, not stepping back. 5. Third, he is a second term president. That matters enormously. There is no electoral future to protect (Midterms aside). No campaign calculus to temper risk. The incentives change completely when the next election does not exist. 6. Fourth, Trump is deeply allergic to anything that looks remotely like a concession or a climbdown. Even when the narrative is fluid and post truth, the optics of retreat are something he instinctively rejects. 7. Fifth, the longer the perception builds that Iran has outplayed Washington, the greater the pressure on Trump to do something bold. Something sudden. Something few in the analyst class are currently modelling. 8. Sixth, there is one objective that Washington almost certainly cannot walk away from now: Iran’s enriched uranium. Exiting this war without seizing or neutralising that stockpile would be seen in Trump’s mind as failure. 9. Seventh, Trump clearly believes he is doing the world a favour. In his telling this is not just America’s fight. It is a service to the Gulf, to Israel, to the broader order that fears a nuclear Iran. 10. Eighth, he has escalation heft where it matters. Israel is already in the fight. Saudi Arabia and key Gulf states may not be on the front line but their political and logistical weight sits firmly on one side of this equation. 11. None of this erases the reality that Iran’s Hormuz leverage has been effective. It has changed the tone of the war and forced hesitation in Washington. 12.But the emerging consensus that Tehran now holds all the cards may itself be the next analytical trap. 13.Because if the president leading the most powerful military on earth believes he cannot exit without a decisive move, the story of this war may still have a very sharp turn left.














برایان مست، رئیس کمیته روابط خارجی کانگرس امریکا گفته است که بیش از چهار سال از خروج بایدن از افغانستان میگذرد و هر روز، رنج زنان و دختران افغانستان بیشتر میشود. او میگوید لایحه جدید برای پاسخگو کردن طالبان در برابر «ظلم وحشیانه» علیه زنان است و این رفتارها را «کاملاً گرهخورده به دین» میداند.

The Islamic regime has confirmed the death of 18 year old Melika Azizi was carried earlier today. Melika told the judge: "You let so many young people bleed. How can I remain silent? I don't care just kill me" She was a brave young lady! Now gone. A crime to humanity.