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ITR🅰️DER
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ITR🅰️DER
@DoYouKnowTiming
Small-cap theme trader. Nuclear, Space, Solar. I trade narratives before they become consensus. Research over noise. Conviction over leverage.
Katılım Ekim 2024
247 Takip Edilen136 Takipçiler
ITR🅰️DER retweetledi


@retail_mourinho What's the relation btw $ASTS and AI bubble lmao
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This is how the story usually goes.
Notice how on this Thursday breakdown of earnings, $UNH is nothing but a footnote?
That's because stock is back at $425 vs. $265.
This time last year, it would be the #1 emphasized earnings that day. Despite the fact that company is just as relevant now as then.
Which overdramatized sell-offs this year will look like that next year? Where their share prices recover, so no one focuses on their earnings anymore?

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有人给我发了这个,虽然大家现在慢慢知道 @Franktradinglog 是个SB了,但貌似还有人相信他P图出来的收益率。
这个Frank,原名摩卡星冰乐,是个满嘴谎言的骗子,我曾经写过一篇文章(在评论区)说他P图收益率的事情,那个一年50倍,只是骗韭菜交会员费而已。

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ITR🅰️DER retweetledi
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ITR🅰️DER retweetledi

$ASTS Update
First of all, no current position in the stock.
My general thoughts are pretty consistent with what I've said previously. I think the price has gotten in-line with/ahead of its fundamental business value (not fundamental financials, because those are largely irrelevant).
What do I think it's worth as a business?
Scenario A — Company is not very successful, gets $500M–$1B/year in revenues either due to market competition/constraints/etc. Company worth $3–10B.
Scenario B — Company attains most of its technical goals, gets $2–5B/year in revenues. Company worth $20–30B.
Scenario C — Company does very well, $10B/year in revenues. Company worth $30–80B.
Scenario D — Company exceeds expectations, $50B/year in revenues. Company worth $250–500B.
I like the prospects of (B) or (C) happening, and I've thought that ever since the stock was $6. I read the real-time stream of spacemob tweets, and I can see the path to D slowly forming, but I have no confidence in MY ability to forecast whether the company has a 2% or 25% chance of making that happen.
Considering the current fully diluted market cap is around $35B (use an average rolling price, since any given week it moves around 25%), and given that $10B+ of revenues is, in my opinion, at least 3 years away, I don't really know why I'd hold a significant position in the stock. A lot of unknowns still need to work out for B/C to happen, let alone D.
Yes, you can play the game of "the multiple will obviously be higher," but that's not a game I play.
Also consider that my personal strategy is to look for stuff that is contrarian in nature: overlooked, under-appreciated. Those aren't the characteristics of ASTS anymore.
Plus, a common comment is that staying on top of ASTS's fundamental developments was a full-time job on its own. I agree with that sentiment, and I think my time is better spent following stuff that has less "action" than ASTS.
Obviously this is not financial advice, and to be clear, this doesn't mean I don't like the company or stock. I barely have a position in Sphere anymore and that's been my darling for years. Sometimes you just gotta let the little ones grow up and fly the coop! I'll revisit if the stock price or fundamental developments change materially.
Disclosure: No Position in ASTS
Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds may hold positions in securities discussed. Views expressed are current opinions for informational educational only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future performance. See the disclosures link above for more important information.
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