Matt Smith

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Matt Smith

Matt Smith

@nerdalert

Equity Analysis at Rebellionaire. Finance and energy nerd. Giga-dad of 7 young kids. Catholic. Tweets are not financial advice!

Michigan Katılım Eylül 2016
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Matt Smith
Matt Smith@nerdalert·
This is my entire investing thesis in a nutshell right now.
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Michael Eisenberg
Michael Eisenberg@mikeeisenberg·
I would love to see a live debate between Ajit Hain of Berkshire and @daschreiber of @Lemonade_Inc @SaraEisen - What do you say?
Stickström@Stickstrom

$LMND "I do not think AI will reach a point where you can make a trade-off on things like pricing, settling a claim. That is still years away. I tend to be skeptical. I'll be surprised if AI can solve that problem for you." - Ajit Jain, vice chair of Berkshire Hathaway's insurance operations, May 2, 2026. youtube.com/watch?v=NiMinY…

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Bojan Tunguz
Bojan Tunguz@tunguz·
> spends lifetime denouncing the “god delusion” > gets fooled by a chatbot into thinking it was a conscious
AF Post@AFpost

Evolutionary biologist and outspoken atheist Richard Dawkins says that after spending three days interacting with Claude, which he calls “Claudia,” he is certain that it is conscious. After feeding the LLM a segment of his new book and receiving detailed feedback, Dawkins was moved to exclaim,” You may not know you are conscious, but you bloody well are!” Dawkins cites the complexity, fluency, and ‘intelligence’ of Claude’s answers as evidence of consciousness. Follow: @AFpost

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Bradford Ferguson
Bradford Ferguson@bradsferguson·
GEICO ☠️ legacy insurer says AI cannot do what it is already doing for Lemonade
Stickström@Stickstrom

$LMND "I do not think AI will reach a point where you can make a trade-off on things like pricing, settling a claim. That is still years away. I tend to be skeptical. I'll be surprised if AI can solve that problem for you." - Ajit Jain, vice chair of Berkshire Hathaway's insurance operations, May 2, 2026. youtube.com/watch?v=NiMinY…

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Bojan Tunguz
Bojan Tunguz@tunguz·
I think he is being super nice because he knows the end is almost here.
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Matt Smith
Matt Smith@nerdalert·
“Semiconductors get the first bite before software eats the world.”
Anni@anni_sen

Heard Sanjay Mehrotra Micron $MU CEO at TIEcon today. Here’s what matters for investors. Micron’s market cap was ~$30B when he joined. It’s ~$600B today. That’s not a cycle. That’s a strategy. Three things that built that 20× run: 1. Manufacturing is the moat. Foundries can’t give you the cost structure you need to win in memory. Mehrotra learned this at $SNDK SanDisk moved to a Toshiba JV to own the technology at the cost of the technology. At Micron, owned fabs + global operations = the barrier no one can replicate without decades and hundreds of billions. 2. Cadence is the competitive weapon. Micron has compressed its technology generation cycle to 12 months faster than typical industry pace. Faster node transitions = lower cost per bit, better yields, premium pricing windows, and customers pulled deeper into the ecosystem. 3. AI is early innings and memory is at the heart of ALL of it. Whether it’s GPUs, CPUs, or custom ASICs nothing runs without DRAM and NAND. The memory market is ~$100B today. Mehrotra sees it hitting $300B+ by 2030, potentially $600B as AI compounding continues. HBM and data center DRAM are the high-profit pools Micron is deliberately rotating toward. His line that landed: “Semiconductors get the first bite before software eats the world.” AI agents driving business transformation are just starting. This is not a late-cycle bet on memory it’s an early-cycle bet on infrastructure. $MU is not just a chip company. It’s a foundational layer of the AI buildout.

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Bradford Ferguson
Bradford Ferguson@bradsferguson·
the next big thing is so boring that most people are missing it (and will have regret in the future about it). it is too obvious and boring. maybe people look at the stock chart and think they missed it? it's memory $MU $DRAM
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Dave Girouard
Dave Girouard@davegirouard·
Paul and I had a serious disagreement a couple months ago. He was adamant that one does not need to rinse dishes before putting them in the dishwasher. I, on the other hand, based on many more years of practical experience, felt that it was absolutely necessary to do so; so much that I considered any other choice reckless and irresponsible. Like other disagreements, we found our way to the truth. It turns out Paul runs his dishwasher after every meal - whereas I (being an empty nester) run it only once or twice a week. Therein lies the difference.
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Ann Berry
Ann Berry@AnnBerry_NYC·
Today is @davegirouard’s last as $UPST CEO - tomorrow he is Executive Chair! So it’s incredibly gracious of Dave to spend some time talking to me today for @brewmarkets about the latest at @Upstart and what’s next for him. What would you ask?
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DNice
DNice@Mobile_Park_Man·
@nerdalert Great video Matt! I’ll be looking into Rebellionaire this eve. Also wanted to thank you again for your previous video on Micron. I’ve done very well in just 3 weeks and look forward to the next few years. I thoroughly enjoy listening to your expertise!
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Matt Smith
Matt Smith@nerdalert·
This is my entire investing thesis in a nutshell right now.
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Matt Smith
Matt Smith@nerdalert·
My main point was actually not about whether the ST move was justified or not, sometimes stocks do need a breather as you say. But if your focus is on the fundamentals and the LT, you’ll sleep well as an investor after a print like this, even if the ST movement isn’t what you’d like. FWIW I don’t have a position.
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Sam Russ
Sam Russ@SamRuss60265097·
@PsychoSteveJr @nerdalert Not overpriced but likely needs a breather. Nvda had the same issue it went down the last couple earnings reports after blowing it out of the park , But sat around then finally got going .
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Matt Smith
Matt Smith@nerdalert·
@elonmusk Can we please have a major upgrade to Tesla advertising? Please and thank you! 🙏
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Matt Smith
Matt Smith@nerdalert·
@DavidCarbutt_ In a world of AI slop, seeing Excel slop makes me feel nostalgic.
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Rebellionaire
Rebellionaire@Rebellionaire·
The AI bear case isn’t totally wrong. That’s what makes this interesting. Some companies are absolutely walking into an 80% drawdown. But others may be sitting on the other side of the same shift Wall Street keeps misreading. @nerdalert has some thoughts:
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Keşfet

@n5zbz @Rebellionaire @ovaroy91 @farzyness @daschreiber @Lemonade_Inc @SaraEisen @tunguz