Deepthrought
19.3K posts
@DeepthroughtX
Science, pro humanist stance, without the identity politics. I will engage with anyone with a rational discussion, even from the other side. crypto=more freedom
3 Imminent $IREN Catalysts Not many companies have as much going for them right now as $IREN does. While management has been relatively quiet since the last earnings call, I believe we're standing right before a wave of major, thesis defining announcements. 1) Australia Expansion Given that Australia is where $IREN was incorporated, one might expect the company to already be operational there. Yet as of today, Australia remains merely the home of its HQ. That will likely change very soon... Just a couple of months ago, $IREN announced a sponsorship of the Sydney Swans, a prominent AFL team. As an isolated event, I wouldn't have thought much of it. The company's CEO is an Australian Football coach himself, so it could have simply been management paying homage to the company's roots. However, this sponsorship was accompanied by a sweeping marketing campaign across Australia. $IREN has seemingly gone all out on visual ad spend, plastering full trams with the company's logo and tagline across multiple Australian states, while also putting up new billboards outside Sydney's airport and other notables places. Knowing how cost disciplined management is, I seriously doubt they're burning all this money on nothing. I strongly believe the company is close to unveiling a major expansion into Australia. Currently, there are rumors that $IREN has at least two new data center sites lined up: one in South Australia, and one in New South Wales. With how aggressive the regional ad spend has been, I'd expect any new site announcement to be accompanied by large-scale customer contracts. If I had to speculate on who $IREN's first major customer in Australia might be, I'd wager on Anthropic, who recently announced plans to open an office in Sydney. 2) Sweetwater 1 Energization + Deal $IREN is likely just days or weeks away from energizing its largest site to date; the massive 1.4 GW Sweetwater 1 campus. With data center projects across the industry missing delivery timelines, largely due to an inability to secure reliable power, Sweetwater 1 stands out as a true unicorn. Having this much grid connected power concentrated at a single site is virtually unheard of, and positions Sweetwater as one of the most valuable assets in the sector. Successful energization will undoubtedly elevate $IREN's standing among operators industry wide, putting its execution capabilities on full display while competitors face severe delays and outright project cancellations. Management is also aggressively hiring for the Sweetwater campus, including night shift positions, a strong signal that the company is gearing up to develop new data centers at rapid speed around the clock, 24/7. This tells me we're likely nearing the signing of a new large-scale anchor client deal, possibly with another hyperscaler or frontier AI lab. My expectation is that the first tranche of the Sweetwater build-out will be designed entirely for liquid-cooled Rubins, with commissioning likely sometime in H1 2027. 3) Childress Expansion While Sweetwater is currently getting all the attention, we shouldn't overlook $IREN's first Texas campus; the 750 MW large Childress site. So far, $IREN has contracted 40% of the site's total capacity to Microsoft, 300 MW gross across 4 tranches (Horizon 1 to 4). That leaves 450 MW still up for grabs. With management clearly signaling its intention to fully convert the remainder of Childress into an air-cooled AI cloud campus, the runway potential remains enormous. Over the coming weeks, I'm expecting one of two things: either $IREN announces a new multi-hundred MW cloud contract for Childress, or management lays out a concrete plan to convert the remaining 450 MW into a large-scale cloud hub for multiple enterprise clients. Either way, the conversion of Childress's remaining capacity is likely to begin very soon. As with Sweetwater, the company is also actively hiring night shift HSE advisors for Childress construction, once again signaling an intent to scale development rapidly (night shift = 24/7 construction). On a side note, I'm also expecting the successful delivery of Horizon 1 this quarter to act as a meaningful catalyst for the company's competitive standing in the market. General Thoughts While I've covered each of these topics in depth in previous Substack reports, I believe the time has now come for this wave of catalysts to materialize. It's also worth pointing out that most Wall Street analysts fail to see around the corner when it comes to $IREN's cloud expansion. For the most part, they simply react to what's directly in front of them. That means $IREN is one of the rare stocks where retail investors can front run institutional capital, getting positioned before the catalysts materialize and before Wall Street prices them in accordingly. The irony is that over the past few weeks, retail has been doing the exact opposite: panic selling right before what I expect to be a major re-rate of the stock. Earlier this month I also heard many investors claim that $IREN couldn't move up before new large-scale deals or other catalysts materialized… That's a very dangerous way to think. Markets are inherently illogical. Trying to rationalize them is a mistake not only retail investors, but institutional ones too tend to make. Last year, $IREN's share price increased by over 1,000% from its April lows, purely on the expectation of a deal being close. If you'd waited for the actual announcement, you would have entered around $70… In any case, with these 3 major catalysts in front of us, I'm very much looking forward to the weeks ahead and especially to the Q1 earnings call. NFA, but I wouldn't be surprised if the stock cracks $100 in May. Images S/O: @FransBakker9812, @tempocap2
Rolling Stone moved Eric Clapton down from the top 10 of greatest guitar players of all time to 35 because he admitted to being Covid "vaccine" injured & refused to discriminate on entry to his concerts based on "vaccine" status. They even admit the reasoning in the explanation!
