@yuanlintech @kevinbonham @rockoyster Would have needed to be 67-68% to Milthorpe for her to win which is probably pushing it even with different HTVs.
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Dania Freidgeim
53 posts
Dania Freidgeim
@DaniaFreidgeim
Graduate researcher in statistical election auditing & election modelling. Creator of the First Preference election model. https://t.co/rpjCy51yDN
Melbourne Katılım Ekim 2024
27 Takip Edilen7 Takipçiler
@kevinbonham @rockoyster Even if Coalition preferences flowed 63% to Milthorpe, One Nation would have still won with a 2CP of 51.7% over Milthorpe.
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I'll be doing a post mortem of the Farrer by-election on Tally Room live feed starting about 8:30 youtube.com/watch?v=rQaKED…
YouTube
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@mumbletwits Even 32-33% flows to One Nation might have been enough. One Nation needed 33% of overall prefs to win, and the minor party preferences (primarily left leaning) probably averaged to something like that.
I agree that different HTV cards still unlikely to achieve that
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Rough back of envelope: Lib+Nats preferences flowed about 65% (give/take several) to One Nation (so ~35% to Milthorpe).
For Milthorpe to win, it needed to be well south of 30%.
It’s doubtful different HTV cards could’ve achieved that.
(And membership would’ve mutinied?)
#farrer
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@kevinbonham @yuanlintech @Maggie_Perry6 Most likely Nationals' primary will be a fair bit higher than GRN, but it's possible some Nationals prefs would leak instead to One Nation at the 3CP stage?
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@yuanlintech @Maggie_Perry6 Don't forget GRN prefs would likely go mostly to Milthorpe in that scenario.
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On @Maggie_Perry6's predicted primary votes, the Liberal Party could win. The Liberal Party could pass Milthorpe to reach second place with the help of Nationals’ preferences, although the contest between IND Milthorpe and the Liberal Party for second place will be very tight.
6 News Australia@6NewsAU
Farrer has a chance of electing a One Nation member to the House of Representatives for the first time – or it could be second time lucky for Michelle Milthorpe Here's our predictions for tomorrow's by-election – but what's yours? Let us know ⬇️
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View the interactive model on the website: electionfirstpreference.com/farrer-by-elec…
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@TziporahMalkah @6NewsAU Glad you found it easy to follow! Will have more modelling for the Victorian state election later this year:)
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@DaniaFreidgeim @6NewsAU I'm a luddite & even I understood your website
It's been made imo by people who understand how key user-friendliness is to all people, including middle aged women like me
Thank you!
I hope it remains up for more elections to come 💐
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Farrer has a chance of electing a One Nation member to the House of Representatives for the first time – or it could be second time lucky for Michelle Milthorpe
Here's our predictions for tomorrow's by-election – but what's yours? Let us know ⬇️
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@yuanlintech @GoblinDownUnder Sounds about right. I think it was a 61 2CP.
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@DaniaFreidgeim @GoblinDownUnder My record is IND Milthorpe 26.34%, LIB 23.84% and NAT 9.02%. Haven't recorded primaries for others and the ON vs IND 2CP.
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@yuanlintech @GoblinDownUnder Just checked - in 10% of simulations, the Liberals leapfrog the Independent from an initial First Preferences order of 1. ON, 2. IND, 3. LIB. They go on to beat One Nation in 60% of those cases.
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@GoblinDownUnder How likely do you think this will happen @DaniaFreidgeim?
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@yuanlintech @GoblinDownUnder I reckon under both scenarios it's pretty likely that Liberals will overtake Milthorpe, and have a decent chance of beating ON. In my modelling, I've been giving Liberals 70% of the Nationals' preferences to determine if they overtake IND and make the 2CP.
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@6NewsAU View the full interactive model on the website: electionfirstpreference.com/farrer-by-elec…
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@6NewsAU A poll-based by-election model I've published suggests the contest might be tighter. It gives One Nation a 49% chance of winning with average First Preference votes of
ON: 31%
IND: 29%
LIB: 20%
NAT: 6.5%
Link to the full interactive model below 👇
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@yuanlintech @NotTurnbull There's still a fair bit of error/uncertainty involved in projecting national polls onto individual electorates (as well as in seat polls). So even if the polls are right, the swing might not be uniform (considering Farrer is rural but with an unusually low 2025 ON vote)
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@NotTurnbull @DaniaFreidgeim One Nation is still polling higher than the Coalition in almost all national polls, and One Nation vote will be strongest in rural areas. So unless there's something seriously wrong with the polls, One Nation will not be excluded in Farrer.
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Lab and Lib voters basically just saw the ind as the Labor candidate
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@yuanlintech @NotTurnbull True it's unlikely, but there's a ~20% chance of ON being excluded according to my model for the Farrer by-election electionfirstpreference.com/farrer-by-elec…
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@DaniaFreidgeim @NotTurnbull ON won't be excluded in the Farrer by-election, so we will never know the true ON to IND flow at the Farrer by-election.
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@NotTurnbull @yuanlintech Quite possibly. Yeah, the ON->IND flow in Farrer was the strongest of all the Coalition-IND contests by quite a way, so curious to see if that holds at the by-election.
Might be something unique about more rural electorates (flow in Indi was also stronger than in urban areas)
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@DaniaFreidgeim @yuanlintech in Flinders the IND also got bad ONP pref flows. Though the IND in Farrer got good ONP flows.
Maybe as the ONP vote has gotten a lot more ex-LNP voters
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@NotTurnbull @yuanlintech Perhaps this sentiment has gotten stronger now that One Nation has greater support, considering ON's preference flows to Hutchinson seem a fair bit lower than to the independent in the federal seat of Flinders who was also perceived as a Teal
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@yuanlintech One Nation voters probably don't like any independent they perceive as a Teal
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@yuanlintech Interested in how you got that 68% figure. The pollbludger's 3CP would suggest that One Nation went 22/28 to Libs (closer to 80% pref flow) over the Ind (even though that's estimating preferences at last exclusion).
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@TheKouk View the interactive model on the website: electionfirstpreference.com/farrer-by-elec…
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@TheKouk Interestingly, a probabilistic model I've published suggests the contest is tighter than the current betting odds.
A historically-calibrated blend of national and seat polls gives win probabilities of:
ON: 49%
IND: 38%
LIB: 13%
Link to the full interactive model below
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Farrer by election betting update - below are the odds from 14 February for reference:
Latest odds:
One Nation $1.13
Independent $5.00
Liberal $21.00
National $61.00
Big moves
Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk
Looking at the form for Flemington and Randwick today, I came across these odds. Farrer by-election betting: Nationals $1.87 Liberal Party $3.30 Independent $4.50 One Nation $7.00 BTW: Best bets Randwick Race 5 It's a Knockout Flemington Race 6 St George [Do your own research and bet only what you can afford to lose - you win some, you lose more]
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View the interactive model ahttps://electionfirstpreference.com/farrer-by-election/nd methodology on the website:
🔗 electionfirstpreference.com/farrer-by-elec…
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The model describes the distribution of First Preference votes for each party.
It accounts for changes in incumbency, the mix of contesting parties, and current polling—producing a distribution of outcomes based on historical election variability.
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