DeBushie

451 posts

DeBushie

DeBushie

@DeBushie

Katılım Temmuz 2012
50 Takip Edilen6 Takipçiler
DeBushie
DeBushie@DeBushie·
@GatorCosmist @squatsons Won't eliminate anything, Ukr can have 600k troops and largely all of the land it currently holds. It's basically just a prolonged ceasefire that they're trying to offer Russia. They already know Donbass was going to be lost within 6 months or so anyway (a long with a ton more).
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Space respecter
Space respecter@GatorCosmist·
@DeBushie @squatsons To be fair, that war is probably coming anyway, but if Russia eliminates Ukrainian manpower and takes whatever strategic assets and land there that they need, they will enter it in much more advantageous position.
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ayden
ayden@squatsons·
The new peace plan for Ukraine is rushed and sloppy like everything else this administration has done. It hits key Russian issues (unacceptable for the current regime) and basically backtracks the public position of the U.S. which became hostile against Russia after the Putin-Trump Alaska ordeal played out to no avail. First and foremost neither side should trust the U.S. here. The flip flopping won’t end and by next week Ukraine could be poised to retake Crimea… and maybe even more. So for the Russians is a trap and for the Ukrainians it’s a bluff. The second a ceasefire is implemented the west will begin stabilizing the Ukrainian army, building defenses and pumping in weapons with European forces acting as a trip wire that the U.S. “can’t control”. We’ll see explanations for the agreement breaking actions with statements like “Europe is making these decisions, not the U.S.” The Ukrainians are better holding out for a narrative switch and the Russians are better off ending this with the army.
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DeBushie
DeBushie@DeBushie·
@GatorCosmist @squatsons There's no amount of diplomacy that stops US/EU restarting the war in 4-6 years unless Russia takes a huge portion of the country and landlocks Ukraine.
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Space respecter
Space respecter@GatorCosmist·
Putin said "root causes" like a million times already. If the West wants to settle root causes via diplomacy, great! If the West wants to settle root causes via military solution, that works for him too. Of course Putin would prefer diplomacy, as any rational person would. But unfortunately, root causes are unlikely to be resolved diplomatically.
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DeBushie
DeBushie@DeBushie·
@RWApodcast What do you make of indications that Putin is seemingly ok with a peace plan? I don't see how Russia can be confident any agreement solves anything until RU absolutely decimates the Ukranian army, and take much more land so that Ukraine controls much less population than current.
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Russians With Attitude
Russians With Attitude@RWApodcast·
The main problem with these "peace plans" is that nothing prevents Ukraine from simply disregarding all the conditions As long as it exists in its current form, it is incapable of making or upholding agreements Any deal would be used as a respite, only to repeat the same cycle later with stronger EU backing
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Russians With Attitude
Russians With Attitude@RWApodcast·
Trump wants to "solve the ninth war", which is why he reactivated the NABU leverage in Ukraine against Zelensky and threatened secondary sanctions on Russia's trading partners But the EU will continue militarizing, and I believe they are planning for a war with Russia by 2028 So either Trump gets his achievement (unlikely) and a much larger war resumes in 2028, or the whole Whitkoff–Dmitriev thing falls apart again and the war continues as usual But in either case, it will be fought until its military conclusion. Make no mistake about it
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DeBushie
DeBushie@DeBushie·
@squatsons Are you winding down the YouTube map update videos? Don't believe has been one in October.
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ayden
ayden@squatsons·
They’re everywhere but have no positions, they enter cities without gear and take those cities from supplied defenders, they are even said to have the ability to teleport. The Russians are…. the most interesting army in the world.
GIF
ayden@squatsons

Deep state explanation for their massive grey zone on the northern flank of Siversk. “Expansion of the gray zone in the Serebrianka area This is one of the largest gray zone areas on the front line, characterized by constant enemy pressure without specific consolidation or control of the territory. The enemy is detected literally throughout the gray zone, where they are being targeted. In particular, the Russians have been and continue to push from the Hryhorivka side along the Siverskyi Donets through Serebrianka and all the way to Dronivka. There are also constant assault actions by small infantry groups southward between Serebrianka and Siversk, sometimes involving motorcycles. The situation worsened with the loss of the Serebrianka forestry, where the enemy also uses the terrain to break through, especially in the Serebrianka area. According to the fighters, from their observations, the enemy does not aim to capture specific positions or settlements but simply tries to advance as far as possible into the territory, accumulate there, and move further. There is no purposeful consolidation in Serebrianka, where they even pass by the settlement or positions on motorcycles southward. Ukrainian fighters also help shorten the enemy's lifespan by constantly hunting and destroying them immediately upon detection. We have mentioned pilots on this section more than once, and they deserve credit for holding back the enemy, as there is a huge shortage of personnel to deploy and properly hold positions. Therefore, drone operators need to monitor the situation 24/7 and make efforts to prevent the enemy from accumulating. Unfortunately, the numerical superiority shows again, and for several days in a row, the Russians have been detected as far as Dronivka, where a gray zone has also appeared. A strange enemy tactic that does not involve consolidation on the ground but rather "stupid" rushing deep inside, but this is the reality, and on the other hand, it provides an opportunity to simply kill the enemy who senselessly rushes at the SOU fighters' positions.”

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DeBushie
DeBushie@DeBushie·
@squatsons Can you explain what you mean by the last sentence? I don't think Russia giving up any land in the 4 oblasts is on the table. The question is if they get just what they currently control as part of the deal, or the parts that Ukraine currently controls too?
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ayden
ayden@squatsons·
Good to see we can always count on Zelensky. I’ve long said that negotiations are a pipe dream and I’m likely going to double down on that now. Ukraine, the U.S, Europe and most importantly Russia all have separate interests and needs when it comes to how the war ends. The U.S. needs the pause to rearm Ukraine and buy time for larger Geo-Strategic plans. Europe faces the worst economic a sphere of influence loss out of anyone due to their proximity to the conflict as well as the loss of cheap Russian energy. If Europe in its current structure wants to survive they will need a strong deal on Ukraine or a continuation of the war. A rump Ukraine will just be a financial burden on the EU for decades to come. Ukraine, but more specifically Zelensky is currently staring down the barrel in of a shotgun and the only thing preventing the hammer from falling is the continuation of this war. Elections come when peace comes and Z is on the heat seat. Russia is in a more flexible situation although if the WSJ article is true (again doubt it) then it will likely be considered a defeat unless the back end agreements are written in stone and come with unbelievable economic benefits. The loss of territory currently held in the 4 oblasts annexed would be significant and detrimental to Russias future.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський@ZelenskyyUa

The answer to the Ukrainian territorial question already is in the Constitution of Ukraine. No one will deviate from this—and no one will be able to. Ukrainians will not gift their land to the occupier.

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DeBushie
DeBushie@DeBushie·
@RWApodcast Awful. May she rest in peace. How sure are you that Russia won't accept a deal that doesn't include Odessa? Seems like that would require unconditional surrender, Ukraine would lose access to the sea. Lots of meat Ukraine can keep throwing to keep the war going for a while...
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Collin Slattery
Collin Slattery@CJSlattery·
I was just told by a rep at Google that ALL Ads accounts must migrate away from CC payment before August 1st or they will be shut off. I was under the impression this only applied to some accounts. Lots of clients telling me they've seen nothing. Clarity @adsliaison ?
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DeBushie
DeBushie@DeBushie·
@squatsons I don't understand though, why would Russia need to divert if they have plenty of reserves?
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ayden
ayden@squatsons·
Its true, unfortunately the Russians have ample mobile reserved and it hasn't slowed progress in the east. also let me remind you that the Ukrainians sent even more troops to Sumy so it just means Ukraine is now taking offensive losses while the Russians in the east enjoy assaulting under less artillery fire and fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Faytuks News@Faytuks

Russia appears to have diverted several thousand troops from occupied Ukrainian territory to counter the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk oblast, two senior US officials told CNN.

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DeBushie
DeBushie@DeBushie·
@squatsons @JobaTheGlazed It's not about today's attacks. Would you not agree that the cost of victory is far too high if this war just got them the 4 territories? Nato rearms them, and a new war in 10 years. Minsk 3.0 I'm pro-Russian btw.
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ayden
ayden@squatsons·
Where are the Ukrainian reserves to prevent the Russians from reaching the southern logistical hub for the AFU in southern Donetsk?
ayden tweet media
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DeBushie
DeBushie@DeBushie·
@squatsons @JobaTheGlazed He does have a point though. If at the end of the war Russia doesn't end up with much more territory than their peace proposal from last month (much more of the east + Odessa), then it's gonna be a pretty pyrrhic victory.
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ayden
ayden@squatsons·
@JobaTheGlazed silent? I've posted about it numerous times lol
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ayden
ayden@squatsons·
Not a good sign
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DeBushie
DeBushie@DeBushie·
@Gugo907 Expecting them to get to $8B any week now, at which point they start returning 75% of the FCF (vs 50% now). I imagine a small chunk goes to dividends and a large chunk goes to more buybacks. Dividend is a bit of joke at the moment, so very curious to see if they 2 to 3x it.
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Gurgen Ayvazyan
Gurgen Ayvazyan@Gugo907·
$CVE did an absolute monster buyback in February, buying back ~14.2m shares, leaving ~106m shares under current NCIB expiring on Nov 8/22. If they want to fully complete the NCIB in time then $CVE has to buy ~13.4m shares a month for the next 8m. They have the cash!!!!
Gurgen Ayvazyan tweet media
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DeBushie
DeBushie@DeBushie·
@sohaibab9 Would urge we think a bit more critically than to blame it on Russia. Maybe the US & allies are not as honest as they claim? Remember WMD claims in Iraq? China genocide of millions of Uighurs? Why zero sanctions on China from EU/USA, if we're all about freedom & reicheousness?
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Sohaib Abbas
Sohaib Abbas@sohaibab9·
Chill Putin - call it off plz, as much as higher prizes are good for #COM just not at the expense of human lives & suffering !!!
Sohaib Abbas tweet media
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DeBushie
DeBushie@DeBushie·
@Gugo907 @Andys05657228 @garquake I guess if depends on how you interpret the ~20M they bought in Dec. I would agree that paying for an acquisition in part with 15.2M shares and then buying back 19.2M is not quite the same thing as simply buying back 19.2M. Over and above that, I guess we'll see month by month.
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DeBushie
DeBushie@DeBushie·
@Gugo907 @Andys05657228 @garquake And hopefully they have been feverishly pouring money into buybacks as well, day after day. From that perspective, I almost prefer that the stock isn't fairly valued.
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Gurgen Ayvazyan
Gurgen Ayvazyan@Gugo907·
@Andys05657228 @garquake Management has been accumulating a lot of shares in recent months, so hopefully they will come up with something big during Q4 earrnings.
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DeBushie
DeBushie@DeBushie·
@sohaibab9 Oh man, for a second there I thought I read short ARC. An uncomfortable few seconds haha
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