TommyJR

$IREN Held up pretty well today now in 2 day low vol flag since putting in recent high Retesting the 21ema (from above) which is just curling positive for the first time since late Jan patreon.com/posts/153385682

@zerohedge Run by the dumbest people on earth

Why Is Australia Not Already Rationing Fuel? zerohedge.com/energy/why-aus…

@JEChalmers We're definitely observing something

Eid Mubarak! Wishing a joyful and blessed Eid to all those observing.

It’s always funny to see Wall Street completely fumble hyper-growth stocks. The street is expecting $IREN to make ~$8.4b in revenues by FY 2030, with EBITDA margins of just ~68%. Analysts are completely mispricing $IREN's 4.5 GW site-portfolio and multi-GW pipeline beyond that. I went ahead and modelled out my own near-term projections for the coming 2 years, using the following assumptions: Childress: 300 MW: MSFT Deal 450 MW: air-cooled (B300), fully ramped by Q3 2027 British Columbia: 160 MW: Mostly air-cooled, fully ramped by Q1 2027 Sweetwater 1: 600 MW: Vera Rubin (VR200) fully ramped by Q1 2028 Results: 👉 2027 = ~$8.3b (Rev) / ~$6.6b (EBITDA) 👉 2028 = ~$12.7b (Rev) / ~$10.3b (EBITDA) One of Wall Street’s problems is that they only price what’s directly in front of them. My 2027 revenue estimates are basically Wall Street’s 2030 projections. 🤦🏻‍♂️ And to be honest, my assumptions are actually very sensible. For the air-cooled deployments across Childress & BC, I used revenues BELOW management’s guidance. For exact modelling inputs and FCF / net income projections up to 2030, refer to my new $IREN deep dive on Substack. To be clear, I’m much more confident in my 2028 projection, since Sweetwater’s ramp could be more heavily skewed toward H2 2027 and H1 2028 instead of the simplified linear ramp approach I used. However, the point remains: Wall Street is completely dropping the ball on this one. What do you think will happen once $IREN announces its next hyperscaler deals at Childress and Sweetwater? → Massive re-rate incoming, as Wall Street scrambles to upgrade their idiotic projections.

The collective cost of Albo and co's electricity subsidies would have paid for almost half the cost a 100m barrel oil and fuel storage facility and kept all of our 2009 refineries in operation (rough AI estimate). That is how badly our policymakers screwed up.

@AvidCommentator Cut spending and regulation Not a little But a lot

'Chalmers’ budget pain: Productivity down, migration up' Just a little reminder it was being projected by government that the housing deficit was getting larger by the day, even before migration was to be ramped even higher. afr.com/policy/economy…

$IREN Held up pretty well today now in 2 day low vol flag since putting in recent high Retesting the 21ema (from above) which is just curling positive for the first time since late Jan patreon.com/posts/153385682

Why I’m Not Invested in $NBIS First of all, let me make one thing clear: contrary to what you might think, I’m not an $NBIS bear. But then again, I’m not invested either… and for good reason. Nebius positions itself as a holistic cloud platform with superior software technology that caters to AI-native start-ups and enterprise clients. That in and of itself isn’t a problem, but it means they're directly competing against the largest hyperscalers in the world, who are also targeting that exact cohort with their own set of software solutions (Google Cloud, Microsoft, etc.). Nonetheless, if $NBIS can successfully differentiate itself with its core offerings, it could gain some pricing power, which is the company’s best shot at one day becoming profitable. The problem is, $NBIS is VERY far away from that… Looking at the last quarterly filing, the company’s gross expenses + depreciation equaled ~110% of its revenues. In other words, these two cost categories exceeded the value of the underlying revenues ($249.2m vs. revenue of $227.7m). To be fair, last quarter Nebius still used a 4 year depreciation schedule on GPUs, which is rather short and overstates depreciation. Adjusting for a 5 year depreciation schedule (industry standard) leads us to $144.6m of depreciation. Then, adding gross expenses of $68.5m on top gets you to $213.1m, which equals 93.5% of revenues. And keep in mind, this figure does NOT include the hundreds of millions in costs spent on SG&A, R&D, and financing (interest). So what’s my point with this? The problem is, these are STRUCTURAL costs, the kind that scale with revenue, meaning you can’t easily grow out of them through sheer scale. My point is that $NBIS' pricing power is nowhere to be seen, at least not relative to its costs. Now, most $NBIS investors would probably argue that we are still "early" and that pricing power will show up eventually. My problem with that argument is that the company seems to be allocating a very large chunk of its pipeline towards servicing hyperscalers through bare metal offerings, the kind of “bulk” service that does NOT command significant pricing power. That means, fundamentally speaking, $NBIS is likely very far away from actually becoming profitable. And while right now everyone is focused on headline figures like ARR, the market’s patience will run out eventually... it ALWAYS does for every company. One day, the market will demand to see real profits flow down to the bottom line, and I’m not sure if $NBIS is structurally positioned to deliver on that any time soon. To make matters worse, investors can’t even model out the economics of these large hyperscaler deals, because management provides absolutely 0 information on anything except headline figures. We don’t even know the CapEx associated with these deals, or at the very least, the number of GPUs they have to purchase to fulfill their end of the bargain. Contrast that with a company like $IREN, which gives you all the necessary information to build an entire P&L and cash flow model over the full course of the contract length, which is exactly what I’ve done extensively for our subscribers on Substack. I have a VERY good idea of how much actual post-tax net income $IREN is making in every year of their hyperscaler contract. There are other reasons that further point in the same direction, but I won’t get into them right now. If they fix their cost structure one day, I’m happy to reconsider my stance. But as of today, their “black box” approach to publishing details on their largest deals makes them uninvestable for me.

@bowtiedstocks Learnt zero from COVID Absolute clown show in Canberra

This is what 'well prepared' looks like Hope you got a good bicycle™️

Attending @NVIDIAGTC? Don't miss @theallinpod @Jason's interview with $IREN Co-Founder and Co-CEO @danroberts0101. 🗓️When: Today, 1:15pm PDT 📍Where: Expo Hall (between the @nvidia Booth and Automotive area)

$HIMS: WILL EXPAND OUR PLATFORM TO INCLUDE WEGOVY PILLS AND INJECTIONS AND OZEMPIC INJECTIONS

$ONDS coming up to the gold zone again with triple blue diamonds... let's see if we can get a candle close above today. 👀

BREAKING🚨: ALL FIVE types of nucleic acid bases, the building blocks of LIFE 'DNA and RNA', have been found in samples collected from asteroid Ryugu

Australia looks to be stuffed pretty quickly from energy mismanagement. Also has some good policy suggestions that need to be taken immediately. theconcernedobserver.substack.com/p/1018-days-un…

$LMND follow through on MS Upgrade + McKinsey piece my tempoClaude AI summary "AI will reshape insurance, not kill it. Most insurers are on Step 1-2 LMND was built natively on Step 3 mckinsey.com/industries/fin… Much more detail for subs @ patreon.com/tempocap

@Agrippa_Inv My number 1 holding Was a banger of a piece and I'm sure there is more to come

@tempocap2 Awesome! 🔥

New $IREN Deep Dive: Childress Unlocked I’ve spent the last couple of weeks writing the most important $IREN deep dive I’ve published to date. Air-cooling at Childress is a MUCH bigger deal than the vast majority of investors and analysts realize. Honestly, $IREN price targets across the board should be well above $100 at this point. But Wall Street missing the forest for the trees is nothing new. I’ve extensively modelled out the company’s near-term pipeline using conservative assumptions (below management’s guidance), and it’s clear as day that the market isn’t properly pricing in $IREN's industry-leading earnings power. $IREN is going to make BILLIONS of actual net income over the coming years… not just meaningless EBITDA or top-line figures, but real profits flowing to the bottom line. If anyone is the next hyperscaler, it’s $IREN. Remember, real hyperscalers are actually profitable… At the same time, every investor should be aware of looming industry risks that affect all neo-clouds in the sector and evaluate how they could impact the investment thesis. That’s exactly what I’ve done for all our readers. These are the topics this new report covers: ➞ Breaking down the new GPU orders + new guidance ➞ Implications of air-cooling ➞ Extensive pipeline modelling ➞ Comprehensive analysis of the new $6b ATM ➞ Risks to the investment thesis ➞ + Plenty of bonus topics This 40+ page mega deep dive covers everything $IREN investors should be aware of today. It’s written in a very reader-friendly way, with many graphics & embedded video clips throughout. I chuckle when I read so-called “analysts” on X give their takes on $IREN after doing nothing more than surface-level analysis (at best). Most investors have no idea where this is heading… If you’ve read the new deep dive, I’d love to hear your feedback in the comments. Appreciate all of you, cheers! ✌️ agrippa.investments/p/iren-childre…

If you had of said to me 3 weeks ago that Labor could lose the next election I would have laughed. But honestly, if we end up in a protracted fuel crisis and the economy gets hammered as a result, while Japan and South Korea happily sip tea, it's infinitely more possible.

Too many are too polite to say this. But mass ritual prayer in public places is an act of domination. The adhan - which declares there is no god but allah and Muhammad is his messenger - is, when called in a public place, a declaration of domination. Perform these rituals in mosques if you wish. But they are not welcome in our public places and shared institutions. And given their explicit repudiation of Christianity they certainly do not belong in our churches and cathedrals. I am not suggesting everybody at Trafalgar Square last night is an Islamist. But the domination of public places is straight from the Islamist playbook. Trafalgar Square belongs to all of us. It is a national memorial to our independence and our salvation. Last night was not like a televised football match or a St Patrick’s Day celebration. It was an act of domination and therefore division. It shouldn’t happen again.

@AvidCommentator Australia Learning absolutely no lessons from COVID which was 6 years ago

This is a rough AI estimate, but it would have cost under $20bn to build a 100m barrel oil storage facility & maintain our former refinery capacity capable of supplying ~70% of our fuel needs If this becomes a protracted crisis, it will cost the economy that it in about 3 weeks