Derek Elder

@vtchakarova It doesn’t really matter, it’s just a political song and dance. Clinton ignored it in Kosovo (79 days), Obama in Libya (200+ days), and almost every president since 1973 has argued it is unconstitutional, and they have a decent argument if it ever made it to the Supreme Court.

Trump administration is arguing that the war in Iran has already ended because of the ceasefire that began in early April, an interpretation that would allow the White House to avoid the need to seek congressional approval after crossing the 60-days deadline on May 1. Convenient.

@lylegoldstein Is that really China’s strategy, a Normandy type invasion? I’ve heard that before, but it seems hard to believe. Or are they similar to Russia where more bodies is the solution to every problem? How would mass casualties psychologically affect their soldiers?

Chinese ground forces helos drill for sea-crossing operation (aka Taiwan scenario). CCTV7, Junshi Baodao, 29 Apr. I estimate China could employ about 750 transport and utility helos to land its troops on Taiwan. Even with heavy losses, I expect they could land 20K soldiers on day 1. That does not include parachute landings, which might double that number. And that's before anyone hits the beach. To discourage such a dark outcome, which is unfortunately all too real, Taipei needs to 'get real' through developing a viable political track with Beijing.

@AngelicaOung @BrookingsFP Fair enough

@DerekElder306 @BrookingsFP I would say there is a whole chasm between intention and doing

"Xi's real eye is on not seizing the island [of Taiwan]. It's on his other goal... to have China be basically unreliant on the rest of the world, while the rest of the world is highly reliant on China." Listen to the latest episode of The Beijing Brief: brook.gs/4sZfgxG

@JustWait_For_It @ryangerritsen It’s being privately funded. A US company is paying $2B to construct 650 miles of pipe in the US. A Canadian company is building the remaining 380 km in Canada (no price announced yet). It will use the 150 km of pipe Keystone XL already laid (and paid for). Seems like a win/win.

@ryangerritsen We could have paid for it with a fraction of the money we sent to Ukraine. He is only pushing it in case Alberta wins the referendum. I don’t see it as a win.

This is a huge win for Alberta & Canada.

@BraneRunner @BrookingsFP @danzwku What about TSMC? I would say it’s critically important for the west. If probably won’t always be, but today it would be a disaster if it fell into China’s hands.

@BrookingsFP @danzwku Taiwan is just a red herring for stupid Americans. Strategic Ambiguity BS

@AngelicaOung @BrookingsFP Wouldn’t you say the world has finally caught onto their plan and is moving (albeit very slowly) to counter China in manufacturing and rare earth minerals? But it makes me wonder what China’s next move is to reestablish that dependency in other critical areas?

I basically agree with this point of view. This is going to be a disappointment to highly nationalistic pro-PRC readers, but Taiwan, as long as it cannot be utilized as a military asset and it is blocked from announcing de jure independence, is not thaaaaat important. To put it another way: If China achieves its goal of becoming "unreliant on the rest of the world while the rest of the world is highly reliant on China", then Taiwan falls into its lap without fighting. If China fails to achieve this goal, even with Taiwan, the whole nation is in great peril.

@PhilGarber5 @JLevendia @FreeNortherner I think Americans would be happy with that. Politicians would never allow a new state without another to balance it out. And there is no advantage to being a territory. Your resources make you wealthy and there is 0 chance we wouldn’t defend Alberta (or Canada).

@JLevendia @FreeNortherner No lies detected. Having said that if Alberta did separate I would just as soon it did not join the US. Nothing against the US but the point of separating is to gain more autonomy, not to give it up altogether.

Canada is thoroughly Americanized already: the America they hate is just Red State America. In this way Canada is merely an extension of the Blue States. Even our anti-Americanism is the branch plant of an American parent.

@revishvilig How is Elon Musk a techno-fascist? Last I checked he wasn’t the one trying to silence speech. If the general is referring to Starlink, then Ukraine is welcome to produce their own equivalent system. I’m sure SpaceX will welcome the business.

General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and current Ambassador to the UK: Due to scientific and technological progress, it has become impossible, regardless of what others may claim, to carry out operational-level tasks. 1/12

@ThisIllDefend13 @Dr_M_Davis @revishvilig @WarintheFuture If Ukraine had the capabilities to eliminate Russia’s air defenses, the stalemate would be broken and the war would look much different.

@ThisIllDefend13 @Dr_M_Davis @revishvilig @WarintheFuture Yeap. It feels like a lot of people are taking the wrong lessons from the Ukraine war. All war environments are different. AI, drone, and anti-drone tech are important capabilities, but you can’t neglect traditional systems working in sync together with the new tech.

@MRD87694463 @SantiagoAuFund @DarioCpx I’ve lately wondered if some of Trump’s rhetoric towards Europe and NATO might be so that the relationship can’t go back to the status quo no matter how the next election goes. Obviously there are pros and cons to that tactic.

@SantiagoAuFund @DarioCpx I think that's the goal. Make it painful. Prompt reshoring Prompt new energy projects. Shift power to the Americas

Dear President Trump, I understand your advisors and intel are telling you that thanks to the naval blockade Iran is “days away” from economic collapse. I’d be happy to share my intel with you for your reference, hope is appreciated.

@YossiGoldstein8 It’s only going to get worse. Wars will be viewed live by the public where the enemy will post photos and videos of your dead soldiers, or of them being killed. It’ll be terrible. The government knows this and wants to avoid it, but people don’t fully realize that reality yet.

@YossiGoldstein8 I think it has more to do with media and technology being so integrated into our lives. Photos of dead marines in magazines in WWII shocked the public, but ever since Vietnam was broadcasted on TV, Americans are no longer tolerant of mass casualties.

Why was a ground invasion worth it to save South Korea… but not Iran? The U.S. lost about 36,000 soldiers killed and over 100,000 wounded in the Korean War. South Korea had no oil. No massive natural resources. And yet today? A wealthy, advanced country. One of America’s biggest trading partners. A key security ally. No one in the U.S. seriously argues that defending South Korea wasn’t worth the cost. Iran? A country of 90+ million people. Massive oil reserves. Huge geopolitical position. Highly educated population. By sheer potential, Iran could become even more important than South Korea is today. So why was a ground invasion “worth it” then… …but Iran isn’t worth rescuing now? It's a rethorical question of course, and the answer is that Americans have gone through a massive misinformation campaign.

@davids1054 @MacBaldwinM1163 @Defence_Index You have to have both. Drone and anti-drone tech is now required in addition to all the existing war tech, it doesn’t replace it. If Russia’s air defenses were wiped out, Ukraine would be using fighters/bombers. But they aren’t, so it’s primarily drones.

@MacBaldwinM1163 @Defence_Index Given the success of drones in Ukraine and Iran, what are your thoughts on Canada heading for drone warfare rather than conventional aircraft?

⭕🇨🇦🇺🇸 SHOCK MOVE: CANADA RECONSIDERS $19 BILLION F-35 DEAL Canada is putting the brakes on its plan to buy 88 F-35 Lightning II fighter jets in a move that could reshape its military future. Defence Minister David McGuinty confirmed the deal is under review, as Prime Minister Mark Carney raises concerns about deep dependence on U.S. defense giants like Lockheed Martin. The C$19 billion agreement, announced in 2023, was meant to define Canada’s air power for decades. Now it’s facing uncertainty amid shifting geopolitical priorities. Is Ottawa preparing a backup plan, or signaling a broader break from U.S. military reliance? Source: Reuters

@lancemate @bea_johanssen @WallStreetMav @ChrisO_wiki If you really want to know more about this, this is a very good European source explaining essentially this same situation in 2012. I think it’s pretty fair to both Europe’s and the US’s perspectives: cer.eu/publications/a…

@DerekElder306 @bea_johanssen @WallStreetMav @ChrisO_wiki Can you show me an example of a European nation pleading with the US to keep troops throughout Europe?

1/ This is what it looks like on Europe-wide Gallup polls. Greenland is absolutely the thing that has destroyed approval of Trump, and the US, in Europe. Note that Denmark, formerly one of the most US countries in Europe, is now the most anti-US.

@lancemate @bea_johanssen @WallStreetMav @ChrisO_wiki I don’t have an example of an European nation asking the US to increase its defense budget, but for many decades they have pleaded with the US to keep troops throughout Europe because it is a deterrent and it’s cheaper than Europe having to build their own equivalent capabilities

@lancemate @bea_johanssen @WallStreetMav @ChrisO_wiki So just because Europeans didn’t ask for it means they didn’t benefit from it? Do you think European nations would have increased their defense budgets if, for the last 30 years, the US had dropped their defense budget to 1.5-2% GDP?

@bea_johanssen @WallStreetMav @ChrisO_wiki Do you really think Americans are claiming they are carrying the burden of European defense because they pay $850M to NATO each year? Or because their $1T defense budget is what deters anyone from even thinking about attacking NATO?

@WallStreetMav @ChrisO_wiki European countries do pay for their own defence. And a significant slice of US defence too. So much for the narrative.

@coherenthinker @clashreport The post didn’t capture the sentiment of what Macron said very well, especially if you’re coming from an American first pov. I think most Americans would agree with what Macron said. America is putting its priorities first; then the pacific; Obama started it; it’s not going back.

@clashreport Why wouldn't America put it's interests first?

French President Macron: We have to be lucid on the US strategy… This is not just Trump’s character or behavior. The United States, I would say, for now 15 years, decided the number one issue is America — America first. The second priority is China… Their strategies just don’t put European interests at the center.

@e1r1k11 @TommyTomahawkV @jaynordlinger It doesn’t mean they can’t cause us problems, they do, but not in the same way. Right or wrong, American’s are beginning to see China the way we did the Soviets. Now that Europe can handle Russia, we can focus on China. But understandably, European’s are worried about Russia.

@e1r1k11 @TommyTomahawkV @jaynordlinger No, it wouldn’t be good. But nobody thinks that would happen. During the Cold War, there was so much propaganda that Americans were terrified of the Soviet’s. But not anymore. They are dangerous, but less so directly to us. Since Ukraine, we see Europe would easily defeat them.

A question for anti-NATO Americans: If NATO is so bad for the United States, why is Putin's Russia so excited about its downfall?