karlos
439 posts

karlos
@DegenDad01
💯 full time father & husband ı part time degen































During this period I'm seeing a lot of people stating with absolute certainty that we will have massive gains from here, assuming an average of more than 20x. This comes from the sole fact that they're comparing this cycle to the 2020/21 one, improperly. My cold take on the situation: Probably nourished by the ETF or the new "pro-BTC" political reforms, the majority of market participants think that Bitcoin is ready to climb well above 100K in this cycle. I've seen plenty of targets, most of them quite unrealistic that, in my opinion, will lead to a severe massacre across retail investors. I already provided my main thesis for the Bitcoin top and its potential targets in this post: x.com/IamZeroIka/sta… but one of the most important thing to remind ourselves once again (if it were still needed) is that institutions are not our friends. They're not here to pump our bags and considering the huge monetary discrepancy they have with us (they operate with gazillions), they also don't need a Bitcoin to soar till 200K+ like many expect. At some point, they will just synchronize the algorithms creating huge sell pressure at specific levels, not allowing the price to rise consistently. Majority are also forgetting about the fact that Bitcoin is up more than 370% from December 2022 bottom, and if you take a look at the chart is absolutely parabolic. Does this seem "the start of the bullrun" to you or more like a "final phase"? To me, the second option. But I know what you're thinking..."Bro, altcoins didn't perform at all, the BTC D. has been in an uptrend and we haven't seen a proper altseason". Letting aside the fact that we already seen an important rise from them (look at TOTAL 3/OTHERS from 22 lows, mostly related to specific narratives like AI, RWA, BTC etc), expecting an average of 20x on most coins is absolutely unrealistic in my opinion. But let's make an interesting comparison: USDT D. + BTC D. During the 2020/21 bullrun where we had that double top formation, we had an average USDT D. decline of 50%, which has ignited both runs of BTC and altcoins, as you can see from the drop of the BTC D. occurred from December 20 to May 21 (full altseason). In this cycle instead, we already had a large drop (average of 50%) on USDT D. from the bottom of 2022 to the 2024 local top. And while the Bitcoin dominance hasn't dropped yet (it will, don't worry) do you expect another massive drawdown from the USDT D.? Honestly, this isn't likely given the historical trendline acting as powerful support, and while the BTC D. can drop with the USDT D. remaining flat thus moving liquidity toward altcoins, expecting 20/30xs as an average is highly unrealistic. "Does this mean no altseason? Rekt? As I highlighted plenty of times considering all the bullish HTF closures we had on Bitcoin and both TOTAL 3/OTHERS, I'm definitely leading for an altseason (in the most "prehistoric" sense, with a BTC D. drop) but I'm not expecting money thrown on people like in 2021. Altcoins dilution is real, diminishing returns also. Take a look at the percentages on OTHERS: From the bottom to the complacency shoulder we ran approximately 400%. From these levels to a potential top around 600/700B, we can run a 200%. Half than before, resulting in higher prices for altcoins but not as much as the general consensus is. Some charts will pull crazy numbers, but they will be very limited compared to the past and those who are telling you a different story are simply lying to you for engagement purposes. Better striking for a "safe" 3/5/10x instead of bold expectations. Don't get sucked into rekt land because you're reading about old comparisons.

