Daivd Yuan

2.2K posts

Daivd Yuan

Daivd Yuan

@David20221027

Katılım Ekim 2022
297 Takip Edilen440 Takipçiler
Daivd Yuan
Daivd Yuan@David20221027·
the real problem is the fleet size. a 20 car fleet is good for nothing in terms of validating safety. let's be generous and say tesla has been running 20 cars on average since the beginning of year, and there will be no accident through the end of June. so 6 month accident free. 20 cars * 200 miles/day * 180 days = 720k miles that's only a little better than an average human driver. nothing to be excited about, or encouraging to the investors. it puzzles me why $TSLA is not putting out 600 cars in Auston, so the fleet is capable of validating safety profiles in a short period of time. something very easy to do, but they seem very adamant not to do it.
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Genma_Jp
Genma_Jp@nymbusjp·
The latest NHTSA report has just come in. Tesla reported one new incident this month. It occurred earlier in April, when the Robotaxi was stopped and rear-ended by a truck. Tesla is therefore not at fault. The previous report already listed two other incidents in March in which the Robotaxi was also stationary and rear-ended. As a result, there have been zero incidents since the beginning of February 2026 in which the Robotaxi was at fault. Let that sink in! Zero incidents where FSD was at fault for the last four months (June’s data will be released next month). I’ve attached a simplified view of the NHTSA data if you’d like more details. @elonmusk @aelluswamy Amazing job! You guys are cooking!
Genma_Jp tweet media
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Matt Smith
Matt Smith@nerdalert·
I agree with Amy’s second bullet that a merger creates more upside. I’m for a merger in theory. However the point Bradford is trying to make is that it matters a lot what the exchange ratio is. My strong sense is that Tesla is close to an inflection point in profitability, and if that happens I’d expect the stock to revalue upwards significantly. SpaceX is also undervalued according to our valuation model, but not nearly as much as Tesla. So my view is that a hypothetical combination of the two companies at their current valuations would be less favorable than waiting a bit for Tesla’s valuation to move. The main point Bradford and I want $TSLA shareholders to consider is that it makes a huge difference to their upside if $TSLA shareholders get ~40% of the combined entity (that’s what the math would be today) vs. waiting a bit and potentially having 60% or 75%+. This exchange ratio matters a lot, even if we think there is still upside at the current level. I mean just imagine if the companies had combined in 2021; Tesla shareholders would’ve had >90% of the combined company! It would clearly have been more advantageous for us to do a deal at those economics than at what could be contemplated today. My view is that Tesla has more significant near term valuation catalysts than SpaceX, and I strongly suspect Tesla investors could get a better deal by waiting for the relative valuations to adjust. I’ll happily stick up for current $TSLA holders by pointing this nuance out, even if it means being labeled as a FUD-spreader by some.
Amy@Amy787

I agree with Alexandra. Never go full Ross Gerber. Rebellionaire has lost the plot. IE They now create the FUD - rather dispel it. The inconvenient truth that contradicts Rebellionaire’s fear peddling: ♦️Volatility is the price of admission to investing in an Elon Musk company. You don’t get a participation trophy for it. ♦️A Merger creates vastly greater upside than the RoboTaxi alone, or Optimus. The three joint ventures are the hint of what is possible. A negotiated share exchange ratio would contain credit for Optimus and RoboTaxi projected revenues. You don’t “lose it”. And your investment dollars remain the same. ♦️Dilution IS coming either way. AI, compute, chip manufacturing require massive amounts of Capital. So choose your Dilution: Vote No on a merger (SpaceXAI just raised Capital on favorable terms) and the Tesla board likely immediately approves a share issuance - and they don’t need your vote for that. Dilution is not bad when it funds growth. Dilution preceded prior Tesla rerates because it funded the growth infrastructure. Prior Tesla capital raises 👇

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Daivd Yuan
Daivd Yuan@David20221027·
since the microsoft/openai breakup, microsoft is very far behind the rest of the frontier ai labs. I think satya is kind of forced to reposition microsoft back to the platform builder - the old company ethos. I think this posts made it clear that microsoft will be focusing on private platforms that hosts the models on-prem, so firms can run and build on their token-capital. this leverages what microsoft is already good at, the data pipeline, to enable firms for this envisioned future. will that work? nobody can tell right now. it is a war between data privacy and efficacy. big frontier ai labs certainly want the concertation to happen even faster as they are aggregating everybody's data and the models become ever more powerful. it is the scaling law. but there will be point of time, when every major vendor's model feels 'good enough'. at that time companies will feel hosting the model on-prem, plus their own data will outperform the most advanced commercial model, plus everybody else' data. outcome is no clear, but excitement is guaranteed.
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Daivd Yuan
Daivd Yuan@David20221027·
@Garron217 @tufpraise How low a IQ you need to have to not understand "unconditional" means no negotiations? You just kneel before your conquerors and accept what they ate about to do to you. Geez.
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Sean C
Sean C@Garron217·
@tufpraise Despite that - Germany and Japan both negotiated a surrender.
GIF
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Daivd Yuan
Daivd Yuan@David20221027·
@tetsuoai Although envy is a human vice with a history as long as our existence, this chorus of pure deranged puke of vile jealousy by some of political leaders does give a end of civilization vibe. Not gonna lie.
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tetsuo
tetsuo@tetsuoai·
History's first trillionaire is a guy who catches rockets out of the sky with chopsticks and beams internet to every dead zone on the planet. Same guy ships cars that drive themselves, humanoid robots for the factory floor, brain chips that let paralyzed people move a cursor with pure thought, and an AI running on a supercomputer his team stood up in months instead of years. And the people crashing out about his net worth are doing it on the app he owns. The same app governments spent years trying to censor. You cannot legislate a rocket into orbit.
Bernie Sanders@BernieSanders

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Daivd Yuan
Daivd Yuan@David20221027·
@SenWarren ... says a parasite who didnt' create any value for the society all her life.
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Elizabeth Warren
Elizabeth Warren@SenWarren·
Elon Musk just became the world's first trillionaire. The typical American household would have to work more than 11 MILLION years to make Elon Musk's level of wealth. We need a wealth tax.
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Daivd Yuan
Daivd Yuan@David20221027·
@nymbusjp A deal with no oversight is not a deal. It's a scam.
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Genma_Jp
Genma_Jp@nymbusjp·
The US does not want Iran to have nuclear weapons. Russia does not want Iran to have nuclear weapons. China does not want Iran to have nuclear weapons. Iran does not want to have nuclear weapons. But there is a war to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons!🤪
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Daivd Yuan
Daivd Yuan@David20221027·
@JOBhakdi 69 is a great number, but you can barely validate anything with it. They are one magnitude behind. Wake me up when they have 600.
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Jo Bhakdi
Jo Bhakdi@JOBhakdi·
Robotaxi tracker is broken. TxMCCS has the official numbers, and we are growing fast now in Texas
TeslaZoa@TeslaZoa

🚨 Tesla Texas Unsupervised Robotaxi Fleet Update According to TxMCCS, Tesla’s unsupervised Robotaxi fleet in Texas is growing quickly. May 29: 42 vehicles June 5: 51 vehicles June 9: 59 vehicles June 10: 69 vehicles Since May 29, the fleet has increased by 27 vehicles, or roughly 64%. Tesla’s Robotaxi expansion appears to be gaining momentum.

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Daivd Yuan
Daivd Yuan@David20221027·
@ARKInvest @CathieDWood Why weren't we seeing cybercabs joining the unsupervised fleet if we were at the 'all at once ' stage?
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ARK Invest
ARK Invest@ARKInvest·
You may have heard our research on Tesla Robotaxis... @CathieDWood just rode one through Austin. No driver. No safety monitor. Ride along with Cathie as she shares her thoughts from the passenger seat, including a newly discovered line item for our model.
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Daivd Yuan
Daivd Yuan@David20221027·
communication from Tesla on Robotaxi couldn't be worse even if they tried. a lot of promises, with no follow up, while Elon tweets about politics almost every single day, sometimes politics from another continent. it certainly feels like Tesla has abandoned the project, or at least put it on the back burner, so they can chase the new shining objects like terafab, or macrohard. as shareholders we desperately need tesla to clarify the status of the FSD/robotaxi project. 1. when we are going to see 500 unsupervised robotaxi in Austin? 2. when will cybercab join the unsupervised fleet? 3. what are the operational hurdles for robotaxi and what is the plan to address them? 4. what's tesla's metrics to measure 'comfortable and convenience' issues and what is the plan to improve them? as a shareholder we need tesla to give honest answers. at this point, more empty promised sound more of an insult than a placebo.
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Mike P
Mike P@mikepat711·
As a TSLA investor, I haven’t felt more clueless about what’s going on/what’s coming next than I do right now. FSD is amazing, but the goalpost with Robotaxi keeps getting moved and I have no clue why. No clue when “reasoning” is going to make parking so good that it’ll see spots I don’t see. No clue when half the US population will have Robotaxi access. No clue what the final piece of the puzzle was etc. There were 7 new Robotaxi cities on a list for 1H26 in the Q4 deck, which ended up disappearing from the Q1 deck, and with 3 weeks left in 1H26, only 2 of 7 have hit. No clue why. Def would be awesome to have something like this. Or at the very least, some new revised roadmap from Tesla AI similar to what we got a year or two ago. I still have conviction in the long-term story here, but it’s weird how sometimes they choose to communicate with investors, and other times they’re vague/leave us totally clueless. I can’t tell if they’re about to go gangbusters or something isn’t going as planned/we’re cooked for a few more years.
Nik Harris@nikkharris

hey @elonmusk what about holding an in-depth ai day for loyal fans/customers/investors? NDAs welcome

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Daivd Yuan
Daivd Yuan@David20221027·
FSD isn't all about safety. safety is the first step, but after safety is solved it is about alignment. FSD will remain supervised until alignment is solved. FSD can drive 1m miles before hitting any objects on the road, great, but one will never feel comfortable enough to sleep in the car until it is totally aligned with human. the ultimate test of alignment is how FSD approaches the trolley dilemma. and I don't see that happening until V15/AI5. and as a shareholder, I hope Elon and Tesla to prove me wrong.
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Genma_Jp
Genma_Jp@nymbusjp·
I can't agree more. I am also clueless. I understand that Tesla wants to be cautious. But we have no understanding at what's holding them back. We all agree safety is solved. Critical interventions for normal users are now super rare. And inside the geofence problably inexistent. NHTSA report 0 incident over the last months. Convenience issues Elon said? Well... you can have remote operators to handle this. If one operator needs to intervene every 5 rides (which would be a very high number already, I believe it would be less), one guy can easily handle 50 cars. Put 10 guys and you can handle 500 cars. So what's the problem here? @elonmusk @aelluswamy
Mike P@mikepat711

As a TSLA investor, I haven’t felt more clueless about what’s going on/what’s coming next than I do right now. FSD is amazing, but the goalpost with Robotaxi keeps getting moved and I have no clue why. No clue when “reasoning” is going to make parking so good that it’ll see spots I don’t see. No clue when half the US population will have Robotaxi access. No clue what the final piece of the puzzle was etc. There were 7 new Robotaxi cities on a list for 1H26 in the Q4 deck, which ended up disappearing from the Q1 deck, and with 3 weeks left in 1H26, only 2 of 7 have hit. No clue why. Def would be awesome to have something like this. Or at the very least, some new revised roadmap from Tesla AI similar to what we got a year or two ago. I still have conviction in the long-term story here, but it’s weird how sometimes they choose to communicate with investors, and other times they’re vague/leave us totally clueless. I can’t tell if they’re about to go gangbusters or something isn’t going as planned/we’re cooked for a few more years.

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Daivd Yuan
Daivd Yuan@David20221027·
the valuation sounds about right, but only when Elon and Tesla deliver on the promises. I'd suggest we refrain from repeating these promises until they deliver. after a full year of launch, we have about 20 pathetic unsupervised robotaxi running in Austin. at this particular point of time, Elon's 5T promise is very easy to be mistaken as a mockery on us shareholder.
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Eva McMillan ♥️
Eva McMillan ♥️@EvasTeslaSPlaid·
Elon Musk shares his thoughts on Tesla's @Tesla $TSLA valuation: "I agree with Ark Invest and Cathie Wood that autonomy, robotic taxis, makes Tesla about a $5 trillion company. The Optimus robot, I think, makes Tesla a $25 trillion company." 🎯
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Daivd Yuan
Daivd Yuan@David20221027·
pls do go. time to show some leadership. robotaxi business has been rudderless for a while. 20 cars in Austin after one whole year of launching is concerning, if not pathetic. pls also try out XPENG is VLA2 while you are at it. competitors are catching up, while $TSLA is idling.
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Daivd Yuan
Daivd Yuan@David20221027·
@tech01010x @nymbusjp the cybercabs on the parking lot is reported to have steering wheels installed. and you can have an exemption of FMVSS requirement for 2,500 vehicles. again FMVSS has nothing to do with these 40 cybercabs rotting on the parking lot.
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Bill Chin
Bill Chin@tech01010x·
@David20221027 @nymbusjp Waymo is using converted Jaguar i-Paces for their current livery service, which conform to FMVSS. They have not yet pressed their new vehicles into livery service, they are still R&D. Cybercabs with steering wheels are for R&D, and are not for livery service.
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Genma_Jp
Genma_Jp@nymbusjp·
Until the steering wheels are removed, this means nothing. These Cybercabs were used for data collection; maybe Tesla now has enough data and no longer needs those units for the time being. They need to park them somewhere, so they put them here. For all we know, these units may rot here for a while, and the Cybercabs that will go to the customer fleet may come directly from the factory. If Tesla intended to remove the steering wheels, they would bring them back to the factory.
Spencer@scotsrule08

So many Cybercabs in Dallas now ~40 in total spotted

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Daivd Yuan
Daivd Yuan@David20221027·
@tech01010x @nymbusjp FMVSS doesn't stop tesla or waymo or any other operator from doing driverless taxi service. you are misinformed. plus these cybercabs rotting on parking lots have steering wheels installed, so FMVSS is totally a non issue.
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Bill Chin
Bill Chin@tech01010x·
@David20221027 @nymbusjp Cybercabs cannot take paying fares until the FMVSS is altered to allow it. Therefore, they cannot be part of the livery service just yet, but they can and are being used as internal company vehicles for development and testing. There are some NHTSA FMVSS changes coming.
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Daivd Yuan
Daivd Yuan@David20221027·
none of them joined the fleet. there is a grand total of ZERO cybercab in the Dallas robotaxi fleet. Tesla is a great company, did great products and things in the past. that doesn't mean they can't make mistakes. and when they do, it is up to the shareholders to call them out, in good faith, so they can correct course. 'influencers' and retarded cult members of course don't do that as their job is garner attention and engagement.
Daivd Yuan tweet media
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Daivd Yuan
Daivd Yuan@David20221027·
this robotaxi program doesn't appear to be run be competent people. having 40 brand new cybercabs rotting on a parking lot is damaging to the confidence of the investors. it is an admission of defeat that TESLA can't make the software ready in time to make the cybercab useful. maybe all the competent people are gone from TESLA to work on something more exciting, or because the stock price has been stagnant for 5 years, they were not properly compensated. @Tesla_AI @elonmusk
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Daivd Yuan
Daivd Yuan@David20221027·
It's positive but nothing else matters other than the size of the unsupervised fleet. 20 cars is pathetic after one whole year. Be real. You can't validate anything with that fleet. Let's say you have a new version coming out and you want to make darn sure it's better than human drivers ie. It can do one accident per 1.2 mil miles. It will take 1.2mil / 200miles per day per car / 20 cars = 300 days to figure out! I will have to question @Tesla_AI @elonmusk , are you even serious about robotaxi business? What exactly do you think you are achieving with the 20 cars?
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Daivd Yuan
Daivd Yuan@David20221027·
@aelluswamy pls focus on growing unsupervised fleet instead. why it sits on 20 for a while? this bigger geofenced area does nothing but to make the waiting time even worse than it is already!
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Keşfet

@elonmusk @aelluswamy @nerdalert @Garron217 @tufpraise @tetsuoai @SenWarren @nymbusjp