Yuan (Joseph) Lin

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Yuan (Joseph) Lin

Yuan (Joseph) Lin

@yuanlintech

Progressive political nerd. #ClimateActionNow #independentsday #VoteYes

Woiwurung land (Melbourne) Katılım Ağustos 2016
878 Takip Edilen525 Takipçiler
Yuan (Joseph) Lin
Yuan (Joseph) Lin@yuanlintech·
@kevinbonham because a Liberal minority govt would need the support of ON to pass the vast majority of legislation opposed by Labor, and the last thing the Greens want is for the Liberals to pass legislation with the support of ON that are likely to be highly regressive.
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Yuan (Joseph) Lin
Yuan (Joseph) Lin@yuanlintech·
@kevinbonham If such seat numbers is the outcome of an election, Labor will need the support of the Greens and at least 3 of the 4 INDs to govern. Labor would dare the Greens to vote against the motion again. It would be more difficult for the Greens to vote against the motion this time,
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RammaRedDevil
RammaRedDevil@CamelTamer·
@kevinbonham Let’s not forget that this news poll was taken before the budget reply
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Kevin Bonham
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham·
#Newspoll ALP 31 L-NP 20 ON 27 Grn 12 Ind/other 10 My 2PP estimate for this poll 54.0 to ALP (-0.7) vs ON 53.0 to ALP (-1.7)
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Yuan (Joseph) Lin
Yuan (Joseph) Lin@yuanlintech·
@kevinbonham Queenslanders vote very differently at state and federal elections. LNP can get close to winning the state seat of Stafford at a state by-election but finishes third in the overlapping federal seat of Lilley at the federal election.
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Kevin Bonham
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham·
Despite the One Nation incursion and meltdown in the Coalition vote in many other places, can't be much wrong with the Qld LNP brand if they can nearly win a by-election in such an unfavourable seat.
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Kevin Bonham
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham·
The 2PP swing to the LNP in the #Stafford by-election will be the largest 2PP swing to govt in a Queensland by-election where an exact 2PP swing could be computed since at least 1980. If anyone has a source for Qld by-election numbers pre 1980, could check back further. #qldpol
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Yuan (Joseph) Lin
Yuan (Joseph) Lin@yuanlintech·
@kevinbonham Some of the lost Labor votes have gone to the Greens and other minor left candidates as well, because the increase in the LNP vote (2.4%) was much lower than the decrease in the Labor vote (8.1%).
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Kevin Bonham
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham·
Note also re #Stafford - there's a 3% swing against the Greens but unlike Farrer this is not a bad result; minor left candidates have got 8.9% after none contested the seat in 2024. 8.7% has left ALP but a lot of that has gone to LNP. Will probably be a 3CP swing to Greens.
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Yuan (Joseph) Lin
Yuan (Joseph) Lin@yuanlintech·
Nepean’s 2026 VIC election vote could be like this: LIB: 38.0% ONP: 20.5% IND Hutchison: 18.1% ALP: 10.7% GRN: 6.4% OTH: 6.3%
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Yuan (Joseph) Lin
Yuan (Joseph) Lin@yuanlintech·
Firstly, Labor has no chance of winning Nepean and will probably run dead in Nepean come November. Most importantly, Hutchison seems to be the candidate that poses the most serious challenge to the Liberals and the candidate that is best capable of keeping One Nation out of 2CP.
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Yuan (Joseph) Lin
Yuan (Joseph) Lin@yuanlintech·
However, I reckon most 2022 Labor voters who voted for Hutchison in the 2026 by-election with no Labor candidate would stick with her in the general election in November even with a Labor candidate, mostly for strategic reasons.
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Yuan (Joseph) Lin
Yuan (Joseph) Lin@yuanlintech·
This will probably happen again in the November state election, as some of Hutchison's voters were 2022 Labor voters who will return to Labor when Labor runs a candidate in Nepean in the state election but will preference Hutchison over both the Liberal Party and One Nation.
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Yuan (Joseph) Lin
Yuan (Joseph) Lin@yuanlintech·
The distribution of preferences for Nepean has confirmed that One Nation has finished third in Nepean after independent Tracee Hutchison overtook One Nation with the help of strong preference flows from the Greens. vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-…
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Kevin Bonham
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham·
@jokingcat77 Shortland was frequently said to be likely to fall last election and Labor got a 5.5% swing in it!
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Kevin Bonham
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham·
Because the BRS for Canning BS wasn't silly enough today's rumour is Tony Abbott runs for lower house seat. Those responsible please entertain me by telling me what seat he would win.
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Leo Puglisi
Leo Puglisi@Leo_Puglisi6·
Roy Morgan published the results from the Eastern Victoria Region (which Nepean is in) which had One Nation leading primary votes on 36% It's a seat that expands to Gippsland so not sure how much can be read into it for the by-election but interesting to note (subsample of ~200)
Leo Puglisi tweet media
AusPoll@AusPoll6

🚨 NEW: Victoria (state) voting intention 🟥 ALP: 25.5% (-) 🟧 ONP: 24.5% (-2) 🟦 L/NP: 24% (+2.5) 🟩 GRN: 13.5% (-) ⬜️ IND: 8.5% (-0.5) ⬛️ OTH: 4% (-) Two-party-preferred 🟥 ALP: 51% (-1) 🟦 L/NP: 49% (+1) ALP vs ONP 🟥 ALP: 53.5% (+1) 🟧 ONP: 46.5% (-1) L/NP vs ONP 🟦 L/NP: 59% (+3) 🟧 ONP: 41% (-3) Roy Morgan | 22-24 Apr | n=1707 | +/- 13-16 Feb

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Yuan (Joseph) Lin
Yuan (Joseph) Lin@yuanlintech·
@birdofparadox85 @rohancct @Leo_Puglisi6 This seat has been realigning away from Labor in the last two decades, and with many white working class Labor voters turning to ON (like northern Adelaide), Labor could well get knocked out of 2CP. The Nationals are unlikely to be knocked out of 2CP with a sitting MP.
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Bird of paradox
Bird of paradox@birdofparadox85·
@rohancct @Leo_Puglisi6 And Morwell! Probably the most likely ON win - recently won by an independent, economically depressed after losing a major local industry (like northern Adelaide), and Labor probably won't get knocked out of the 2cp (ON vs Lib/Nat is harder for ON to win).
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Yuan (Joseph) Lin
Yuan (Joseph) Lin@yuanlintech·
@kevinbonham Partly motivated by self-interest I think. She will have little chance of retaining her Senate seat in 2028 under the banner of "Tammy Tyrell for Tasmania".
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Kevin Bonham
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham·
🚨Labor has gained another Senator with Tasmanian ex-Lambie Network Senator Tammy Tyrrell joining the ALP. #politas
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Kevin Bonham
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham·
@yuanlintech @rockoyster I've discussed further on my site the possibility that the follow rate is lower than normal making it inconclusive whether Milthorpe could have won had both Coalition parties recommended prefs to her.
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Yuan (Joseph) Lin
Yuan (Joseph) Lin@yuanlintech·
@DaniaFreidgeim @mumbletwits I agree. At the time of writing, I estimated that Milthorpe needs 68.9% of Coalition preferences to win, which I don't think it's achievable even with HTVs recommending preferences to Milthorpe, considering how few voters would have seen, let alone followed Coalition HTVs.
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Dania Freidgeim
Dania Freidgeim@DaniaFreidgeim·
@mumbletwits Even 32-33% flows to One Nation might have been enough. One Nation needed 33% of overall prefs to win, and the minor party preferences (primarily left leaning) probably averaged to something like that. I agree that different HTV cards still unlikely to achieve that
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Peter Brent
Peter Brent@mumbletwits·
Rough back of envelope: Lib+Nats preferences flowed about 65% (give/take several) to One Nation (so ~35% to Milthorpe). For Milthorpe to win, it needed to be well south of 30%. It’s doubtful different HTV cards could’ve achieved that. (And membership would’ve mutinied?) #farrer
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