Dekant

this UAE team is building better prediction markets for continuous outcomes - follow @Dekantfi

People don’t think in binary. They think in ranges, probabilities, and conviction. Most prediction markets still force those beliefs into yes/no boxes. A good market should express not just direction, but confidence, range, and shape. That’s the gap @Dekantfi closes!

polymarket runs 35 markets to ask one question. that’s where this started. we weren’t trying to build a prediction market, we were trying to understand why every one of them felt broken for us as a daily trader/gambler, even when the volume was real! so we pulled them apart. @polymarket, @kalshi and everything in between. same pattern everywhere: 1- every interesting question gets sliced into yes/no buckets. 2- each bucket has thin liquidity. 3- each one competes for the same dollar. tails don’t exist, nuance doesn’t exist! and more importantly real beliefs don’t fit. i.e imagine you have a conviction on btc lands somewhere between 110k–130k with a fat tail to 150k, there’s no clean way to express that. you’re forced into stacking binaries, paying spread on each, managing fragments of a single view which most people just don’t bother. the best information never hits the market. that’s when it clicked: this isn’t a ux issue. the structure is wrong. we started exploring alternatives. not just at the surface level, but from first principles. what a market should look like if it actually captured belief as a continuous thing. the math wasn’t trivial, designing a single curve that can price an entire distribution, mapping incentives so liquidity providers, traders, and the mechanism itself stay aligned; none of this was plug-and-play. it took time to get the model to a point where it’s not just elegant, but actually holds under real usage. but once it clicked, it was obvious: one curve. one market. no picking sides, you express a distribution and you get paid by how close you are to reality! this is what prediction markets were always supposed to be, so we built it. @dekantfi is a continuous prediction market on @solana where you draw your belief, you get paid by how close it was, not by which bracket you picked. one market replaces 35, liquidity stays in one placeand tails finally get priced! this is what we’re shipping for @colosseum. btw early access is here, don't miss it out! dekant.xyz

my friend @somonaut shared this with me. an intersting read on pred markets and a new design. give it a read!