D!pak P@tel

Here is my $SOFI exposure for the next year: I remain optimistic on three core elements about the stock: - overly shorted - has a 3-year base around $6-$8 - rate cuts will a tailwind for lending I am a bit more cautious on the tech side of the business, mainly because I just don’t know much about it and they don’t seem to discuss it as much publicly, but I do think if that adds momentum, then the “aws of fintech” narrative can be strong for them. I am also a bit cautious about their product focus on the SOFI app itself, however I also realize that the investing app is insignificant to their top and bottom line. I do think it is significant in terms of broader user experience to build out the ecosystem of product adoption, but in terms of the actual numbers needed to see more growth, my cautions over the functionality of the product probably don’t matter much. As a result, this is the trade I entered into a few weeks ago when $SOFI was around $7.50: 100 call debit spreads for Jan 2026 with a $15 long call and $20 short call. The premium from the sold $20 call offset the premium on the long call, leading me to pay a net debit of $0.35 a share, or $35 a contract, so a total of $3500 for 100 contracts. If $SOFI goes to $20, this $3500 will be worth $50K, so a 14x return. Because it is a spread, if it goes to $20 any time before Jan 2026, the full value of the spread wont appreciate, so I will have to hold this closer to expiration to recognize the value. So now the question becomes, can $SOFI get to $20 in a year? I’m not sure. The good thing about this strategy is that the pricing is so asymmetric that a move towards $12-$15 can also materially move the value higher and I can capture that appreciation up front without having to wait for $20. I know that Noto has incentives to get to $25 by 2026 as well for his PSUs. To me, given I understand this company decently well (by no means better than most people doing DD on it) I am comfortable taking a $3500 bet. If we get a violent breakout with shorts covering and rate cuts being an aggressive tailwind, then I think there is more upside than downside in 2025 and this strategy should give me strong asymmetric exposure. If I had bought shares with the $3500, even at $7, I’d have 500 shares. If we got to $20, that $3500 would be worth $10,000. Good return, but the options here obviously have a more meaningful risk/reward…but ONLY because a move from $7 to $20 would be very difficult and the odds are not in my favor. I also have some $7 calls that I’ll be exiting later this year but this strategy will be my main position to get exposure to $SOFI in 2025.