•Charlie Moon• 🌖’s 💰 Trades Ⓜ️Ⓜ️T

So it begins... I rarely give this much conviction to anything let alone disclose this publically. This maybe your one shot to get in on this sector at or near the ground floor. I do believe it will be the last time I say to a client that you have time on your side.

The video that got the Supermicro cofounder arrested

🤯

🫥

Private credit’s investor exodus is spreading to consumer loans, according to WSJ Interval fund Stone Ridge Asset Management, which holds consumer loans made by $XYZ and $AFRM are apparently under stress due to redemption requests Stone Ridge honoring 11% redemption requests $XYZ, $AFRM selling off on the article

INVESTOR ALERT 🚨: Investors should never rely solely on information from group chats in making investment decisions. Be wary of any group chat where you receive investment advice from someone you don’t know – this is often how scams begin. ow.ly/upFW50Ytysa

The upcoming CPO / Silicon Photonics Bottleneck Cheat Sheet: $SIVE, Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, $MTSI, $AAOI - Light Source (CW DFB Lasers) $TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $TSM, $INTC - SiPh foundry $NOK, $CIEN, $CSCO, $COHR - DCO $HIMX, FOCI (3363.TWO) - Micro-lens + Fiber Arrays $POET - Optical Interposers $SOI, $AXTI, Shin-Etsu - Substrates $FN, $ASX, Innolight, Eoptolink - Optical Packaging and Assembly $MTSI, $SMTC, $MRVL, $MXL - Analog/Mixed-Signal ICs $LWLG - Speculative Modulator Materials. $GLW, $APH, $TEL, $FIT, Fujikura - Connectors and Fibers $FORM, $KEYS, $VIAV, $AEHR- Test & Measurement $BESI, $SMHN, $ONTO, $CAMT - Advanced Packaging & Hybrid Bonding Many are private companies from Lightmatter, Ayar, Ranovus and others. Now... Everyone is asking... How do you profit? If you look at the forecast for CPO TAM, it's a straight line up, and next year is inflection point for CPO mass deployment. The alpha is capturing the rotation: From the current EML bottlenecks ( $LITE, $COHR type) to SiPh / CW DFB architectural winners for CPO. Highest upside potential are the ones that aren't included in current cycles. But that are in the next. Companies like $SOI, $SIVE, or $AEHR are perfect examples. Ride the current pluggable bottleneck like $AAOI. But the alpha is frontrunning institutions with the next CPO bottleneck. The capital rotation is inevitable.

I dropped the red on bitcoin back in Jan. @DiscipleofTrend said go for $CRCL weeks ago. $COIN also looking solid. what about $MSTR and $BMRN?? @ProsperTrading

Legendary CME floor trader, Lewis Borsellino believes successful traders share one thing in common: a specific personality type. “If you went to work all week and your boss said, ‘yeah, you did a good job this week, but I can't pay you.’ How long would you do that job for?” “Trading is one of the only professions where you can work hard… Do everything right…And still make no money for weeks.” That’s why most people quit. Most people can’t be traders. Not because they’re not smart. But because they can’t handle loss. The question is simple: Can you keep showing up anyway?

$SWMR is now up 450% from its $5 IPO price.

@madmax875 @chrismartenson @ericnuttall Not a fucking chance. Also makes sense this was quoted from FT.

@chrismartenson @ericnuttall Jesus. Imagine thr US Treasury caught in a short squeeze. @DiscipleofTrend

Global oil production is now down 9mm bbl/d and flows down ~15mm bbl/d. Oil at $95 does not come remotely close to reflecting this reality, and things are getting exponentially worse with each passing day. Is there an “invisible hand” at play?

This is wild. 143 million people thought they were catching Pokémon. They were actually building one of the largest real-world visual datasets in AI history. Niantic just disclosed that photos and AR scans collected through Pokémon Go have produced a dataset of over 30 billion real-world images. The company is now using that data to power visual navigation AI for delivery robots. Players didn't just walk around with their phones. They scanned landmarks, storefronts, parks, and sidewalks from every angle, at every time of day, in lighting and weather conditions that staged photography would never capture. They documented the physical world at a scale no mapping company with a fleet of vehicles could have replicated on the same timeline or budget. Niantic collected this systematically, data point by data point, across eight years, while users thought the only thing at stake was catching a rare Charizard. The most valuable AI training datasets in the world aren't being assembled in data centers. They're being built by people who have no idea they're building them.

#FF 🙌

@t3live @itzstockchartz @RedDogT3 @epictrades1 @KirasEpicTrades @CrankyRicky @PicardTrades @AmCapTrader @GretaLWall @SIBOptionPro @ProsperTrading @Andy__Moss @TWPTrade 🙏❤️🙏❤️

#FF Follow the gang! Get Scott Redler's newsletter Monday morning: t3live.com/rd @itzstockchartz @RedDogT3 @epictrades1 @KirasEpicTrades @CrankyRicky @picardtrades @AmCapTrader @GretaLWall @SIBOptionPro @prospertrading @DiscipleofTrend @Andy__Moss @TWPTrade @WOLF_Financial @The_RockTrading @Gino_Vlntino @vwaptrader1 @AllxDayxRayx @armyguynyc @trendspider @MomAngtrades @MightySoldiers @javicharts @1991Wolfpack @koyfman @KoyfinCharts @Jake__Wujastyk @theresa_perrin @izzyonit @SpencerParsons0 @Star_WSB @MazeOrBowie @Satoshisview @CraigMiera @candicemoh1 @ProDeskVTF @izzyonit @ronald_rhd64 @alphatrends @basso_tom @Robinson_Ortiz_ @relentlesswrx @AkilStokesRTM @TedHZhang @AlmanacTrader @blondebroker1

Me: What’s your take on Japan in this environment with oil prices rising so quickly? Millennium PM: I actually think a reverse yen carry trade could be on the cards. Me: That’s a big call. What’s the mechanism? Millennium PM: It starts with oil. Japan imports almost all of its energy. When oil prices rise sharply, Japan’s trade deficit widens immediately because the import bill jumps. Me: Which weakens the yen. Millennium PM: Exactly. A larger trade deficit puts downward pressure on the JPY, and once the yen weakens the situation actually worsens because oil is priced in USD. So a weaker yen means Japan effectively pays more for the same barrel of oil in yen terms. Me: So the currency depreciation amplifies imported inflation. Millennium PM: Right. First you get energy inflation, then it spreads through transportation, electricity, and eventually broader consumer prices. At some point the risk becomes a wage–price spiral, which is something Japan has tried to avoid for decades. Me: But the Bank of Japan can’t control oil prices. Millennium PM: True, but they can control the currency channel. If imported inflation keeps worsening because the yen weakens further, the BoJ may be forced to hike rates — not to fight oil directly, but to defend the yen and keep inflation expectations anchored. Me: And that’s where the carry trade problem begins. Millennium PM: Exactly. The entire yen carry trade depends on ultra-low Japanese funding costs. If the BoJ raises rates, even modestly, it undermines the economics of borrowing yen to fund higher-yielding assets abroad. Me: Which means positions start getting unwound. Millennium PM: Yes. Once the carry starts reversing, capital flows back into yen funding markets and leveraged investors are forced to reduce exposure. Those unwinds rarely stay contained — they tend to create volatility across global equities, commodities, and emerging markets. Me: So rising oil could indirectly trigger a global carry unwind. Millennium PM: Exactly. Oil → wider trade deficit → weaker yen → imported inflation → BoJ forced to hike → carry trade reversal. That’s the chain reaction I’m watching.

😩

“Our fund’s performance remains strong”, but we can’t meet the redemption requests. Wow.

*MORGAN STANLEY LIMITS REDEMPTIONS ON PRIVATE CREDIT FUND

this is a disaster *CLIFFWATER $33 BLN PRIVATE CREDIT FUND Q1 REDEMPTIONS REACH 14% And Cliffwater is interval, meaning it is not permitted to impose gates

Pierre Andurand, best known for his high conviction bets on the oil market, made money (6%) last week as the war in Iran caused huge swings in commodities. So far: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

BREAKING 🚨: JP Morgan $JPM forced to mark downs loans and has decided to reduce lending to private credit groups 🤯 Blue Owl, Blackstone, BlackRock, now JP Morgan 👀