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Eoghan Kelly
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Eoghan Kelly
@eoghankll
Politics Postdoc, Polling London at the Mile End Institute. School governor. Co-founder of https://t.co/7DDBixuZh6. He/Him
Belfast Katılım Haziran 2011
699 Takip Edilen169 Takipçiler
Eoghan Kelly retweetledi
@eoghankll @MileEndInst @QMUL @Savanta_UK When results entered in DevolvedElections.co.uk, run by @eoghankll, it suggested Labour could remain on 11 of 25 London Assembly seats, Tories losing half their eight seats, Reform up three seat to four, Greens up one to four, and Lib-Dems retain two
standard.co.uk/news/politics/…
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Eoghan Kelly retweetledi
Labour in pole position to win 2028 race for London Mayor, new survey reveals standard.co.uk/news/politics/…
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Eoghan Kelly retweetledi
EXCLUSIVE: Labour hits new record low in London with Tories pushed into fourth place behind Greens and Reform, new @Savanta_UK poll for @MileEndInst @QMUL finds standard.co.uk/news/politics/…
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Eoghan Kelly retweetledi
When simulated 1000x the closest constituencies are:
Dumfriesshire,
Edinburgh Central,
East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs,
Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire,
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch, and,
Argyll and Bute
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-proje…
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Eoghan Kelly retweetledi
Our latest Nowcast projection for Scottish Parliament election 2026:
SNP 🎗️ — 63
Lab 🌹 — 18
Ref ➡️ — 17
Con 🌳 — 11
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Alba 🔵 — 0
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
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@EarlofLeuven @dmcbfs We've got the margin of error stuff covered.
devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-projects/
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@dmcbfs Every poll they do moves 1% or less per party.
Inside any margin of error.
But we don't quote them. Or care about how they're obtained. Because LT is apparently all we have to talk about.
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At 25% SF are at risk of losing seats. Likely 2 or 3. No danger of losing largest party status as DUP would also lose seats on this. However, it would be diminished SF/DUP mandate on these figures.
Suzanne Breen@SuzyJourno
EXCLUSIVE: Alliance falls to 5-year low in @LucidTalk poll as DUP, UUP & Greens rise. SF still comfortably ahead but is at 3-year low🧵 🟢SF 25% (-1) 🔶DUP 18% (+1) ⬛️TUV 13% (unchanged from August) 🔷UUP 12% (+1) 🟥SDLP 11% (-) 🟡Alliance 11% (-1) belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/… (1/2)
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Eoghan Kelly retweetledi
A Donegal man was this morning charged with 28 counts of sexual assault against 3 little girls.
They're wrecking Dublin, not Donegal, because none of this mob care how many thousands of women or girls are sexually assaulted if a foreigner isn't involved.
Pathetic bullies.
Conor Lally@conormlally
Garda van up in flames outside the IPAS centre at Citywest. Cowd of well over 500 present. Public Order Unit gardai charged a big group back from centre entrance, pepper spray deployed
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We provide seat ranges for Unionists, Nationalists and Others to see which bloc is likely to come out ahead.
We use a normal distribution of polling errors and add a bit of randomisation to constituency swings.
Most outcomes are sensible, but some require huge misses.
Devolved Election Projections@DevolvedVotes
Want to see the range of possible outcomes at the next NI Assembly election if the polls aren't perfect? We regularly run 1000 simulations to see how likely it is that parties win their target seats. Wales, Scotland and London are in the works. 👉devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-projects/
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Eoghan Kelly retweetledi
We've finalised our Presidential projection with Connolly, Gavin and Humphreys as the only candidates to be nominated.
Play around with transfer rates and first preferences to see who could win!
Presets will be added once polls come in.
irishelections.ie/presidential/
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Eoghan Kelly retweetledi
We've introduced an Irish Presidential Election projection!
Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner.
irishelections.ie/presidential/
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Eoghan Kelly retweetledi
We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection!
It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.
Just click it again for a different scenario.
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-irela…
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Eoghan Kelly retweetledi
Eoghan Kelly retweetledi
going to need someone to paint the UDA as supporters of Palestine Action so the PSNI will act
Sunday Life@TheSundayLife
A UDA gang is warning that it plans to force every immigrant out of the Rathcoole estate in Newtownabbey. belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sunday-life/ne…
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@peterdonaghy They'd cross the effective threshold in a few places and be the last remianing unionist party in others.
(devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-irela…)
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It's wild that the DUP could win 26 seats on 17% of the vote whilst the TUV win one seat with 13%, but it could easily happen.
Suzanne Breen@SuzyJourno
EXCLUSIVE: @LucidTalk poll shows DUP support falling yet again as TUV leapfrogs over Alliance & UUP to become NI's 3rd largest party 🧵 🟢SF 26% (unchanged from May) 🔶DUP 17% (-1) ⬛️TUV 13% (+1) 🟡Alliance 12% (-1) 🟥SDLP 11% (-) 🔷UUP 11% (-1) belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/… (1/2)
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@CharliePDG @charlie_goan @DevolvedVotes @BelTel @LucidTalk Typically, but if the DUP are down 5% overall then they would need a lot more transfers.
This is all just based on one poll. You can fire the numbers (or any others) into the website to see the transfers.
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@eoghankll @charlie_goan @DevolvedVotes @BelTel @LucidTalk But then the UUP plus small amounts of APNI transfers will typically be enough to get the DUP up above the line.
It would be a very unlucky night for the DUP to fall below on the final count.
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A projection based on the latest @BelTel / @LucidTalk poll for NI Assembly ‘27:
☘️ SF — 24
🦁 DUP — 16
🤝 AP — 14
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 10
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 1
⚫ Ind — 1
From @DevolvedVotes
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-irela…
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@CharliePDG @DevolvedVotes @BelTel @LucidTalk Transfers are based on an average from 2022, so the TUV do get very few. On 13% they just don't need them!
The rest is based on this one poll which is good for the UUP, SDLP and TUV (compared to 2022) so SF and DUP seats are getting squeezed most.
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@DevolvedVotes @BelTel @LucidTalk Thankyou for doing this but I don't think you've got the transfers from Nat and Uni voters right.
Gaining 2 Unionists in Newry and Armagh whilst losing down to 1 in North Belfast is very odd.
Also, don't underestimate the ability for the TUV to receive little to no transfers.
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@Choyaa13 @MVMCCU x.com/DevolvedVotes/…
On 13% they'd exceed the *effective* quota in several constituencies so wouldn't need transfers.
Devolved Election Projections@DevolvedVotes
A projection based on the latest @BelTel / @LucidTalk poll for NI Assembly ‘27: ☘️ SF — 24 🦁 DUP — 16 🤝 AP — 14 🔷 UUP — 10 🌹 SDLP — 10 Ⓣ TUV — 12 ✊ PBP — 2 🌱 GP — 1 ⚫ Ind — 1 From @DevolvedVotes devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-irela…
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Not sure this will translate into many seats for the TUV, but one thing is clear: the DUP and UUP aren’t at the races. The DUP has fumbled too many times, lacks leadership, and offers contradictory positions. Few notice the UUP unless it's imploding. Both parties need to change.
Suzanne Breen@SuzyJourno
EXCLUSIVE: @LucidTalk poll shows DUP support falling yet again as TUV leapfrogs over Alliance & UUP to become NI's 3rd largest party 🧵 🟢SF 26% (unchanged from May) 🔶DUP 17% (-1) ⬛️TUV 13% (+1) 🟡Alliance 12% (-1) 🟥SDLP 11% (-) 🔷UUP 11% (-1) belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/… (1/2)
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@BelTel @LucidTalk Overall, it doesn't make a huge amount of difference under STV
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-un…
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Exclusive | Backing for poll alliances strongest among UUP voters, Belfast Telegraph and @LucidTalk study finds belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/… belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/…
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@charlie_goan @DevolvedVotes @BelTel @LucidTalk The biggest thing is that the SDLP are up in this poll (11%) compared to 2022 (9.1%) which is helping them hold on
WT: TUV were only 5.3% behind in 2022, on these numbers that's not safe.
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@DevolvedVotes @BelTel @LucidTalk I couldn't see the SDLP holding East LD. Also would be surprised if the SDLP lost the Mid Ulster seat. Highly unlikely the TUV would pick up in WT unless DUP incumbent retires and the TUV candidate is more high profile.
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