Deg3n3ro

how do you short someone's reputation? we've been working on this problem for well over a year now what started as a simple LMSR market has now evolved into Ethos Trade, a new product we're launching today with the Beta tag Reputation Markets v2 ↓

Bear markets are exactly when the best trades get made. But everyone is out here scanning charts alone. Second guessing every entry, with no one to check their read against and compare thesis. There's currently so many assets beaten down for months, waiting to be found before everyone else catches on. If we open a spaces to break it down together, would you share your watchlist with us? Drop a yes below if you are up to it 👇

gn tweet (sorry, it's very long) Some ideas to wrap up the week and start the next one. There are some older trades that I still have open (HYPE, BTC/MSTR, VELO/AERO) on which I won't comment too much, but the ideas are still intact. 1. AI Megatrend in 2026+, Fable Ban & Trades I'll start by repeating something that I'm deeply convinced is going to shape up the year and probably the next multiple years (at least in terms on mentality, hard to tell in practical terms since everything's so new) for AI. The first is bringing some economic units to the equation: so far it was "spend as much as you can" but now finally companies are understanding what who used LLMs individually for a long time (but managed to keep an objective standpoint) knows: you can FEEL productive even without BEING productive, if you are not organized. And organization is exactly what now people will rush to get: visibility in spending, what's productive and what's not, what are the ways to get the most out of your spending, how to reutilize the results of past spending. Essentially, we are rediscovering the worthwhile of diligence, something that businesses knew very well for every other aspect, but embraced the belief this wasn't necessary for AI spending in particular. Now we get to trading ideas. So I missed the trading implication of the Fable ban, because I think the immediate conclusions people drew were a bit silly (if you offer a workaround you're gonna get yoinked hard, it's not bullish), and I was still half asleep. Essentially though, the more reasonable idea is that this could bring much more attention to decentralized models, privacy (in both training and inferences). It's kind of a theme that crosses over with the previous "efficiency" one since we know that opensource models are generally 90% cheaper for the same unit of intelligence, although they cannot match the level of the frontier models (yet). Am I about to shill $VVV or $TAO? Am I about to shill you $PRL? Hell nah. There are a few upcoming tokens that are going to be interesting to watch, but I cannot reasonably shill something with a fuckton of emissions (TAO), something up 20x (VVV), or something whose whole point is "it's BTC but you do inference / AI work to mine it" (PRL) 1a: EigenCloud & DarkBloom However, I do indeed have a couple ideas here. The first one is $EIGEN (give me one second, put down those rotten tomatoes...). Eigenlayer has been maybe peak disappointment for the 2023 cycle, and I'm sure the disillusion about restaking has massively contributed to the current sentiment around Ethereum (it also redirected a lot of funds that could have gone elsewhere). The reason why I bring it up, is that Eigenlayer essentially pivoted from just restaking and DA to EigenCloud. Now if that still doesn't tell you anything (why should it, honestly), the point I'm trying to make has even more to do with what they just went out with: DarkBloom. In the most layman terms ever, it's Airbnb for AI inference based on Mac compute, with privacy and verification layered on top. There are also other things going on (ECSDA Fail is p cool for example, check that out) and even if these things may see narrow to you, don't forget that EIGEN is now not a $20b asset anymore, but actually a $350m fdv one (well with still $7.25m/mo in unlocks... but we close two eyes). After ELIP-12 there are also chances that EIGEN start accruing some revenue (100% of net from EigenAI, EigenCloud, EigenDA and 20% from AVSs). Essentially, I like EIGEN here, and bought some. 1b: OpenServ The second one is OpenServ $SERV. I'll not spend too much time on this one, since I talked about it plenty already, but essentially it's a reasoning/orchestration layer for agents and it's rare to find an alt that ticks so many of my boxes: - good narrative / business - actually some adoption (even by non crypto native firms) - there's a revenue path for the token On the last point: clients can buy reasoning credits in USD or USDC, and 25% of SERV Reasoning API revenue is used to market-buy and burn SERV. It also says 25% of Build revenue, 25% of launchpad LP trading fees, and 25% of enterprise/B2B integration revenue go to buyback/burn. It seems all shiny and positive, the only thing I'm worried about is how vocal are things around it, which is not always a good sign. But i'm willing to ride the train. 2. RWA: Credit and Tokenized Equities This is probably the other thing that we will talk ad nauseam about (just like last year, AI and RWA, RWA and AI, with a sprinkle of privacy too). 2a: Morpho While for credit tokenization and yield bearing assets of any kind, it's clear to everybody at this point that $MORPHO is the big dog (although still plenty of reservations on some individual markets that curators are setting up - but hey), with not only Apollo's investment earlier in February, but a new round with a16z, Paradigm and Ribbit. Now, the dynamics of MORPHO the token are very well known, and there's no need to say that an OTC deal that the team essentially self-passed and financed is not going to move the price on the market. However, the interest around the token, as long as the terms (which are only semi-disclosed) are as good as they seem, could indicate that things may change in the future, and holding it may have some purpose other than as a prize/ribbon that comes with another deal. 2b: Backpack Securities On the RWA side, another token to keep our eyes on is $BP (watch this mark the local top after i've been silently enjoying the rip up). So while I never used their exchange (and i'm not particularly interested in), you needed not to have eyes not to see that their tokenization efforts are starting to collect some clout, that the token is still below $100m circulating and that it has all the potential for a good pump. Now, Backpack is not just an exchange, and not just a wallet. Backpack Securities is actual a proper broker that allows <> tokenization of the assets you hold onto it and you can also transfer <> other brokers. There are shareholder features are still in development but hopefully coming soon. I don't like the team, but the bull case is p clear. Solana in particular hasn't had a winner for a while (aside from maybe JTO recently, with JTX), and this, once again, ticks many boxes. Moreover, the time is pretty good to get the spotlight, since a lot of other "tokenization" projects are essentially cooking synthetic multilayered crap, or hyping up big Pre-IPO campaigns just to deliver 0 on it. 2c: Others $CEPT is obviously the play to watch (Securitize) as we prepare for the reverse merger on the TradFi side. Finally, I'll leave a small Variational shill here: the exchange is good (actually my favorite to use on a day to day basis for short term trading, due to the variety of the offering) and they just started introducing RWA assets recently. The offering there is not enormous yet, and spread is not always super good, but it adds to the fact that it covers already so many assets. Me likes Variational (and also, go points). 3. Space and Nasdaq additions I'll be short here since I already floated the core of the idea. SpaceX is live. $RKLB has acted as a proxy/beta for very long now, and has even been added to the Nasdaq 100. In the last 5 years, Nasdaq-100 Additions overperformed the QQQ by about 37% in the 120 days prior to the inclusion, and then underperformed it (with generally a negative $ performance) consistently in the following 120 days. RKLB has been an extreme case of outperformance before, due to the further catalyst of SpaceX, I expect it to be an extreme case of underperformance after. I've puts that are (finally) ITM and I've also a separate short position. I looked for other tickets that looked as good as this to add to the SpaceX unwinding idea, but I struggled to find better (more ideas are welcome). Another ticker that i'm carefully watching for this is $CRWV but it's not really related to SpaceX, although it's another addition on June 22nd like RKLB and it's another retail darling of the cycle. 4. Last: NeoBanks $XPL jumped up tremendously with the P1 announcement, this trickled down to a few more "Crypto NeoBanks" smaller tokens, but not all of them. I personally think that while i'm a XPL Pamp Enjooooyor, I don't have enough confidence that this will translate in a broader market bid for the category to take any position on the narrative (or any further position on XPL than my currently locked tokens). I like the card and i'll probably sign up for one of the paid programs. Recently I've been jumping bw P1 and EtherFi, but lately I've settled more on P1 due to the much sleeker UX. Perks are also better, but now that EtherFi has 0 fees on EUR spending, while P1 3% cashback is going to become pay-gated, you can make an argument for both (and for both tokens). There'd be plenty more to say, but I'll keep it for another time. If you're still alive at this point, thanks for reading, and may the odds be ever in your favor.