Fernando Pertini

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Fernando Pertini

Fernando Pertini

@DecodeMarkets

Global macro investor. 30+ years across cycles. PM at DecodeMarkets AMC

🇦🇷 🇨🇷 🇺🇸 🇨🇭 🇦🇪 Katılım Nisan 2014
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Fernando Pertini
Fernando Pertini@DecodeMarkets·
3 Megatrends Lining Up for an $ETH Comeback in 2026 (Chart from @fundstrat – $BMNR, HK - Feb 2026) The slide is a reality check on scale: Gold ~ $41T network value Bitcoin ~ $1.3T Ethereum ~ $0.2T Crypto is still tiny versus legacy stores of value, and that’s exactly why the upside is asymmetrical if the use-case is real. My bullish take: Ethereum has the ultimate product–market fit for 3 mega-trends 1) Wall Street tokenization Wall Street isn’t adopting “crypto” It’s adopting speed + settlement + programmability Stablecoins were the first proof. Tokenized T-bills, funds, collateral and settlement rails are the next wave, and ETH is the dominant base layer / ecosystem for that stack. 2) AI + agentic AI Agents need an economic layer: payments, verification, privacy, uptime. Ethereum has spent years building exactly that direction (ZK/privacy tooling, composability, reliability). AI doesn’t just consume compute, it creates machine-to-machine commerce that needs a neutral settlement layer. Vitalik’s framework on ETH + AI (worth reading): lnkd.in/d3sXGSHa 3) Creator economy: Brands become financial assets Creators are turning into enterprises. Ownership, access, loyalty, monetization... all become programmable. This is where “community” stops being a buzzword and starts being a balance sheet Bottom line Despite the noise, I still believe $ETH is setting up one of the strongest comeback stories of 2026. Not because it’s “small”, but because it’s where three compounding demand drivers want to live Do your DD... if I’m right (and I’m clearly not alone), this is a multi-fold in front of us
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Fernando Pertini
Fernando Pertini@DecodeMarkets·
Days like this are exactly why I own Studsvik AB, trading in Sweden 🇸🇪 which corrected too The market still sees a 75-year-old Swedish nuclear services company. What I see is a strategic nuclear infrastructure platform sitting at the intersection of 1) SMRs 2) licensing 3) fuel & materials testing 4) waste handling 5) reactor lifetime extensions and 6) the coming AI-driven power demand shock. The shareholder base and board are also evolving fast with more capital markets experience, nuclear expertise and long-term strategic alignment entering the story. And the Kärnfull Next acquisition was another important signal: Studsvik is no longer just servicing the nuclear ecosystem. It is positioning itself closer to the actual buildout of next-generation nuclear in Sweden and beyond. The world suddenly wants to build nuclear again. But nuclear is not software. It needs ecosystems, regulatory trust, hot cells, engineering know-how and decades of embedded relationships. That is where Studsvik lives. And has “just” $300m market cap Today the stock is down 6%. The thesis is not. Is it a 10x? Probably NFA. Just do your DD
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Chris Ray
Chris Ray@itschrisray·
Many uranium/nuclear energy stocks are now approaching 8-10 month lows. The selloff in this sector continues despite positive sentiment coming from the White House. Can’t help but think we’re approaching a bottom in this sector. Very interested, but not sure how to play it. 🤔
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Fernando Pertini
Fernando Pertini@DecodeMarkets·
If the CLARITY Act gets approved as a bipartisan deal, the game changes. 60 votes are needed If it gets done you will need to do your DD on the potential winners or get left behind by your next door neighbor. Things are changing very fast in this AI world. And the USA 🇺🇸 clearly wants to take the lead. Most people still think crypto is about coins. They are missing where the world is going. It is about infrastructure. AI. Identity. Payments. Stablecoins. Tokenization. Some people understood it early and helped others see where this was going. @ethereumJoseph @MarkYusko @fundstrat @ARKInvest
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Fernando Pertini
Fernando Pertini@DecodeMarkets·
The Forbes piece from January is aging very well. At the time, most people still thought “AI social network” meant just another app. They missed the real direction: AI-generated internet → explosion of bots/fakes → need for Proof of Human. That changes everything. If OpenAI eventually integrates identity verification into a social layer -whether through World, biometrics, FaceID-like systems or wallet-based reputation- the internet starts shifting from: “Who creates the best content?” to “Who is actually human?” And that is where the World ecosystem becomes strategic. Not because of the orb itself. But because identity, verification and trusted human presence become infrastructure. Now connect the dots: 1) Sam Altman co-founded World. 2) OpenAI is reportedly exploring a social network. 3) The internet is increasingly flooded with AI-generated noise. 4) Advertisers, creators, payments, dating, gaming and even governments will eventually require trusted identity layers. MrBeast, creators, payments, AI agents, marketplaces… everything becomes more valuable if the user is verified human. That’s why the Forbes article is so important in hindsight. And that’s also why ORBS ($ORBS) is such an unusual public-market vehicle. You’re effectively getting: exposure to World/WLD, exposure to OpenAI, and exposure to the potential “human layer” of the AI internet …inside a company that today still trades close to mNAV. If this thesis keeps playing out, it is hard to imagine it staying there forever. The market still looks at $WLD as a token. The bigger picture may be: identity infrastructure for the AI era. Do your DD
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Fernando Pertini
Fernando Pertini@DecodeMarkets·
Goldman Sachs now projects nearly 46GW of cumulative SMR deployment by 2045. This is no longer a futuristic niche theme. It is becoming industrial policy, energy security and AI infrastructure ALL AT ONCE The market still talks about reactors. But reactors are only the visible layer. Behind every new SMR deployment there is a growing need for licensing, fuel qualification, hot cells, testing, waste handling and regulatory know-how. That is where companies like Studsvik start to matter. The Swedish market still largely values it like a legacy nuclear services company. The reality may look very different if this SMR curve keeps accelerating. And if Goldman is even remotely right… the uranium deficit story is only getting started. ☢️🇸🇪🇺🇸
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Fernando Pertini@DecodeMarkets·
$MELI stops are not below the chart. They are below the story. Once the market stops treating the founder premium as untouchable, the multiple has to reset
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Fernando Pertini@DecodeMarkets

$MELI can go up So what? The market is full of stocks that can go up The question is whether the risk is worth it. $GLOB already showed what happens when LatAm tech loses its premium multiple. Now $MELI has the better business… but the "Galperin discount" is real Still short Don't try this at home

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Fernando Pertini
Fernando Pertini@DecodeMarkets·
$MELI welcomes 52 week low 👀 Still looking heavy….
Carlos Maslatón@CarlosMaslaton

MELI, otra vez el problema es que está todo el mundo comprado, no hay gente afuera que pueda parar esta bajada. Quebrada técnicamente, espero que 1154 frene el actual bear market. Parece haber descripto 5 ondas de superciclo al alza desde el IPO del año 2007 y cerrado en 2645 en julio de 2025. Potencialmente la corrección puede llegar hasta 609, donde termina la cuarta onda de menor grado de mediados de 2022. Es una gran empresa, pero las cotizaciones bursátiles pasan por otro lado, no por sus fundamentos.

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Fernando Pertini
Fernando Pertini@DecodeMarkets·
This is not “nothing” A +1.4% MoM PPI print is massive. But the market also needs to understand something…gasoline prices in the US jumped more than 50% and moved above $4.50/gal. That alone was enough to make consensus estimates look absurdly complacent. The issue is not only inflation It’s that economists were still modeling a disinflationary world while commodities, freight and energy had already turned.
zerohedge@zerohedge

*US APRIL PRODUCER PRICES RISE 1.4% M/M; EST. +0.5% *US APRIL PRODUCER PRICES RISE 6.0% Y/Y; EST. +4.8%

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Steffan Szumowski
Steffan Szumowski@UnoMasReactor·
This report is wild to read. The entire nuclear fuel chain is a bottleneck
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James Hopf@HopfJames

The Trump admin has a goal to add 300 GW of nuclear capacity. McKinsey estimates that the fuel cycle alone (i.e., just providing the fuel for the reactors) would require an investment of $105 billion to $170 billion. Article link in reply. The breakdown is: $15 to $20 billion for uranium mining and milling $30 to $45 billion for conversion (converting U3O8 to UF6) $30 to $40 billion for enrichment $10 to $20 billion for fabrication $20 to $45 billion for reprocessing

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CapexAndChill
CapexAndChill@CapexAndChill·
Galperin discount? What are people talking about? Ariel is the basically one of the main reasons that $MELI is not a quarter of its current size today. He is ready to take MELI to new heights. Also how is MELI trading at a premium. We are not taking ttm earnings at face value are we?
Fernando Pertini@DecodeMarkets

$MELI can go up So what? The market is full of stocks that can go up The question is whether the risk is worth it. $GLOB already showed what happens when LatAm tech loses its premium multiple. Now $MELI has the better business… but the "Galperin discount" is real Still short Don't try this at home

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Fernando Pertini
Fernando Pertini@DecodeMarkets·
@Dom_Delecto @CapexAndChill No. It’s a “don’t confuse a great company with a risk-free multiple” short. Politics is not the thesis. Politics is the CATALYST for the market to reprice the CEO premium
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Fernando Pertini
Fernando Pertini@DecodeMarkets·
You can adjust earnings for provisioning. You can argue the credit book. You can normalize whatever you want. My point is simpler: the DCF is being marked today by a person called Marcos Galperin. When the CEO becomes a visible risk variable in a high-expectation stock, the discount rate moves. That is a reprice. Am I short forever? Of course not. I’ve been short from $2,100. I may cover into the final capitulation of the post-earnings buyers. That's at least, my trade
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CapexAndChill
CapexAndChill@CapexAndChill·
@DecodeMarkets @Dom_Delecto MELI does not trade at a premium multiple. Its earnings are completed deflated because of provisioning. $GLOB went down because it continued decelerating. Institutions are repricing MELI because its credit portfolio continues to grow so fast.
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Fernando Pertini
Fernando Pertini@DecodeMarkets·
The $GLOB comparison is not about business quality. $MELI is a much better business. No debate there. The comparison is about what happens when a LatAm tech darling trades at a premium multiple and the market starts repricing the risk.... ANy risk Argentine investors had $GLOB on a pedestal too. Watch the chart Similar PE zone. Great story. “Untouchable” stock. Then the premium broke. With $MELI, the business is not my issue. The issue is the setup: premium multiple, crowded local conviction, and now a growing CEO risk premium from constant political noise. That is why I’m short. Not because $MELI is a bad company. Because at these multiples, when blind buyers start hitting stop losses, that liquidity can become my cover. I may be wrong. But on the long side I prefer cleaner stories with clearer catalysts.
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@ethereumJoseph @MarkYusko @fundstrat @ARKInvest @SenatorTimScott @SenLummis @SenThomTillis @CapexAndChill