FaTs

@StkCryptoTrd @grok @gnoble79 I’m more confident in copper than any other metal (percentage rise)

@DoctaFats @grok @gnoble79 Yep me too. $COPPER has not done a parabolic move but it will.

THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ JUST HANDED YOU THE TRADE OF THE DECADE And most investors are looking in completely the wrong direction. Brent crude closed above $103 on Friday. Up nearly 40% since the strikes began on February 28. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down. Insurance companies have canceled war risk coverage. Over 150 ships are stranded. Tanker traffic has collapsed to near zero. The IEA just called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude and product flows have been choked off. The US is scrambling. The IEA coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest such action ever. Trump ordered emergency insurance for tankers. The Navy was told to begin escort operations. But behind closed doors, Navy officials told tanker executives there's currently NO availability for escorts. And no guarantees there will be. Iran holds the upper hand. And the market knows it. But here's why this matters far beyond the oil price: What we're witnessing is the EMification of America in real time. The US launched strikes in the middle of nuclear negotiations. The executive branch has been attacking central bank independence. Budget deficits are running at levels historically associated with emerging market economies. Erratic policymaking. Massive fiscal deficits. Judicial interference with monetary policy. These are EMERGING MARKET characteristics, and yet the US equity market still carries a premium developed market valuation. That premium is evaporating. Emerging markets returned 33% in 2025. The S&P 500 returned 17%. Almost DOUBLE the outperformance. And 2026 is accelerating the trend. Here's what the consensus is missing: EM macro is BETTER than developed market macro right now. Budget deficits as a percent of GDP? Lower in EM. Debt levels? Lower. Inflation? Lower. Forecasted earnings growth? HIGHER. EM earnings are expected to grow 21% to 29% this year versus 13% to 14% for the U.S. Brazilian equities are trading at roughly 9 times CAPE earnings. About HALF where they traded during the last EM rally in 2018. And the positioning is absurd: US institutional investors have essentially not owned China since Trump 1.0. Most portfolio managers working today weren't even in the business the last time EM led, which was 2001 to 2008. Everyone is out of position. Now layer in commodities: The digital eats the physical. Without copper, silicon, aluminum, and power, there IS no AI. Full stop. And fossil fuels and renewables are rallying AT THE SAME TIME. That tells you the world has a massive power demand problem that isn't going away. Oil above $100. Gold above $4,600. Silver above $85. Copper near all-time highs. The commodity super-cycle is confirming itself in real time. The Iran conflict just poured gasoline on it. Now here's the setup: Emerging market equities, China and Latin America in particular. Commodities across the board. Energy, industrial metals, precious metals. And what to avoid? Long-duration developed market sovereign debt. Overweight positions in the Mag 7, priced for a world where everything goes right and nothing disrupts the AI spending fantasy. Leadership batons in global markets shift in multi-year cycles. The US led from 2009 through 2024. 15 years. Now we're in the early innings of a multi-year rotation into emerging markets and commodities. The flows follow the performance. The performance follows the earnings. And the earnings are now better in EM than in the US. At a fraction of the valuation. With better macro fundamentals. And almost nobody owns it. This is the trade.

@HawkEmDownChris Kelly Gruber

Age yourself by naming an MLB third baseman you grew up watching. I’ll start: Chipper Jones.

@StkCryptoTrd @grok @gnoble79 I’ve been in precious metals for years.

You realize AI Metals $SILVER $COPPER have been correcting. Thus you are around 4 months too late. After they go down more they’ll surely go back up and that’s when I’ll add to my positions. Idon’t trust China stocks beyond day trading them and $MELI $NU are bottom fishing. Just dreadful awful stocks.

@grok @gnoble79 But exit. MAG7? @grok

No, not stupid at all. The core thesis—US fiscal/policy chaos eroding its DM premium, EM's superior earnings growth (21-29% vs US 13-14%), lower deficits/debt/inflation, and cheap valuations (e.g. Brazil ~9x CAPE)—holds regardless. Hormuz is just rocket fuel on the commodity supercycle (AI needs copper/power/fuels). Quick resolution drops oil fast, sure, but multi-year EM rotation and physical commodity demand don't vanish. Track de-escalation signals and flows.

@grok @gnoble79 @grok so if the war is done this month and the straight is fully reopened, this thesis is kinda stupid then, no?

Not stupid. Solid thesis: Hormuz shutdown (real, since Feb 28 strikes) has choked ~20M bpd, spiking Brent to $103+ and confirming commodity supercycle amid AI's physical demands (copper, power). US fiscal/ policy chaos echoes EM traits, eroding its premium—while EM delivered 34% in '25 vs S&P's 18%, with 2026 earnings growth ~2x higher at half the valuation. Multi-year rotation to China/LatAm equities + commodities makes sense; avoid long US debt/Mag7 concentration. Risks: quick de-escalation could reverse oil spike. Track flows.

@grok @gnoble79 @grok What are your thoughts on this opinion? Stupid?

Strait of Hormuz shutdown spikes oil to $103+ (40% surge), biggest supply disruption ever, with 20M bpd choked off. US shows EM traits: deficits, policy chaos, eroding DM premium. EM equities (China/LatAm) & commodities outperform with better growth/valuations. Multi-year rotation from US/Mag7 to EM & super-cycle in energy/metals; avoid long US debt. (48 words)

@MarkJCarney Stealing our democracy, one bribe at a time. Shame on you all.

Welcome to the team, Lori.

@HawkEmDownChris Lebron

Without googling, name an athlete who played for at least 3 teams.

@HawkEmDownChris Bill Laimbeer

Age yourself by naming an NBA center you grew up watching. I’ll start: Shaquille O’Neal.

@HawkEmDownChris Jack Morris

Age yourself by naming a MLB pitcher you grew up watching. I’ll start: Clayton Kershaw.

Really feels like the market has bottomed. $QQQ $SPY $BTC #BTC

@HawkEmDownChris Damon Stoudamire

Age yourself by naming an NBA point guard you grew up watching. I’ll start: Jason Kidd.

@ericjackson They will do none of this. Same leaders - same mentality. Without a change at the top, there will be no change anywhere else.

Canada's GDP per capita was 94% of America's in 1981. Today it's 67%. The widest gap since World War II. Ontario — Canada's economic engine — is now poorer than 43 US states. Including Louisiana and Alabama. This isn't a blip. It's a generational collapse. Here's the data: From 2017-2024, US productivity grew 10.1%. Canada's fell 0.6%. America is sprinting. Canada is walking backwards. 71% of Waterloo software engineering grads leave for the US. The brain drain damage threshold is 20%. Canada is at 3x the red line. Israel spends 6.35% of GDP on R&D. The US spends 3.4%. Canada spends 1.7%. That's not a gap. That's a different species. Canada's pension funds hold $2.6 trillion. Only 13% is invested in Canada. 47% is in the US. Even Canada's own money doesn't believe in Canada. Net FDI position: negative $1 trillion. Capital is fleeing the country faster than Waterloo grads. 72% of Canadian entrepreneurs start businesses because "jobs are scarce." Not opportunity. Survival. Canadian workers get 30 cents of IP investment for every $1 an American worker gets. You can't out-innovate anyone with 30-cent tools. The average Canadian spends 48% of their income on a mortgage. The average American: 34%. Canadians work to pay for houses. Americans work to build companies. None of this is about laziness. Canadians are talented. The system is broken. Zero income tax. Business-friendly regulation. Speed of execution. That's Dubai. That's Singapore. That's what "Dubai of the North" means. Canada has everything — talent, resources, geography, rule of law. What it doesn't have is a system that rewards building. Fix the tax code. Kill the red tape. Stop subsidizing real estate. Start subsidizing R&D. The talent is there. The capital will follow.

Canadian media whining about Auston Matthews meeting with his President. Nobody seems to care Justin Trudeau dumped his wife for a young American though.

@velstrad24 @grok what did his sign say?

Democratic U.S. Rep. Al Green was escorted from the House floor after refusing to sit during President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address and holding up a sign. Follow: @velstrad24

@DarinWallace13 Uplisting to NYSE not Nasdaq, FYI.

$QNC $QNCCF NASDAQ debut tomorrow!!!🔥🔥🔥🔥 $ETH $XRP

@DarinWallace13 Been in it forever lol. Hoping for continued success with the new set of investors and funds that will be allowed to buy it now.

@DoctaFats QNCCF 🔥🔥🔥NASDAQ uplisting tomorrow!!! Get in it’s not too late!! ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/ue…

If you understand what $IREN does and where AI is going in the next several years, you’ll know just how much a gift this stock is at current price. This is not a stock to be traded. This is a buy and hold.

@mukund Don’t worrie. All iz forgivven.

I have typos in my Twiter posts, because I write them on the phone mosttimes. It's just not worth my time to get it perfect. most times I am trying to just say something that's on my mind or I will "speak" using Apple mic and it gets from voice to text. So I apologises for the typos. But that's just me. I keep saying this every 3-4 months and I still get comments complaining about my typos. I know it irks people. I know it makes you think I am "stupid" for bad grammar or poor spelling. I apologize fro that. Maybe I am stupid