DOC40

@CommodMkt Are all the Munificoent 7 components of XLE?

The Two Bottlenecks. The Munificent 7 vs The Magnificent 7. The structural backdrop of 2026 is a single shared constraint. Physical capacity has become the binding variable across every layer of the economy. There are two bottlenecks the market is choosing to fund — and they sit on opposite sides of the same molecule trade. The first is Hormuz. Persian Gulf transit remains permission-based. And this is not just an oil chokepoint. It is a commodity-system chokepoint. Crude, LNG, ammonia, urea, naphtha, aluminium, petrochemicals — all flow through the same passage. Iran does the math on the Mag 7 short as well as anyone; the longer the chokepoint holds, the more leverage compounds. Hormuz is not likely to reopen soon. Even if it does, the security premium is structural, not transitional. The second is hyperscaler compute. The Mag 7 plus Oracle will spend roughly $820 billion on capital expenditure in 2026 — approaching Germany's entire annual capital formation, and larger than the UK and France individually. That capex is the largest physical commodity bid ever assembled inside eight income statements. These are not two separate trades. They are the two sides of the same equation. The Magnificent 7 is the bid for molecules, electrons, copper, water, gallium, and concrete. The Munificent 7 — ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Shell, TotalEnergies, BP, and Equinor — are the offer. At $105 Brent they generate a 15.5% FCF yield (hence Munificent). The Magnificent 7 generates closer to 1.5%. That's the asymmetry! At $105 oil for 2026: Munificent 7 — 15.5% FCF yield, 7x PE. Magnificent 7 — 1.5% FCF yield, 28x PE. At consensus, the Munificent 7 still yield 12%. The bottleneck is energy and commodities. Theory says capital flows to stocks with improving ROIC. The price of one cannot move without repricing the other. 3/10

Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history. The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade. Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride. Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.

@TheDailyGold @TheGoldAdvisor @Sorenthek @Brien_Lundin @SeanBrodrick Hi Jordan, are you still expecting Gold to go lower into May following this chart?

Gold's performance after previous two post-major breakout corrections: +115% in 14 months +85% in 17 months

@AbuZeenah_ Raheem Sterling

Guess The Player ? Level__100% Impossible

Current #4 (March 2–20, 2026: $117.18 → $78.74) is the largest and cleanest of the four. It is still in progress, testing the top of the flag right now (~$99–$101 zone as of April 10–11 close).What this history tells us for the current setup. Every single time a bear flag formed after a sharp drop in this bull market, GDX broke the lower flag line and moved lower first. Double bottoms or higher lows were the norm (never an exact retest in all 3 cases — price usually stopped $1–$3 short or formed a classic W). The correction always stayed inside the larger secular uptrend. After the bottom formed, the bull resumed strongly every time (new highs within 3–6 weeks)...courtesy of Grok....dare I say it you are both correct!

Accurate Stats (April 2024 – April 11, 2026) 4 clear bear flag setups on the GDX daily chart (sharp pole down + upward-sloping flag into broken resistance). All 3 completed setups resolved downward first (100% downside continuation after the flag). 0 upward invalidations in the completed ones (no case where the flag broke higher cleanly without first retesting the lows or forming a bottom).

$GOLD $SILVER $GDX $SILJ If you’re having a Saturday or Sunday coffee and you’re into precious metals, you may want to give this one a read... @garysavage1 finally responded with some actual context, and to be fair, I appreciate that. This now feels more like a gentleman’s debate than the usual noise. I also don’t want this buried in the reply section... So if you’re holding bullion, miners, or both, give it a proper 5–10 minute read. I think it clears up a few important things around timeframe, structure, relative strength, and why a secular bull still does not rule out corrections, backtests, or hedge zones. Feel free to chime in as well... My focus today probably won’t be primarily on Substack, so I may not respond much in real time, but I’ll likely come back to it over the weekend or early next week. And Gary, if you’re open to continuing the discussion respectfully, I’m happy to do that... For those asking where to find more of my work: the Discord is mainly where I share the active trading side, while Substack is more for the longer-term thesis, macro, and stock-picking side. Both are in my handle.

Really like these pay-off structures. Just with respect to UVXY specifically as a HTB stock, how do you manage the assignment and auto buy-in risk if the high call gets assigned. In this one it's very high but some of your other suggestions the call strike is a lot lower. This risk aside its a complete winner - so can u manage or do u just wear it?

I opened some new $UVXY combo. I’m selling both calls and puts due to the high volatility, which makes the options very attractive-especially to sponsor an in-the-money put. I start losing if $UVXY falls more than 35% or rises more than 33%. No stop loss: just position sizing. Buy 1 62 Put Sell 3 47 Put Sell 1 80 Call

@MarketMovesMatt system

Text from my wife, 2020: "Should we be worried about the market?" Text from my wife, 2021: "Are you sure this is working?" Text from my wife, 2022: "Maybe we should just index fund it?" Text from my wife, 2026: "Can we go to Europe again?" Me: "Booked." The difference? I stopped guessing and built a system. Comment "SYSTEM" to learn more

@tbald101 The securitisation market is a Huxley important mechanism for comnecting capital markets to the real economy…and making banks safer with smaller balance sheets…you really should do your homework before you write, it shows extraordinary ignorance on the topic

@tbald101 Banks are funded by deposits which are short term liabilities, and then lend long term via 20-30 year mortgages. By definition and function they operate an asset -liability mismatch business model. This is inherently risky and is why they are subject to prudential regulation.

Ireland is facing a potentially devastating economic shock due to the size and scale of its unregulated Shadow Banking Industry But what is Shadow Banking and why should I care ? 🧵 🇮🇪 📈

@tbald101 SPVs and ecuritisarion vehicles match assets and liabilities and rather than obtaining funding from retail depositors issue bonds/abs to institutional investors…structurally this is is much safer than a bank operating model for reasons that should be pretty obvious

While this was defeated sooner rather than later Ireland will have to address the elephant in the room before a major systemic shock happens Interested in learning more? Read my work here: theomcdonald.substack.com/p/irelands-sha…

People from around the world are signing this viral open letter against the war. Add your voice, and stand with the people of #Ukraine! #NoWar #StandWithUkraine #StandWithUkriane fb.avaaz.org/campaign/en/st…

@ShaneKeegan81 @SamJDean physical size and scanning....the larger kids don’t have to scan and they can rely on their athleticism and physical size...the smaller ones learn the benefits of scanning pretty quickly...there’s a study there if it hadn’t been done yet

This is a really great piece from @SamJDean on the importance of scanning in football, an attribute that separates the good from the great more than any other. independent.ie/sport/soccer/t…

@ShaneKeegan81 @SamJDean He has found that most of the best scanners had a "big personal insight" at a very young age....what Modric, Xavi, Inesta, David Silva, Scholes, Messi...interesting to look at how physically big they were at underage...suspect there is a high degree of inverse correlation between

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Xavi Hernandez 🧠 💭

Great to see #istandwithpogba trending. King Eric said it best. ‘Arguing with a racist people is like playing chess with a pigeon. It doesn’t matter how good you are. The pigeon is going to knock all the pieces down, shit on the board and parade around like his won’ Eric Cantona

This is definitely @ManUtd’s best performance with Mourinho at Old Trafford.

“If you invest in a women’s team they have more chance of success on a world stage” says @Aineogor9 #playxplay #PlayXPlaylive #wwc19

Lucy Bronze. The best player in the world? Watch the World Beaters boxset now: bbc.in/2YW3JBN #changethegame