Dioooo
115 posts


@jukan05 @mindmoon_108 那对我们中国投资者比较友好,再加上长鑫和华为、新凯莱(非上市)的矛盾,设备订单可以进一步向北方华创这些上市公司集中
中文

주칸님의 골드만삭스 전문가 콜을 보고
1. 메모리 부족으로 과거 20~30%씩 붙던 중국산 디스카운트가 사라졌다.
2. 27년에 진전이 있을거라는 3D DRAM은 Cell-Peri Bonding인 PoC 구조일 것이다.
(YMTC가 해본 경험 있음)
3.중국은 노광장비인 DUV 제외 거의 국산화를 이루었다.(HARC ETCH도..??)
장비 국산화는 수준급인줄알았는데 DUV 제외 자급자족이면 진짜 빠르네요.
국내 장비사들은 앞으로 중국시장 매출은 어렵겠는데요.
Jukan@jukan05
A few noteworthy takeaways from Goldman Sachs’ expert call with a Chinese DRAM industry expert: - The expert believes Chinese suppliers’ DRAM prices are comparable to those of global leaders, despite their potentially lower yields. - Chinese DRAM makers could make further progress in 3D DRAM product development in 2027. - Capacity expansions underway in Hefei, Shanghai, and Beijing are expected to be fully operational by 2028. - Some fabs reportedly use mostly domestically produced Chinese equipment, except for high-end tools such as lithography systems.
한국어

A few noteworthy takeaways from Goldman Sachs’ expert call with a Chinese DRAM industry expert:
- The expert believes Chinese suppliers’ DRAM prices are comparable to those of global leaders, despite their potentially lower yields.
- Chinese DRAM makers could make further progress in 3D DRAM product development in 2027.
- Capacity expansions underway in Hefei, Shanghai, and Beijing are expected to be fully operational by 2028.
- Some fabs reportedly use mostly domestically produced Chinese equipment, except for high-end tools such as lithography systems.
English

B站up主章北海official分析 #散帅 一词为何被封杀的此视频👇已在墙内被封杀下架🙈😅😅
墙国蛙哈哈🐸@GFWfrog
B站up主章北海official上传了锐评国安部指控境外势力教唆中国青年躺平的视频,获近百万播放,随后视频因某不可抗力惨遭移除🤔🤔 下面是视频被移除前,满弹幕的备份版本👇
中文

上半年一堆媒体标题在刷,中国创新药出海狂揽997亿美元,翻了2024全年一倍。散户看完第一反应是,中国药企技术碾压全球了,997亿真金白银到账,赶紧上车。
你要真信这997亿是到手的钱,那就已经准备当那个吃亏的人了。
这997亿是交易总额,英文叫deal size。它是把首付款,加上未来十几年所有研发里程碑款,加上注册里程碑款,加上销售里程碑款,再加上销售提成,全部加满以后的最高数字。真正当下确定要到账的,只有首付款那一小块,通常占总额的2%到5%。
拿两个最新的单子给你算。
石药集团和阿斯利康那单,公告写185亿美元,天价大单。首付款只有12亿,占6.5%。剩下的是最高35亿研发里程碑,加最高138亿销售里程碑,加提成。标的是8个减重长效多肽,多数还在临床前。
恒瑞医药和BMS那单更离谱。公告写152亿美元,现在真正确定要付的只有6亿,加上两笔周年付款各1.75亿,确定性付款合计9.5亿。差25倍。剩下146亿全押在13个还没进临床的项目上,赌它们未来十几年一路连闯成功。
那有人说,里程碑款迟早会拿到。
大概率拿不到。里程碑是或有付款,绝大多数熬不到那一天。SRS Acquiom的数据,临床前阶段的里程碑大概55%能兑现,到临床三期只剩12%,到商业化阶段只有5%。再叠加退货,2020年那批62起license-out,已经有约40%被终止。2021到2022年签的,还维持约20%的终止率。买方战略一变,临床数据一不达标,交易在触发里程碑之前就清零了。
真兑现是什么样。百利天恒和BMS那单总额84亿美元,到2025年末累计确认约16亿,不足五分之一,这还算跑得快的。
再说股价。散户默认发公告等于利好等于该涨,跟着买。可市场自己都不一定买账。石药那个185亿的天价大单,公告当天港股反而跌了约10%。单日下跌的原因未必只有一个,但至少市场没把185亿当成185亿的利好,聪明钱看的是首付6.5%,不是标题的185亿。
药企公告的惯例就是只报最高潜在总额,淡化首付占比。散户按总额画的那张饼,和真实到手之间的价差,谁进场谁承担。
997亿这个数,看看就好。
中文

恶意占用他人产权车位的彭女士被扒出是长沙体育局副处长,2023入职,工作两年就当处长,果然能量巨大。
彭女士不仅擅自占用他人车位多日,留虚假电话,撒谎自己出差,还恶人先告状两次报警,她身上那股优越感和蛮横劲让人非常不爽。
最终车位业主忍无可忍,用U型管围车维权,并表示不需要索赔,只需要当面道歉。
随后同小区其他业主纷纷自发张贴“车位有主”等字条进行声援。
双方僵持很久,彭女士态度恶劣,甚至要求车位业主和她道歉(因为擅自用U型管堵住她的车),没想到破坏规则者理直气壮,守规则的人维权困难。
最终在社区11个多小时的调解下女车主选择道歉,车位业主撤下U型管放行。
此前有人在评论区劝告车位业主:“女方后台很硬,你想象不到的硬”



中文

CHINA CONSIDERS RESTRICTING OVERSEAS ACCESS TO CUTTING-EDGE AI MODELS
China’s Ministry of Commerce has led meetings over the past month with major AI companies, including Alibaba, ByteDance, and Z.ai, to discuss measures that would restrict overseas access to cutting-edge AI models, including models that have not yet been released.
The discussions reportedly include not only closed-source models but also open-weight models. However, the scope of application is still under debate, and the rules may ultimately apply only to future frontier models.
Officials have also discussed designating the leakage or theft of proprietary AI technologies as a national security crime, with stronger penalties, as well as restricting the types of foreign capital that can invest in Chinese AI startups.
The backdrop is the U.S. move to strengthen export controls on AI models, along with national security concerns over cutting-edge models that could possess advanced cyberattack capabilities.
Chinese authorities are reportedly concerned that advanced U.S. cybersecurity AI models could be used to exploit vulnerabilities in Chinese software.
Since the beginning of this year, China has continued to tighten measures to prevent AI technology from being transferred overseas. Authorities have investigated whether Chinese AI startups that relocated abroad violated export control laws, while also strengthening oversight of overseas transactions involving Chinese investors, technology, data, and national security concerns.
Future regulations could take the form of a tiered framework based on technological capability. Basic open-source AI models may be managed through a filing system, high-performance models may be subject to security reviews, and the most sensitive frontier models may be banned from public release or restricted to use within China.
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