The Hard Truth

Markets don’t move on news. They move on liquidity. A quick framework: 1. Liquidity expands → risk assets rise 2. Liquidity contracts → everything sells 3. Volatility = forced repositioning 4. News = trigger, not cause 5. Leverage amplifies both directions Most people react to headlines. Professionals track liquidity. If you understand liquidity, you stop reacting. And start anticipating. Most people learn this after they lose money.

@bgarlinghouse @Coachjv_ Everyone calls it simple now. That’s what happens after it’s built. Timing matters.

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@biancoresearch Sounds controlled. Markets aren’t buying that. Look at oil.

No TACO *TRUMP: MUST COMPLETE MISSION IN IRAN *TRUMP: GETTING VERY CLOSE TO FINISHING JOB IN IRAN *TRUMP: WE WILL FINISH THE JOB VERY FAST *TRUMP: WILL HIT IRAN EXTREMELY HARD OVER NEXT 2-3 WEEKS *TRUMP SAYS US WILL HIT IRAN'S ELECTRIC PLANTS IF NO DEAL

@KobeissiLetter Everyone expected calm. Oil chose chaos. Markets don’t wait for the script.

The entire market was expecting President Trump's address to the nation to be de-escalatory. Instead, he said the war will continue until late-April, threatened to strike Iranian power plants, and said Iran will be sent back to the "stone age." Oil prices have all your answers.

@KobeissiLetter Strong words. Oil already reacted. Markets don’t wait for permission.

SUMMARY OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S ADDRESS TO THE NATION: 1. The Iran War will last another "two to three weeks" 2. The US will strike Iranian power plants if no deal is reached 3. Core strategic objectives are "close to completion" in Iran 4. The US "will bring Iran back to the stone age" 5. The US will not import oil from the Strait of Hormuz in the future 6. "Iran's navy is gone and their air force is in ruins" US oil prices are surging above $103/barrel after the speech.

@KobeissiLetter +60% isn’t a rally… it’s a shock. Energy reprices when supply breaks. This is just the first move.

BREAKING: Brent crude oil futures prices officially end March 2026 with a +60% gain, posting the largest monthly gain since the creations of the futures contract in 1988. US gas prices are up by +$1.25/gallon since December.

@Julietrhem @KobeissiLetter The Hard Truth: Deep State Destroyed Evidence Seized Patriots Win

@KobeissiLetter Wait… can someone explain this in a simple way? 😩

BREAKING: President Trump says the US will leave Iran in “2 to 3 weeks.”

@Geiger_Capital Laws were written for a different world. Reality evolved… the system didn’t. That gap is where the pressure builds.

On this… he is 100% correct.

@ByzGeneral Liquidity gets taken… then price moves to refill it. Positioning builds… then it unwinds. The move isn’t random—it’s mechanical.

$BTC kinda looking like it wants to move a bit higher short term. Significant amount of liquidity taken at that local low with increased OI build up that now probably wants to offload.

@FusionptCapital @donnelly_brent And That’s The Hard Truth

Friendly reminder you are a hamster in one of, if not the largest experiment in human history of misinformation, fake experts, engagement accounts, and billionaire driven curated feeds Thinking for yourself + not getting sucked into the bs is literally the bare minimum

@donnelly_brent When everyone is hedged… downside gets muted. Upside is where the squeeze lives.

Agree with this. FX skew shows same thing. Lotta put buying in EUR especially.

@KobeissiLetter Oil doesn’t grind higher… it reprices. Supply shocks don’t move in percentages. They move in steps.

BREAKING: US oil prices surge above $105/barrel, now up +22% since Wednesday.

@KobeissiLetter Fear works… until it gets crowded. When everyone is positioned for downside, the move is usually the other way.

Investor risk appetite is plunging: The ratio of leveraged long to short ETF trading volume is down to ~1.1, the lowest since the April 2025 “Liberation Day” bottom. This means trading activity in leveraged short ETFs is now nearly equal to that of leveraged long ETFs. By comparison, the indicator reached 3.0 in October, when bullish bets heavily outweighed bearish ones. This ratio is now approaching the 2022 bear market and 2020 pandemic lows, when investors were heavily positioned for further declines. By comparison, this ratio fell to 0.4 at the 2008 Financial Crisis bottom, meaning short ETF trading volume exceeded long ETF volume by ~150%. Is the fear trade becoming too crowded?

@Samra_D @mercoglianos @biancoresearch It’s designed to look stable. That’s how you miss the shift. Instability shows up after.

@DailyHardTruth @mercoglianos @biancoresearch It's not intended to be stable

The Strait of Hormuz just hit double digits transits since the beginning of March, a total of 11 on March 27 & 28. It should be noted that these numbers are largely due to bulk carriers delivering food to Iran. In the meantime, Iranian tankers are running the Strait dark.

@KobeissiLetter News doesn’t move markets… positioning does. Headlines trigger the move. Positioning decides the direction.

UPDATE: Iran’s "reverse indicator" trading advice continues to play out in real-time: At 4:12 PM ET on Sunday, Iran's Speaker of the Parliament said pre-market news is a "reverse indicator," if they "dump" the market, then "go long," and "if they pump it, short it." By 10:00 PM ET last night, S&P 500 futures had fallen nearly -1% on mounting war concerns. By 12:00 AM ET, 2 hours later, S&P 500 futures had reversed all losses and turned green. Then, at 7:25 AM ET today, President Trump posted that "great progress" is being made on peace talks sending the S&P 500 +100 points off of its low. Now, at 3:00 PM ET, just ~7 hours later, the S&P 500 has turned red and is down -100 points from its high, once again "reversing" price action. That's a near $2 trillion swing in S&P 500 market cap in less than 24 hours. There is truly never a dull moment in this market.

@Geiger_Capital Leaders don’t fall… until they all do. Crowded trades unwind fast. Rotation isn’t a warning—it’s already happening.

MAG7 Performance YTD: 🔴 $AAPL -9% 🔴 $NVDA -11% 🔴 $AMZN -13% 🔴 $GOOGL -13% 🔴 $META -19% 🔴 $TSLA -21% 🔴 $MSFT -26%

@KobeissiLetter Demand didn’t disappear. Supply got cut off. That’s how shortages turn into spikes.

BREAKING: China is now on track to import 3.69 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas in March, the lowest since 2018. That would mark a -45% decline from January and a -57% drop from December, amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Last year, China imported ~30% of its LNG from Qatar. As a result, Asian LNG prices have nearly DOUBLED this month as buyers compete for an increasingly limited supply. Chinese companies are now relying more on domestic gas and pipeline deliveries to offset the shortage. China’s LNG imports are collapsing amid the Iran War.

@Geiger_Capital +55% gets attention. But narratives always show up late. The real money was made in the “sleeping” phase.

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@AndreasSteno @LynAldenContact You can’t print oil. You can’t hike away shortages. Supply shocks don’t listen to the Fed.

*POWELL: FED'S TOOLS HAVE NO MEANINGFUL EFFECT ON SUPPLY SHOCKS This is in my opinion the right take, and it completely punctures the probability of rate hikes in the US. They are going to sit this one through

@KobeissiLetter 14 weeks up… everyone sees the move. But flows always chase the top. That’s where risk actually begins.

Energy stocks are making history: The US Energy Select Sector Index has gained for 14 consecutive weeks, the longest streak on record. The index has rallied +43% over that stretch, fueled by the Iran War and investor rotation out of software and AI stocks earlier this year. Over the same period, investors have poured a massive +$5.5 billion into the Energy Sector ETF, $XLE. To put this into perspective, the previous record was 10 weeks, set in 1998. Energy stocks have also reached 25 all-time highs year-to-date, the most in a single year since the 41 records set in 2007. Energy stock prices are soaring.

@surplustakes @WClemente There is no global gas market. There are trapped markets… and protected ones. Geography decides the price.

Useful from Michael Cembalest of JPM on the so-called "global market" in natural gas: "European pipeline/LNG prices are spiking and so are Asian LNG import prices... In contrast, US Henry Hub natural gas prices have barely budged... the same is true in Australia and Canada which also produce a lot of gas."