DocMelbourne

@MarketsnCharts @_colourmeamused Why would people want to leave for a country with a worse currency?

@_colourmeamused At what point does everyone leave for NZ?

I am not sure why we are not talking about this, it hasn’t been this low since the Global Financial Crisis

@maxtempers I am supporting Burnham and put £200 on Reform to win. Burnham is maybe a mild favourite but 11/5 equivalent on Betfair now seems very generous. It’ll come to 3pts either way

I’ve decided that Burnham will trounce Reform and become our next PM. It’s over. The only possible silver lining is that he’ll probably be ‘coronated’ after a decisive win and won’t have to subject himself further to the demands of the Labour membership.

@yupitchris @mumbletwits Definitely not just LNP/ONP issue but these numbers need to be put into context. ALP are not exactly wildly popular and are going for a third term. In other conditions these seats taken by ONP would be taken by the LNP. ALP are starting from a much higher watermark.

@mumbletwits Which is why I find it crazy that many on the left are just seeing this as a LNP vs ON issue.

One Redbridge/Accent's numbers these are who and how many the One Nation gains would come from.

@disco___cat Nah it’s the best of both worlds. It ensures a more stable government than PR but also means that we get a government that a critical mass of the electorate can support reasonably. Paired with compulsory voting and it’s good mix - 3 yearly elections are the biggest issue IMO

Pref voting is a good system where the 2 main parties take around 80% of the primary vote each - in this environment however, nope. Winning majority govt on a primary of 27% is absurd.

@Onyxdime @JenniferJS_ No, the Mandelson appointment was a disgrace. Appointing someone who was known to have those links was inexcusable. And the polls do matter when they’re this bad. It is hard for them to be worse. I’m not sure you grasp just how far past the point of no return Starmer is.

I'm not worried about polls 3 years out from the next general election. And I don't think any replacement would necessarily poll any better once in office. I don't think Mandleson should have been appointed; but I also think the Mandleson thing is a being overplayed by opportunists who want Starmer gone. Let the police and prosecution service handle Mandleson for any crime(s) he committed.

Message to Makerfield voters

@_colourmeamused I stayed there, it was great! It cost a fair bit more than $127 when I was there during Covid. Think it was about $240-ish but they upgraded me to a junior suite

Should I stay here it’s only AU$127/night 👀 Dunedin doesn’t have that many hotels so…

@Onyxdime @JenniferJS_ He’s on course to get Labour wiped out at the next election and appointed the best friend of the worlds most notorious sex offender to the highest diplomatic post going. If it was just genuinely boring competence I would be all for it.

@D__Melb @JenniferJS_ Boring pragmatists > Exciting populists.

@meganekenyon @NewStatesman Anyone voting Green in this election is very much anti Labour anyway and wouldn’t vote Labour even without a Greens candidate standing. On this particular issue (though maybe not others) they’re pretty well informed about what this by-election is about.

I wrote about whether the Greens should or shouldn’t stand in Makerfield in Friday’s @NewStatesman morning call. Imo, it won’t make much difference to Andy Burnham’s chances if they do stand (and as it’s Monday and they don’t even have a candidate yet, there’s not masses of momentum behind the Greens in this by-election rn). Has also been undersold that the Greens standing could actually help Labour by mopping up anti-establishment votes from Reform. Read here: newstatesman.com/politics/2026/…

@_colourmeamused Probably not most but this one. It’s a great deal (~2 pt/AUD and better ways of spending points than my Amex Platinum) but it did involve me having to deposit a lot of lakhs into an HSBC acct. Technically the money can be withdrawn after approval though hsbc.co.in/credit-cards/p…

@D__Melb Wait I can get Indian credit cards? Should I?

@JohnRentoul If Burnham wins the by-election then he takes pretty much all of Miliband and Rayner's backers.

Find Out Now poll of 306 Labour members, 15-16 May

@FluxNatural @Iran_naameh @SGhasseminejad @hesamorouji No, you’re still extremely fucking stupid. The deal won’t get much better for your neuroses. At most the nuclear can will get kicked down the road. The Iranian’s current chokehold over the global economy is not something that can be broken easily.

@D__Melb @Iran_naameh @SGhasseminejad @hesamorouji Lol now u look dumb Trump backing out of the bad deal. I was right to lash out. It’s a garbage deal.

According to Iranian and Arab sources Trump agreed to -compensate Tehran by releasing blocked funds (at least $6 billion) -lift sanctions -remove American forces from around Iran (Iranian sources more specifically mention the naval assets in the region) -lift the blockade -ceasefire in all fronts including in Lebanon (basically allowing Tehran to rearm its proxy network and help Hizballah reasserts its control in Lebanon) In exchange for -gradual reopening of Strait of Hormuz with the transit remaining under Tehran’s management and control -negotiations over other issues with no hard deadline (the 30-day negotiation window can be extended) Washington has not denied any of these claims. This is a total surrender, pretty symbolic if it is announced on Memorial Day.

@SusieNoonan2 @disco___cat @SenatorCash I’m not even a socialist. And I don’t see what part of what I said was an insult - indeed the only one applying labels here is you. You were the one who brought up sides of politics without understanding how contradictory this was

@D__Melb @disco___cat @SenatorCash And this is why it's difficult to have nuanced conversations with socialists. You guys tend to play the man, not the ball. How about a conversation on which 'handouts' are good, and which ones are terrible??? Or is it just insults for you lot?

Labor is removing the higher private health insurance rebate for Australians over 65. Modelling from Private Healthcare Australia shows some retirees could face premium increases three times higher than younger members. A couple over 70 with gold hospital cover could be hit with an extra $1,614 a year. Over 900,000 of those affected earn less than $55,000. These are people who did the right thing and kept private cover to take pressure off the public system. Now they're being punished for it. Because when Labor runs out of money, they come after yours.

@disco___cat @SusieNoonan2 @SenatorCash You could print out this exchange and put it in the Louvre

@SusieNoonan2 @D__Melb @SenatorCash that's literally a handout

@SusieNoonan2 @disco___cat @SenatorCash Yes, it is literally a handout. It is a government transfer, how is it different to anything else you’d describe as a handout?

@D__Melb @disco___cat @SenatorCash Handouts? Vs supporting pensioners to have private health insurance?? O-kay there

@SusieNoonan2 @disco___cat @SenatorCash Aren’t people who vote the way you do supposed to be against government handouts?

@disco___cat @SenatorCash OK, I can see why you vote the way you do, and of course, why I vote the way I do...

@davebeerflog @_colourmeamused This would be unacceptable behaviour unless it’s a cricket game at the SCG

@D__Melb @_colourmeamused Just needs some cunt to yell at him from the stands

retire man

@WadeS14504 @RadishHarmers Also why do you look like an even more simple version of Simple Jack in your photo

@WadeS14504 @RadishHarmers How does hating Indians prevent you from buying ingredients from the supermarket and cooking them yourself? Do you think Indians get a profit share from your stovetop or something? I’m not sure you’ve thought this through little buddy