Deatac

@TMFScottP probably rents will go up because they usually do, probably prices will go down because of interest rates, immigration and general unaffordabilty issues, and both will be blamed on this budget by whoever it suits to lay blame, even though the actual effect will be minimal

A reminder: If rental stock is decreased by an investor selling, they must be selling to a new owner-occupier. That new owner-occupier is either a current renter or would be. So... rental stock declines at the same rate as rental demand. Supply doesn't 'disappear'!

@MattBrady1980 @Hareeba @J_Walter23 can't happen, but there could be tiered taxes applied to yearling sales from young sires to make it less attractive, while also helping fund the industry

@Hareeba @J_Walter23 That would actually be a great idea… 👍

BEIWACHT likely races on. But the last we have seen of TENTYRIS and OBSERVER on the track Sad day. We need all the quality we can have racing. But thats the game! Hope they do special things in the barn

@blake_shinn I think it might be the only way to save the horse racing ecosystem.....however it would require a monumental amount of rationalisation and unification of governing bodies, rating systems, race scheduling, probably totes and race clubs and more, politically not going to happen!

‘Must Go’ starts the prep at 81 and wins yesterday rated 61, after his rating was lowered, providing a valuable win for his connections . Can someone explain why Australia doesn’t copy the Hong Kong model? #baffling

@john_c0nner @bowtiedstocks @ozols_aldis But if you want to live in a 2 million dollar house, you can decide whether to buy it or rent it.

@bowtiedstocks @ozols_aldis You don’t buy a 2 million house with a 20% deposit to rent out.

Brisbane house sale price: $2m Rental income per week this house would generate: $1,200 Rent per year: $62,400 Mortgage interest per year (assume 80% LVR): $2m x 80% x 6.5% = $104,000 Maintenance cost for owning per year: $20,000 The cost of owning this $2m house is precisely double the cost of renting it - and that’s after you dump down your equity for the 20% deposit And that assumes no sunk stamp duty cost on purchase as well Propadee-nomics

@joshem27 @ShowerCapAM @bowtiedstocks 50k for a roof is 2k per year, now add flooring, painting, kitchens/bathrooms,etc which all need to be replaced far more regularly than every 25 years to maintain desirability, and 1% becomes low

@ShowerCapAM @bowtiedstocks You’re not replacing the roof & hot water system yearly A roof is like a once every 25 year expense ffs 😂🫵

@bowtiedstocks it seems people don't understand the nuance that two things can be true at the same time....owning property is a good idea, but buying at today's price is very likely a poor investment

@RacingPedigrees @todd_blum7 I travel all over to see my horses race, but a horse can't even pay its way running places in the city with every horse I've seen costing $60k+ pa, I feel the system is broken and is very vulnerable to an economic downturn

@todd_blum7 I think some only want city horses, I enjoy them running anywhere!

recent trainer email which said "understandably" some owners want out... said horse has won 3 of 13; 3 runs this prep for 2 placings and one disappointment; that sort of impatience never even crossed my mind!

@bowtiedstocks @hamptonism hearing noticeable dropoff in enquiry with the unexpected rate increases, prices in SE Qld are impossible to justify and the optimal time to sell is passing

@DeatacD @hamptonism What are you seeing at the moment ?

Australians only, thoughts on this?

@bowtiedstocks @hamptonism it's starting to look shaky already, the property market moves in slow motion but all the interest rate and petrol talk is starting to move the needle

@hamptonism Propadee bubble will go pop in the next decade Besides this and the flow on consequences, it’s not the worst place to live and will remain that way

@TrevDonaldson results were looking shaky when I checked early on...do you think this is this related to the quality/number of stock on offer, or recent changes in general economic conditions?

MM - arrive 30 minutes before the auction - “you choose any car park tgat you want” Nobody here - 20 sec vid of the crowd It’s going to be tough for the vendors.

@bruceaslade @HillnDaleFarm @TaylorMadeSales @keeneland ....and as with buying lots of things like property or even thoroughbred yearlings, you probably get better value the further up the value chain you go, because it becomes more niche product with fewer potential buyers in competition.

@bruceaslade @HillnDaleFarm @TaylorMadeSales @keeneland Given that owners of racing stock consistently lose vast amounts of money, yet major breeding operations often race horses too, I'm assuming the value of standing sires is underappreciated, otherwise they'd go out of business very quickly.....

How can any thoroughbred be worth $150m? A couple of weeks ago @HillnDaleFarm John Sikura paid $3m for a 1/50th share in @TaylorMadeSales exciting young proven sire NOT THIS TIME. The public sale of the share at @keeneland values NOT THIS Time at a cool $150m. Stallion equity is not well understood in the bloodstock market, from my experience. I think it can play an integral role in any bloodstock portfolio. As such, I thought I would do a rough breakdown to show just how Mr. Sikura may have worked out his value for a share in Not This Time. Below is a video to talk you through the numbers. Questions welcomed. #ThoroughbredBusiness

@hmmm1nteresting @bowtiedstocks so many stories...it's a highly underappreciated stimulant of the economy!

@bowtiedstocks Every Australian has a NDIS rort story

I’m reading the most unbelievable stories of outright NDIS rorting 😫 Hundreds of these are flooding in…

@PeterLawrence18 Well my horse was scratched because the risk of injury was too high and the track was so fast it was advantageous to lead, so smaller fields with less winning chances might make the favourite a better bet, but doesn't sound like a good long term strategy

I know there are multiple issues to take into account, but a good friend of mine often poses the question, “what would you do if you owned the business?” Qld racing a fascinating case in point. Last Sat at EF, 6 outright favs won, 3 others were 6.50 or less and one winner at 11.0. A great set of results for punters, who fund the industry and a great result for turnover as winners reinvest. The track was a FIRM 2, or FAST in the old language. If I owned this business I would want to maximise turnover and give the customers what they want. A WIN-WIN. However, the suppliers, the trainers hate firm ground and Racing QLD bows to their demands all the time. Case in point Doomben Sat, watered to be SOFT 5 despite terrible weather forecast Fri and Sat. It seems to me the tail wags the dog.

@TMFScottP @mwfowlie I'm not following exactly what he said, but I feel like every valuable employee I've ever met behaves this way? Thousands, if not millions of similar decisions are made on a daily basis all over the world, aren't they?

@mwfowlie He threatened to leave unless he got $1T. I mean, call it what you want, but that's a pretty ordinary way to behave.

This will annoy the Elon fanboys but so be it. This pay package is obscene and out of all proportion. For him to essentially blackmail shareholders - give me the money or I might not be as committed - says a lot... And none of it good.

@TMFScottP @RemingtonS49278 Elasticity reduced but not eliminated. I certainly believe that the amount of time people spend crawling through traffic is grossly unproductive and should be economically disincentivised more than it currently is. We don't need to disincentivise people going to parks or doctors.

@RemingtonS49278 A little, yes. But if the boss wants me in the office at 8.30am, the elasticity breaks down. Again, I understand the economics of demand smoothing. I'm just not sure whether it should apply to (some) public goods, particularly if its income-agnostic.

I'm not strongly against a road user charge in itself. I *am* against the lazy thinking that the eventual diminution of fuel excise can only be replaced by another charge on driving. We can raise revenue in many, many different ways. Some new thinking would be nice.

@libertylachlan @Joel_Huz @DrCameronMurray ...and the best way to do that is probably to disband it and start from scratch....

@Joel_Huz @DrCameronMurray The scope of the NDIS is far too broad. Far too many people meet the eligibility requirements and it funds far too much support that isn't needed. It is wildly unsustainable and needs to be pared way back if we want to keep it.

I suspect that disbanding institutions is often the only way to create genuine change. But when you really think about it, which ones could you disband tomorrow and be better off (allowing for some adjustment costs)? The NDIS and superannuation are my contenders

@Bradmac120970 @NoverreMan "Playing it safe, go with the herd" plays a part, but I think the game is mainly about finding owners to part with their cash to keep the horses turning over, and a big name trainer is requirement number one for selling a six figure plus horse

@NoverreMan Syndicators are marketing/selling shares off the big names of trainers…not necessarily the right trainers…

Assuming (and it’s a bit of a leap on the evidence but they would have advantages of scale) that the mega stables are better trainers, how much better would they have to be so that it’s better to be one of 400 there rather than one of 80 odd with a normal top stable?

@TrevDonaldson pretty scary, out of 150 horses maybe 6 or 8 success stories so far, and basically no chance of even recovering costs from prizemoney, 10's of millions torched in just a small segment of the market

Review of NZB Karaka – sold in the range $201k to $350k   Data on the post/link below [click on image].   Best results in the $201-$275k range, in particular 5yo and 4yo, however the overall summary looks more bleak than the previous $131-200k review. progenyconsulting.net/post/nzb-karak…

@TrevDonaldson If you take out the over earning HK horses, you really are looking at sub 5% chance of getting your money back on a horse and praying to hit that 1 in 100 Stefi Magnetica or MM winner.....but you are definitely right it seems you don't get a lot more result for paying over $200k

Yearling Sales: “Magic Millions - GC Jan” ♦️ price range: $131k - $200k ♦️ This set of data contains ▪️2yo and 3yo ▪️Summary page - comparing to highest priced MM yearlings Set 1 of 2 for MM Sale