DUNK

Prediction markets Overview 1. TLDR • Allows users to trade “shares” on future events (sports, politics, culture, crypto) that pay $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn’t • In theory, markets aggregate dispersed information into better forecasts; in practice the UX and distribution are shifting fast toward social, feed-native experiences • Daily volumes are around ~$30M each on Polymarket ($1b valuation) and Kalshi (~$2B valuation) and a friendlier U.S. regulatory stance on this market • Adheres to the "hypergamble/hyperfinancialisation" thesis and a growing social element --> every post has an attached market and “bets become statements” (identity + reputation), lowering intent/friction and broadening participation - - - - - 2. Project landscape a) Markets • @Polymarket: largest crypto-native venue on @Polygon whose markets resolve through UMA’s optimistic oracle • @Kalshi: A CFTC-regulated, U.S.-accessible exchange --> contracts listed on a Designated Contract Market with event specifications • @DriftProtocol B.E.T: DeFi native market on @solana b) Terminals & bots building on top • @fliprbot: social trading bot + terminal that started on X, goal to become a cross-venue aggregator • @polycule_bot: @telegram-native bot for Polymarket with copy-trading • @betmoardotfun: a Polymarket web terminal with breaking-news feeds, on-page trading, wallet/profiles analytics - - - - - 3. The risks (and why disputes happen) • Unclear market rules: Recent example was the $14M “Zelenskyy suit” where the market showed how even widely reported “facts” (most outlets said he wore a suit) can still be argued both ways --> what is perceived fairness? • Oracle design & governance trade-offs: On Polymarket, many markets ultimately rely on UMA token-holder votes. In the Venezuela election market, critics argue UMA voters overrode the event’s posted resolution rules (primary source of truth was the official results) and paid out based on a media-consensus standard instead --> i.e. conflicts if voters can also be traders • Manipulation risk: can shift from “truth-seeking” to “tautology-seeking” --> incentives to push narratives rather than measure them They were initially quite niche, but quickly moving into mainstream + socially distributed products. The upside is faster, crowd-priced info; but the big downside is that wording, oracles, and incentives still has to be solved. - - - - - *Notable project mentions a) Prediction markets • @Truemarketsorg • @HedgehogMarket • @noise_xyz • @inertia_social • @trylimitless • @swaye_co • @metaculus • @narrativexyz • @trepa_io • @xomarket • @ManifoldMarkets • @BRKTgg • @MyriadMarkets • @PredictBase b) Sports focused • @azuroprotocol • @Overtime_io • @SX_Bet