Peter Wolf

Tesla Q1 sales. With partial data in, prediction of 290-300k sales in Q1. Significantly below most predictions. Q1 2025 was 336681. A 17% drop (in line with US & Europe, with China a lot worse) gets 279k. Some rebound. Full year prediction is 1.35m, down from 1.63m.

Astonishing. Trump can steal an unlimited amount of money - the $1.776bn isn't even real, it can be any amount. m.youtube.com/watch?v=tIBCjz…

@globalds @ArmchairAdml Why? Broadband + mobile is both cheaper + better in the UK. Just move him away from BT.

@ArmchairAdml Just fit a starlink on the roof and buy him a mobile

My grandad is being charged £98/month out of contract by BT for 300mb/s + phone line. I called them, ask to reduce the price. He tells me the best he can do is £65/month excluding the phone. The BT website has £28/month for both. I’m told if he logs into his account and does it online, it might be cheaper, but won’t be as cheap as the new customer deal. My grandad is 84 and has been a customer with BT longer than I’ve been alive. He makes phone calls and occasionally watches Netflix. He doesn’t know how to use his BT account. Pissed me off so much.

@GordonFielden We do not have a president in the UK. We have a Prime Minister. Labour got elected with a mandate - not Starmer. He's clearly unpopular and leading Labour to disaster. He should step down.

What is remarkable about this letter is not merely the resignation itself, but the extraordinary political miscalculation that underpins it. At a moment when the Labour Party possesses one of the strongest parliamentary mandates in modern British political history, there are those within its own ranks seemingly prepared to weaken the Government from within rather than recognise the scale of the challenges inherited after fourteen years of Conservative decline. To suggest that the Prime Minister should now prepare an “orderly transition” barely into government is not an act of strategic wisdom. It is an act of impatience and political self indulgence. Governments are not rebuilt overnight, economies are not repaired by rhetoric, and public services shattered over a decade do not recover within months. The contradictions within the letter are striking. It speaks of transformational programmes, of meaningful work undertaken in Government, of efforts to tackle hatred and division, yet then abruptly pivots into a demand that the very leadership overseeing those policies should effectively step aside. One cannot simultaneously claim to believe in collective responsibility whilst publicly detonating confidence in the administration one serves within. Most damaging of all is the timing. At a period where the political right, Reform, hostile media networks, and increasingly aggressive populist movements are seeking to fracture progressive politics across Britain, internal grandstanding of this nature only serves their interests. The electorate does not reward parties that appear consumed by internal ego and permanent instability. History has shown this repeatedly. The public delivered Labour a mandate to govern, not to descend into another era of factional warfare and theatrical resignations. The country requires seriousness, endurance, and discipline. Those who cannot uphold collective responsibility during difficult periods perhaps misunderstand entirely what government is supposed to demand of them.

@PlauDD @BonkDaCarnivore You missed at least one zero. 200% profit or 2000%. What's the real cost? Half a million? It's a bit of salary cost, some equipment hire and some paint.

@BonkDaCarnivore It is up to $13M now, I believe, with his buddy getting 20% profit.

He painted white granite to make it look like a community pool instead of a reflecting pool. Gave out the 6.9 million dollars (not 2 million as this user claims) in a no-bid contract that is shady as hell (I don't feel like going over all the details, but it's another quid pro quo deal). And, more importantly, didn't do anything to update the filtration of the pool itself, so it's going to be an ugly brown as more algae grows back, the pollen sets in, and the birds continue to use it as a toilet, within 6 months. Well done.

@AlfredAjoh58003 @FPLfrasier Still think so? bbc.co.uk/sport/football…

@Da___Wolf @FPLfrasier You're saying nonsense

I wasn’t a fan of Rodri winning the Ballon d’Or. But, when he was being talked about as the best player he was leading all sorts of stats. He was holding that midfield on his own. Stand out performances all season. Not the case for Declan Rice. I am sorry Arsenal fans, I rate Rice highly but he shouldn’t be winning the best player in the PL award.

@nateliie1970 @archer_rs @Bitchard11 Because they are stupid. Anyone voting for Reform is. Basically both Trump and Reform have realised that just flat out lying and never backing down works amongst some section of society.

@archer_rs @Bitchard11 He also said in an interview that he hasn’t said he wanted a US style insurance based health care. Why do the poorest in society, those least able to afford Deforms policies, vote for a party run by a bunch of posh public school boys?

TV presenter to Farage "You promised local council tax cuts" "I never said that" "Here is a film of you saying it" "I never said that" "The film clearly shows you saying it" "Can we move on now?" "Here is one of your leaflets where you say it" "Next question"

@TeamYouTube @DantyRanty__ Stop just "here's a DM" to people and start fixing your entire system. YouTube makes an ungodly amount of money so there's no excuse not to make a process that works better with creators and stops actual content thieves. It all comes down to human review.

@DantyRanty__ We've sent you a DM

Is YouTube serious???? 🚨🚨YOUTUBE JUST ADMITTED THEY DON'T EVEN REVIEW YOUR FULL CHANNEL BEFORE DEMONETIZING YOU🚨🚨 45 days ago I got demonetized for 'inauthentic content.' My case was escalated to the internal team for a second time. After two weeks of silence, I got another rejection — where in the SAME email YouTube said my channel was 'reviewed as a whole'... and then one line later admitted that 'reviewers can't check every video.' So which is it? But wait — it gets better. I was demonetized for 'inauthentic content.' But in their latest email they suddenly switched it to 'reused content.' Those are two completely different violations. YouTube can't even keep their story straight. On top of that, despite filing a formal complaint under the EU Digital Services Act, they still refuse to tell me which specific videos violate their policies. I have no idea what to even fix. 🚨🚨🚨Dear YuTube, if your reviewers "supossedly checked" the part of my channel that supposedly BREAK YOUR RULES... why can't you just tell me which part that is? This makes ZERO LOGICAL SENSE🚨🚨🚨 @TeamYouTube @YouTubeCreators @KreekCraft

@MikeSalter12 @4_Ben_Media It's the media. The ultra rich own pretty much all the media and have for a long time.

@4_Ben_Media If true, what makes Republicans the default for voters? Why would they be willing to endure a GOP recession & war, rather than vote for Dems' eternal economic growth & peace? Why did so many ppl vote for Orange Man Bad, including women & minorities? What aren't Dems learning?

I heard a guy explain that Republicans are the default. Democrats are only elected after Republicans fuck up. Once Democrats fix it the voters go back to Republicans. It's true considering every Republican president in my lifetime has started a recession and/or war

@gnoble79 In addition, Cybertruck is a complete failure. Both models X & S are being stopped, which is bad from a marketing perspective as it removes higher price anchors.

Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla. Let me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice: Elon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 "simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD." He said he wished it were otherwise. He said the memory bandwidth is one-eighth of what Hardware 4 has. And that's the end of the conversation. Approximately 4 million Tesla vehicles on the road right now have Hardware 3. Many of those owners paid $8,000 to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving capability based on Musk's repeated promises (going back to 2016) that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. As recently as 2022, Musk was publicly assuring owners that HW3 had the processing power to get it done. BUT IT DIDN'T Those promises are now officially broken. The solution is a "discounted trade-in" toward a new car with Hardware 4. Not a refund or a free upgrade... A discount on buying ANOTHER Tesla. Investor Ross Gerber said it too - all HW3 owners got screwed, and with roughly 285,000 FSD purchasers affected, the potential liability runs into the BILLIONS. But that's not even the worst part. Musk was asked if the current FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment. He said yes. Then immediately walked it back and admitted Tesla has "major architectural improvements" in the pipeline that would significantly improve safety. What he really means: the software isn't SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching. Full unsupervised FSD for consumer cars is pushed to Q4 2026. At the earliest... Maybe. How many times has this deadline been pushed? I've lost count. And trust me, I've seen a lot of broken promises. But this one takes the cake. Now let's talk about the numbers everyone is celebrating: Tesla reported $22.4 billion in revenue and $0.41 in non-GAAP earnings. A "double beat." The stock popped 4% after hours. Victory, right? WRONG Dig into the actual filing: The number one driver of operating income improvement wasn't cost reductions, wasn't volume growth, wasn't FSD revenue. It was - and Tesla listed this FIRST in their own shareholder letter - "one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs." They released warranty reserves. They booked tariff refund windfalls. They stretched supplier payments by 10 days. They took on billions in new debt. Then they presented everything through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock-based compensation. GAAP net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That's a 2.1% net margin. On a $1.4 trillion market cap. Let me put that in perspective: 3.75 billion shares outstanding. Annualize the Q1 GAAP profit and you get roughly $1.9 billion. That's a trailing P/E ratio north of 700. Use the adjusted number - strip out stock comp, which is a REAL cost to shareholders through dilution - and you're still at around 250x earnings. All of this is extremely bad, but I didn't even talk about the CAPEX BOMB yet... 3 months ago, Tesla guided to "over $20 billion" in 2026 capital expenditure. Last night they raised it to over $25 billion. A $5 billion increase in a single quarter. That's 3x their historical annual capex run rate - $8.5 billion in 2025, $11.3 billion in 2024. The CFO confirmed on the call that Tesla expects NEGATIVE free cash flow for the rest of the year. So you have a company generating roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow on a good year, and they're about to spend $25 billion. The math doesn't work. They will almost certainly need to issue equity. Which means dilution. Which means the $1.9 billion in annual earnings gets spread across even MORE shares. The core auto business is literally deteriorating in real time: Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 (missed estimates again). They produced 408,000. That's 50,000 cars sitting on lots that nobody bought. Inventory days jumped from 10 to 27 in just a few quarters. California (their most important US market) saw registrations crash 24% year over year. Their market share in the state fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. That's on top of a Q1 2025 that was ALREADY weak from Model Y retooling. They're declining off a decline. And here's what really kills the bull case... The entire valuation rests on robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomy. So let's put numbers on it: Waymo - the actual leader in autonomous driving with 15 million completed rides in 2025 alone, over 127 million autonomous miles driven, operating commercially across 6 US cities with plans to expand to 20 more - just raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation. That's the market's verdict on what the LEADING robotaxi company is worth. $126 billion. And Waymo is YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment. Tesla has 3.75 billion shares outstanding. So even if you assign $126 billion in robotaxi value (giving Tesla full credit for matching Waymo despite being nowhere close) that's $33 a share. Add the auto business at generous auto-industry multiples, maybe $20 a share. Throw in energy storage and services, $10-15. Sum of the parts gets you to roughly $65-70 a share if you're feeling generous. Maybe $50 if you're not. The stock is $387. So what exactly are you paying for? You're paying for a STORY. You're paying for PROMISES that keep getting pushed back, technology that keeps falling short, and a business plan that requires spending $25 billion a year while the core product sells fewer units at declining margins in a market where California sales just fell 24% and the federal EV tax credit is gone. I managed the number one mutual fund in America. I founded two billion-dollar hedge funds. I've been doing this since 1981. And I am telling you: Tesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career. THE CRASH WILL BE EPIC

@ukraine_map I'm waiting for the night when Ukraine specially targets Moscow's air defenses. Their locations are known.

Moscow will be the last to lack air defenses. There are +100 SAM systems just for Moscow. Russia is reluctant to move them out of Moscow to other cities Putin’s residences have dozens of air defenses surrounding them as well. Overtime, Russia’s missile success rate will decrease

I wonder what’s will happen after Russia losses hundreds more air defense systems? Today, 8 FP-2s struck Donetsk, earlier Ukraine stuck Tuapse and an oil platform in the Caspian Sea with dozens of UAVs What will it look like when Russia’s air defenses are even more nonexistent?

@Rebel44CZ Completely agree with this. Always been a bit strange that some drones are included while others aren't for example, as pretty much all drones are expendables.

Some long-discussed/planned changes that I am now starting to implement on the Oryx loss list for the war in Ukraine:

@McFaul We all know the reason. Putin has kompromat on Trump and Trump is a traitor.

Why? Why is Trump doing this?

@PersonMcPe5498 @tobyasky A lot of it ends up getting bought by people who then end up with spare bedrooms, reducing overall supply and exacerbating housing shortages.

@Da___Wolf @tobyasky Which increases purchase supply.

Let me summarise for you guys. As a tenant, you can leave anytime you want, nothing like 12 or 24 months contract. You only have to give your landlord 2 months notice if you need to leave asap. Landlords cannot evict you anytime, maybe because they or their families want to move into the property, they must provide legal grounds like unpaid rent, etc…you can even take them to court if you feel it’s not right and access free legal advice. Landlords can only increase rent once per year, but if you feel it’s above the market rate, you can challenge it that it’s too much. You have a right to a pet, and you can make that request even if landlord says he doesn’t want pet in his property. Summary is that the law is trying to give tenants stronger rights, stability and negotiating power.

@PersonMcPe5498 @tobyasky Which reduces rental supply. nrla.org.uk/news/landlords….

@Da___Wolf @tobyasky Sell the houses then 🤷‍♂️

@tobyasky Oñûb.

@kamilkazani The stupidity of voters thinking the Republicans are a no wars party. They hear propaganda and they believe it, to their core, no matter how many times it's shown to be propaganda.

That gives me a strong deja vu feeling. Because that is exactly what the Dem propaganda had been telling before their most crushing defeat, in decades For the Republicans, it will be even worse because they explicitly branded themselves as a no more wars party

@tavirahog @DafTrucker4 @ianrich15813274 I'm not an electrician or a plumber or anything of that type. This has DIRECTLY affected what projects I can do. Believe me or not I don't really care but you asked for an impact - this has directly impacted me. Later, it will affect where I can retire to.

@Da___Wolf @DafTrucker4 @ianrich15813274 No it isn’t. I personally know several self employed Brits that live and work in Europe. There are tv programmes about it on telly every day. If you really want it, you will do it.

Increasingly, the claim 'we voted for Brexit' is misleading, at best. Take my son & elder daughter, 27 & 24, they didn't get a vote in the 2016 Referendum. Their gran & grandad did, but as is the way with these things, they are both dead. How many more years to be asked again?

@tavirahog @DafTrucker4 @ianrich15813274 No, I can't. I don't work for other people. I do my own projects. So to work is not "get a job" it's "can I do something entrepreneurial in another country in Europe". And that is only possible now with a massive amount of difficulty.

@Da___Wolf @DafTrucker4 @ianrich15813274 You CAN live and work in Europe. You just don’t really want to. There is NO direct link to Brexit having a negative effect on our economy. Our current massive debt is down to both the tories and this disastrous Labour government

@DafTrucker4 @tavirahog @ianrich15813274 Living in Europe. Working in Europe. It has directly impacted choices that I could have made. And for zero benefit. Brexit is a direct cause of why Britain is in so much massive debt now, with our prospects looking far worse than in 2008 (Tories are the other cause).

@Da___Wolf @tavirahog @ianrich15813274 Shit how? What has brexit stopped you doing?