DaDao大道

I wasn’t planning to share this, but it’s such a high-quality explanation of CPO that I have to. Just watch it. You’ll regret it if you don’t. youtu.be/wiH6d4m9o4o?si…

If you are having a bad day, just remember this guy on WSB sold calls on $MU

Why are people complaining about $NVDA lagging the semis bull run? You guys do realize that it’s up 14.5% YTD and 62.78% in the past 12 months right?

@Mr_Derivatives I mean it’s not a surprise, everyone and their mothers are selling $MSFT and $META to chase the semis. Which is why it’s the best time to buy the lows and wait for rotation back to them.

$MSFT and $META red on a day like today?! Wth.

@evrgn11112231 The FOA growth numbers have been exceptional for $META. I would say it’s pretty cheap now.

this thinking is exactly why people get endlessly burned on this stock you are supposed to “buy low sell high” $META

@SingularityRes @aleabitoreddit Thanks so much for putting this together. Give it a read and his commentary on NVDA and hyperscalers make me worried. Not sure how these chokepoint plays can do well if the entire market goes down and hyperscalers CAPEX folds by half…

Highest conviction of Serenity @aleabitoreddit at this time of this article was was Siver Semiconductor $SIVEF $SIVE.AB It’s up ~700% since the article

@buccocapital I like to think that large SaaS incumbents such as $NOW or $CRM have 2 main advantages over AI startups: 1) existing client relationships and reliability 2) high switching cost (why would a company switch out Salesforce for a vibe code product that works 99% of the time )

You have to be really careful with this line of thinking The assumption underlying this thesis that incumbent, public, SaaS 2.0 companies will be the winners But paradigm shifts show this is not always the case. In fact it rarely is I have been inside these companies. They are slow, bloated, have business models that largely preclude them from fully adopting AI, employees who don’t want to work that hard, and a host of other structural issues Their competitors are AI-native from the ground up with all that entails SaaS may not be dead, but I would think long and hard about why the incumbents have a right to win Go talk to people about the SaaS people are using and buying. Go talk to them about the AI features their current software is rolling out. The answer might change your mind

@tw_crypto_ For those of you who didn’t know Serenity from the Reddit days. He had insane art skills too! His Charzard technical analysis graph on $META was pure art! For that reason, he deserves a $1000 subscription!

Serenity vs Kevin Xu Kevin Xu: - $200 Subscription ❌ - $BOT was a loss ❌ - $QS was a loss ❌ - $HIMS was a loss ❌ - Gave up on $IREN❌ Serenity: - $1 Subscription✅ - $AXTI called at $15 (+1,000%)✅ - $SIVE called at 5 sek (+1,600%)✅ - $SOI called at $44 (+400%) ✅ - $TSM called at $110 (+150%)✅ - $NBIS called at $85 (+150%)✅ - $IQE called at 15 (+300%)✅ - The list goes on ... This shouldn't even be a discussion. And for those complaining about Serenity not posting numbers. Who cares. Percentages and wins mean more than seeing a PNL.

@Mr_Derivatives The next big equity indicator after the pentagon pizza indicator

The S&P500 averages just a meager +6.7% total return in the years the New York Knicks makes the NBA Finals. 🧐

$APH is my favorite “Picks & Shovels” compounder in the entire AI data center value chain. Secular Trend: Main thesis here is AI CAPEX spending on data centers plays out according to Jensen Huang during the recent $NVDA earnings call ($1 trillion by 2027; $3-4 trillion by 2030). This also means the AI infra buildout will last longer than most people expect. And $APH outgrows the industry as it is a moaty compounder that has pricing power. What they do in 1 sentence: They sell electronic components that transmit power for data centers under various stressful environments. (Products include interconnect systems, sensors, and specialty cables) The business is so stable that they were known for being the “consumer staples” within the industry. A few green flags I like about APH that screams moaty compounder: - Hyper decentralized structure with over 130 autonomous business units. - Smart segment/product mix: APH has 3 business segments all with good growth profile and margins. Think of a split between: AI data centers/military aerospace/automotive, medical, and others - I like diversification here as APH will act less like a monolithic tech manufacturer and more like a compounder. Product strategy wise, they avoid commoditized consumer products and focus on high mix & low volume. This means they dominate in specialized markets - if you are an AI data center, APH has you covered with the specific type of cable you need. A cable is cheap to a data center but will cause a big damage if it fails - this is APH’s moat because data centers will buy from them and won’t switch. They have pricing power because of this. - High switching cost: another main thesis for APH. APH doesn’t just sell parts, they work with customers on the power delivery infrastructure for 2-3 years before product even launches. - Growth profile: perfect mix of organic growth (a third of historic growth) and M&A growth (two thirds). Their M&A playbook has not only been accretive (ROIC goes up over time), but also helped them scale cost down (they get raw materials such as copper and precious metals for plating cheaper than anyone else). - Capital light business: CAPEX is 3-4% of sales. This is a business that grows without needing much additional investments. Fundamentals: They are a 162 billion market cap company making around 26 billion in topline (TTM) and makes free cashflow of 831 million. 2025 growth was incredible: 51.7% topline growth / 86% operating income growth / 43% FCF growth. Segment mix was split between Communications / Harsh Environment Solutions / Interconnect & Sensors, with revenue of roughly $12B / $6B / $5B respectively. Communications makes up nearly half of total revenue and grew an impressive 91% in 2025, which basically reflects the AI data center spending boom. Operating margins across the three segments are also strong at around 20–30%. Recent Q1 2026 results showed even higher growth numbers. Fundamentals speak for themselves here. And I align my thoughts with Jensen Huang - AI infra build out phase 2 is underway and I will gladly chill on this stock. Price action and Valuation: Price has come down quite a bit and the stock is down ~2% YTD but still almost doubled since January 2025. Recent weakness came from CommScope CCS post acquisition margin pressure. Historically APH recovers margins within 12–18 months post acquisition so this is temporary. Valuation isn’t cheap - good compounders rarely are and if you don’t buy them at a reasonable price, you never will own them. Forward PE of 26x isn’t cheap, but it’s where I call reasonable. And you factor in forward PEG of 1x, which is reasonable. Chart reads ok too, bounced off the $120 support area for both daily and weekly time frame. I’m ok adding more here.

@oguzerkan FOA growth has been exceptional! META is doing much better than most can imagine and it should trade at 30x earnings soon enough.

$META bears: There is no way $META can generate a decent ROI on AI capex. Are you aware that SpaceX just sold compute capacity to Anthropic? In the worst case, $META can monetize its compute at a hefty premium to cost, as it will have the largest training cluster by year-end.

@BeardedxScholar I am from Canada, I don’t own or short $SIVE BUT I love Korea and Sweden and Swedish short sellers.

Hello Swedish people I'm from Korea I own more than 30K $sive shares I know Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Alfred Nobel and Abba. I love Sweden and Swedish short sellers. THANK YOU

@Mapago9 I have a strong feeling of either $1,400 or $450, no middle ground here.

What is everyone's end of year price target for $MU ?

@Mr_Derivatives So did $PANW and $CRWD - not all softwares are created equal~

How the hell did $DDOG buck the software trend!? And by a lot…?!

@ErnestWongBWM I mean, back in 2018, nobody could really imagine $NVDA being $5 Trillion market cap while growing topline by 85% with a 75% gross margin.

In 2018, NVIDIA estimated its TAM to be $50 billion. Seems a bit conservative in hindsight.

@BarrySchwartzBW It’s not looking good for $FICO - not only have they lost their regulatory moat, FICO score 10T is 10x more expensive than VantageScore and isn’t that much better. Maybe fico slows their market share loss but they are no longer the monopoly compounder they used to be for sure.

$FICO notes from RBC FICO notes that market feedback from clients around the VantageScore pilot program implementation has been relatively lackluster, and the company sees a lag in broader implementation as it necessitates updates across pricing engines, rating agencies, lender origination systems, and Bloomberg terminal connections. The company noted that ecosystem players—including insurance models and rating agencies—are currently unprepared for a dual-score environment, and that rating agencies are still explicitly requiring FICO scores for securitization processes.

@realroseceline I sold a CSP last week. It’s a classic picks and shovel compounder play for data center spending.

Reading annual report of $APH quite an impressive business outperformed the $SPY by 3x over the last 5 years, trading at a reasonable value ~3% FCF/Earnings Yield 🌹

@lord_fed He’s already rocking them semi-leather jackets so I agree

We’re about 6 months away from this guy becoming the Jensen Huang of software.

@optionscjp @kevinxu I mean, after IREN, HIMS, and QS, if you are still following him, it’s 100% on you.

Ok who got Kevin xu’d today? The stock that he had people pay him $200/mo to tell them to buy is down 25% today @kevinxu

@Mr_Derivatives Most people online are expecting an immediate sell the news post earnings which is exactly why we rally 15%

If $NVDA goes up 10% this week, which is slightly over the implied move by Friday, it will hit $6,000,000,000,000.00 in market cap. Yes I added all the zeroes for effect. Good luck earnings degens.