David Polaski

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David Polaski

David Polaski

@DavidPolaski

Indiana, born and raised. Storyteller, finder and reader. Grown by @bsudailynews and made by @TheStarPress.

South Bend, IN Katılım Kasım 2011
422 Takip Edilen1.5K Takipçiler
David Polaski
David Polaski@DavidPolaski·
@wiscogressive @ZacharyDonnini @VoteHub @allsofakehappy My guess is it’s because Sherrod is uniquely popular in Ohio, him winning there doesn’t necessarily translate to other races. But that being said, it’s still a red enough state that if he does win, there’s a high likelihood that others will.
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Zachary Donnini
Zachary Donnini@ZacharyDonnini·
Good morning — I wanted to do a Q&A on VoteHub forecast conditional probabilities. You can ask things like: “If Republicans win TX Senate, what are their odds of control?” or “If Dems win CO-04, what’s the chance they win ME-02?” Reply in the next few hours and I’ll answer.
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David Polaski
David Polaski@DavidPolaski·
@jaketropolis @StatisticUrban If he’s smart, he’ll wait until 2032. 2028 may wind up being a lost cause election for the GOP like 2008 was if Trump is unpopular enough. Better to wait until 2032 when he can run against a Democratic incumbent than to try and defend the last 4 years of Trumpism.
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Jaketropolis
Jaketropolis@jaketropolis·
@StatisticUrban Rubio's star is rising. He's the only person who (currently) leaves Trumpism better off than when he started. Chiang will guide him to the Presidency.
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Hunter📈🌈📊
Hunter📈🌈📊@StatisticUrban·
Everywhere you look, you can see signs of Trumpism dying. He’s a lame duck with -20 approvals and a worsening economy. The groups are very slowly beginning to splinter. I don’t know what comes next, after 2028. Plausibly, it’ll be worse. But Trumpism is ending.
Patrick T. Brown@PTBwrites

“Trump is the problem. The president is the problem,” Marjorie Dannenfelser, the influential president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, said in an interview. wsj.com/politics/polic…

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The Salty Dog Galveston
The Salty Dog Galveston@SaltyDGalveston·
The Houston Zoo releasing a rehabilitated sea turtle in Galveston.
The Salty Dog Galveston tweet media
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David Polaski
David Polaski@DavidPolaski·
@TheBoyOr8or It’s like trying to claim Manchin could have won in 2024 because he won in 2018.
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David Polaski
David Polaski@DavidPolaski·
@TheBoyOr8or It’s such a lame, boring argument too. There’s nothing similar between 2020 and 26. Collins is significantly weaker, Platner is much stronger than Gideon, the environment is WAY bluer, there’s no Trump at the top of the ticket to help boost GOP turnout.
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William Jennings Bryan
William Jennings Bryan@TheBoyOr8or·
"Susan Collins won by 8% in 2020!" No she didn't, she narrowly got over 50% so preferential votes weren't counted. If she'd gotten 1% less she would've lost. She's going to lose in November.
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David Polaski
David Polaski@DavidPolaski·
@BrettKollmann Watching it live, awful shot selection. They started just chucking deep three’s.
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David Polaski
David Polaski@DavidPolaski·
@kkondik Texas probably only ends up being +2 or 3, with how Latino’s have shifted the past couple years.
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David Polaski
David Polaski@DavidPolaski·
@walkeri141 Thy absolutely regret it. To be fair, in the immediate aftermath of the 2025 gubernatorial and state house bloodbath, it didn’t look like it could possibly be competitive. I’m not surprised they didn’t push harder until the last month or so.
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Isaiah Walker
Isaiah Walker@walkeri141·
Fairfax slowly starting to come in and that should close the margin for the Yes side This is gonna end relatively close tho imo. The GOP has to regret not seriously spending more earlier to contest this. It was a defeatable measure imo, and Yes didn't run that great a campaign
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David Polaski
David Polaski@DavidPolaski·
@umichvoter Yeah, the GOP actually did a pretty good job turning out their voters. Their problem is that VA has gotten blue enough that if the Dems turn out their voters, the GOP won’t overcome them.
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umichvoter
umichvoter@umichvoter·
NYT thinks this is gonna be a YES +3 affair stronger turnout in NO counties
umichvoter tweet media
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umichvoter
umichvoter@umichvoter·
solid
umichvoter tweet media
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David Polaski
David Polaski@DavidPolaski·
@SethAbrams1 @DjsokeSpeaking Solid for Yes. Feels like it’ll be reasonably close, but not a nailbiter, I’m guessing 5-6 based on NOVA turning it up in the afternoon.
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Dj
Dj@DjsokeSpeaking·
Here's the NoVa localities and their % of TOTAL 2025 vote they're sitting at as of last update, including early votes (NOT same-time eday comparisons) Between 2 and 5 hours of voting left + late mail and provisionals to add on to these %s
Dj tweet media
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David Polaski
David Polaski@DavidPolaski·
@JamesAbrenio Yeah, the “Not great to either side” is weird when everything else listed in the tweet seems to indicate good things for the Yes side.
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David Polaski
David Polaski@DavidPolaski·
@samshirazim I mean, yeah, that’s not unexpected, we’ve known that would be the case for weeks. It’s just a matter of if that can overcome Virginia’s blue lean and the national environment, which is an uphill battle.
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Sam Shirazi
Sam Shirazi@samshirazim·
Early turnout reports suggests better turnout in red areas in Virginia compared to 2025 Keep in mind 2025 was best performance Dems have gotten in a long while in Virginia But another indication this is going to be close election We’ll see if it will be enough for No
Zachary Donnini@ZacharyDonnini

Early ED turnout in Virginia is showing concerning signs for Dems. Several key blue areas (Fredericksburg, Fairfax, Petersburg, and Falls Church) are way behind their 2025 levels. Loudoun and PWC are holding up slightly better, but still not great. Red counties solid.

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David Polaski
David Polaski@DavidPolaski·
@TheANRP @ChazNuttycombe Yeah, that doesn’t seem to add up. 2 percent isn’t bad at all considering how strong the county was for Dems last year.
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David Polaski
David Polaski@DavidPolaski·
@USA_Polling Not to mention, the T+5 will likely be +3. They spread themselves way too thin.
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Chiraq💸 🇺🇸
Chiraq💸 🇺🇸@ChicagosLoneCon·
How would you react if you see this on election night?
Chiraq💸 🇺🇸 tweet media
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David Polaski
David Polaski@DavidPolaski·
@PatomUng @samshirazim @TylerDinucci Yep. Polls have consistently underestimated democrats in nearly every election for the past year. I don’t think it passes by Spanberger margins, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up being 10 or so.
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Sam Shirazi
Sam Shirazi@samshirazim·
Tough numbers for President Trump in new CBS poll 2/3 disapproval on economy and inflation are particularly challenging Honestly surprising redistricting referendum is somewhat competitive National environment even worse for Virginia GOP than last November
Sam Shirazi tweet media
CBS News Poll@CBSNewsPoll

*NEW* CBS News Poll: Few see U.S. goals being met in Iran yet; Americans voice worry, stress Gas prices put pressure on pocketbooks - and Pres. Trump's ratings tinyurl.com/5n8k7xjt

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David Polaski
David Polaski@DavidPolaski·
@aha272727 @adamscochran He doesn’t intend to attack them, it’s a ploy to try and get Iran to back down. Then when they call his bluff, he says something like “I’M GRANTING IRAN A 10 DAY EXTENSION, GREAT PROGRESS BEING MADE!” even though it isn’t, and we do this all again in 10 days.
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Keşfet

@wiscogressive @ZacharyDonnini @VoteHub @allsofakehappy @jaketropolis @StatisticUrban @SaltyDGalveston @TheBoyOr8or