Will

Kimi K3 may be an important inflection point for AI. Potentially negative for Anthropic and OpenAI while being net positive for essentially every other company in the world. I mean that very literally. Although the real “Sputnik moment” would be an open-source frontier model that was also token efficient unlike Kimi K3 which is 50-70% more expensive to run than GPT 5.6 per Artificial Analysis. Rationale:   A world where there are only 2-3 dominant frontier labs with 90% inference margins is net negative for every other layer while being awesome for those 2-3 labs. Those labs would become monopsonies for power, data centers, semiconductors and hyperscalers and would obviously vertically integrate over time into all those layers while also completely subsuming the application/software layers.    Anything that lowers margins and increases competition at the model layer is good for every other AI layer: power, semiconductors, hyperscalers, neoclouds and yes even software.   This is why Jensen is so supportive of open-source. An open-source model requires the *exact* same amount of compute to run as a closed frontier model of similar size and architecture. Kimi K3 is roughly the same price as GPT 5.6 Terra on a per token basis, which actually suggests that it is less computationally efficient as I am sure that GPT 5.6 is priced to a higher margin than K3. And given that K3 is a token wastrel, i.e. token inefficient, it is significantly more expensive per task than GPT 5.6 and Grok 4.5, which are much more token efficient. Cost per token and token efficiency (i.e. intelligence density per token) are the drivers of intelligence per unit of cost. The winning AI companies will be those that offer the most intelligence per $ over time.   Lower margin % at the model layer = more margin $ at every part of the infrastructure layer and is a godsend for software. This can happen either through open-source models like K3 at the frontier *or* having a vertically integrated model company like Meta, SpaceX or Google at the frontier. Both outcomes result in a lower margin % at the model layer as vertically integrated model companies don’t really care where the margin $ come from. This is why it was so painful for OpenAI and Anthropic when Google was right there with them from a model competitiveness perspective and why Grok 4.5 and Muse 1.1 were just as important as Kimi K3. 
The reason Kimi K3 is only *potentially* negative for Anthropic and OpenAI is 1) the @ericvishria point that the Claude and ChatGPT products and harnesses may be more important than their models today and 2) the hypothesis that they have much more advanced model checkpoints internally that are already being used for RSI. In the latter scenario, reaching RSI even a few months ahead of other labs might be enough to cement a permanent lead. Time will tell on both points. And likely fairly quickly. Caveat would be that since Kimi K3 is not token efficient and thereby actually more expensive than ChatGPT 5.6, we may need to see a more token efficient open-source model at the frontier or see Grok 5/Composer 4/Muse 2 at multiple points on the Pareto frontier for this potential risk to Anthropic and OpenAI to play out. And I am sure they will both vertically integrate as quickly as possible while continuing the product/harness strength they have shown over the last 8 months.

We back! Really good one

From an ecological perspective, western frontier models are a common pool resource that Chinese open weight models exploit. They are finite, because if you exploit them too hard, they lose the incentive and resources to train new models, and everyone loses. (Chinese models aren’t magically good, they are good because Ant and OAI spend a lot of money on training). If you think about it like a parasite/host relationship, Chinese models are a parasite that needs to calibrate its exploitation so that the host doesn’t die. Kimi arguably made a mistake. It overexploited the host and imperiled the Ant OAI growth story. So at equilibrium you’d expect open weight models to “tastefully” exploit the western frontier and choose to remain 6 months behind and slightly inferior capability wise. However perhaps Kimi, Qwen, GLM, deepseek etc may not be playing an equilibrium game. They might be under orders to puncture the American lab growth story, even if it means killing their own host. Maybe the time is now because OAI and Ant are most vulnerable ahead of the IPO. Maybe Xi just had a bad day. Or maybe Kimi defected from the gentleman’s agreement that the Chinese labs share to not kill the host that they all rely on.

SITUATION EXPLAINED: Kimi K3 just beat Fable on a major coding benchmark, at a fraction of the price. • Kimi K3 beat Fable on Frontend Code Arena • The gap between Kimi and Fable is bigger than the gap between Fable and Sol • It also smashes Opus outright, while being priced the same as Sonnet, $3/$15 per million tokens • Sonnet 5 High currently sits in 10th place on this leaderboard at that same price point • The generational jump is dramatic: Kimi K2.6 ranked 18th on this benchmark, K3 jumped 17 spots to take the top spot • K3 ranked #1 in 6 of 7 tested domains: brand and marketing, reference-based design, data and analytics, consumer products, simulations, and content creation tools, it placed #2, only in gaming, behind Fable • Full model weights are set to release July 27th @theojaffee: "Imagine if Anthropic were a public company today, their stock would be down 20%, maybe more, enterprises are probably not gonna be spending $10 and $50 on Fable when they can instead be spending $3 and $15 on Kimi K3."

The past month has been the craziest 30-day period ever in Korea’s stock market. Actual vol’s now topped the highs during the GFC

MESSI SENDS IT INTO TO LAUTARO MARTÍNEZ AND ARGENTINA TAKES THE LEAD IN STOPPAGE TIME 🇦🇷 WOULD YOU BELIEVE IT?! 🤯

Seems like this will likely continue to be a major topic of discussion

This is more likely to be the beginning of a trend than the end, Texas likely to be a big beneficiary

@fintechfrank 🫡

@WClemente Missed you!

So nice to see people/accounts I actually follow and am interested in on my timeline instead of polarizing slop, nice work Nikita

bitcoin is much closer to the end of its bear market than the beginning. ETFs are puking their brains out on top of treasury company selling, who's been buying? while long term holders now hold record supply, btc has traded into lower bound of on-chain valuation methodologies.

@jvb_xyz What up!!

@WClemente Will, nice to see you! Haven’t seen your stuff on my timeline in ages

@stephanlivera @_Checkmatey_ @_checkonchain This was good

James Check: Spot Buyers Saving Bitcoin Amid Time Pain | SLP755 @_Checkmatey_ of @_checkonchain, joins me to break down the current cycle through on-chain data and market psychology. We’ve seen sales from ETFs and some Treasury Companies, but spot demand remains in a shallow bear market. Check examines why short-term holders flipped into high-conviction buyers, 53K realized price might be a floor and the Pareto distribution among Bitcoin treasury companies. Timestamps: 00:56 — Last Day of Bear Feels Worst 03:26 — Time Pain Grinds Out Weak Hands 05:53 — Shallowest Bear Market Ever Seen 08:53 — Spot Buyers Saving Bitcoin From Zero 11:14 — Short-Term Holders Are Now Smart Money 15:28 — July Bear Bottom: 8-Method Average 18:50 — 53K Realized Price Now the Floor 23:00 — Buy Bottom 15% and Just DCA 28:30 — The AI Trade 30:46 — Bitcoin and Gold Share a Rare Moat 35:23 — Will Most Bitcoin Treasuries Fail? 37:37 — MSTR's Sale of Bitcoin 41:28 — Bitcoin Treasuries Follow Harsh Pareto Rule 47:30 — Bitcoin Treasuries Next Cycle 49:05 — High-Yield Trap?

@mrpsyop Gm

@WClemente gm will

Might have a window where tourists are gone, valuations compress, only high quality names get funded from a scarcer pool of VC capital, and quality probably improves. Next few months could be the best backdrop to deploy into liquid crypto mkts ever (that make money & find PMF).

So many homies liking this in 5 mins that I haven't interacted with on here in a while. Yoooo!! Hope you guys are all having a lovely year

JUNE CPI Waller gets his wish. Cold inflation across the board. Supercore -.20% month-over-month...Largest decline since May 2020 (Covid lockdowns).

Pretty big hawkish shift in that Waller speech. Putting a heavy weight on tomorrow's CPI.

It does seem a little crazy that every day people get sports gambling and prediction market ads thrown in their face all day yet you’re not allowed to invest in innovative private companies. Seems more like more of a way to gate keep deal flow for the wealthy & institutions.

bitcoin is made of long term holders metrics at an all-time high: - supply last active ≥ 10 years (17.7%) - long-term-holder supply (16.75M) - long-term-holder realized cap ($836.4B) - long-term-holder realized price ($50k)