Don

@golf52 @MelbunMan @GetOn78 They are absolutely not leading anyone astray in purpose, nor are the blokes on sky that have an association with TAB. Many people seem to come to that conclusion from these posts and it’s simply not true.

@MelbunMan @GetOn78 Absolutely pathetic! Zerafa, in particular, couldn’t pick his own nose. Makes one wonder if these blokes are on pay day loans! Or, are they leading us all astray on purpose??

Some more of @GetOn78 crew. This format was a new innovation this week.

@Page1991Adam @TravTurf Just the reaction to a May GC win like… I know we want new blood all the time but far out we just had Private Harry as a precautionary tale did we not ?

Not saying he’s winning The Everest. I’m saying he should get a slot and there’s no reason why he can’t run second, even third, to KYR. I love Jimmy and Joliestar, but one looks meh atm and the other will be fresh off Royal Ascot. Rothfire won the 10,000. TNE and Guest House look next in line, but am more keen on TNE

The obvious target is the Coolmore...but he has to get an Everest slot first and go there

@TravTurf @Page1991Adam Are we all not carrying on a little bit here or what?

@Page1991Adam To run at best 2nd......and make it harder to win the Coolmore? Can't see the appeal this year to run him.

@MitchellBazley @MitchG57351992 Uncommon James: No. Another Wil: yes at his best but has been cast for a year Private Eye and Rothfire: yes in their prime but are both 8yo now and I’d say most wouldn’t consider them genuine grp1 horses anymore.

@MitchG57351992 Private Eye, Uncommon James, Another Wil and Rothfire aren't genuine Group 1 horses?

Anyone taking $2.60 for Jimmy needs to have a good hard look at themselves. Absolute poison odds imo. Wait until the Kingsford Smith I'd say.

@joekirley Barring major injury I think they will. Also balls deep for them to win the flag, top 2 important because they’ll be very hard to beat over there this year. Fun team to watch

@DonsRacing Assuming Freo go top 4 he has to get it

Luke Jackson carry job in full steam

@Bens_Betting Jeez Sicily made it a sweat for no reason haha

How about that for a Thursday night fillup??? 🤑🤑🤑 ✅ Freo ML @$1.71 ✅ Sicily u23.5 disp @$1.80 ❌ Amon u23.5 disp @$1.90 ✅ Macdonald u21.5 disp @$1.80 ✅ Moore u19.5 disp @$1.80 ✅ Bolton u23.5 disp @$1.95 ✅ Reid u23.5 disp @$1.80

@Bens_Betting That Sicily line is huge !

And now based on that, here’s the guys I’m fading tonight: 1.5u - Freo ML @$1.71 (PB) 1.25u - Sicily u23.5 disp @$1.80 (PB) 0.75u - Amon u23.5 disp @$1.90 (PB) 0.75u - Macdonald u21.5 disp @$1.80 (PB) 0.75u - Moore u19.5 disp @$1.80 (PB) 0.75u - Bolton u23.5 disp @$1.95 (PB) 0.2u - Dabble Pick’em 6.5x

@Damion23 Lloyd has kicked at least 1 in 3 out of his last 4 and is probably suited to the high scoring fast paced game expected today

Hate backing unders on anything kills the fun in watching games but gee surely that hits? *not on it just pointing it out

@BetsniperAUS Are these projections purely on historical data or does it consider DVP, etc

Projections are loving JMac and Blakey today!

@nathrobinson07 Feels like the best bet of the round. Look at his home/away record. One of the biggest discrepancies over a large sample size I’ve ever seen. Averages like 26 at home and 21 away over past couple years

📉Jordan Clark u26.5 Has gone under in 4/7 games, only going over vs West Coast, Richmond and Collingwood, with the most disposals he’s had in a game this year being 27. He only hit in 29% of games last year, 30% in 2024. It’s priced above his average because of the perceived ‘soft matchup’, whereas in reality, yes the dogs allow disposals to defenders, but when it comes to players like Clark, guys deemed ‘ball users’, it’s actually not that soft. In fact, i have them rated as the 5th toughest matchup for ball users. So i’m happy to play here

💰DOGS VS FREO BETTING CARD Showdown bets will be posted very shortly and i might have a couple more bets for this game dropping throughout the day 1.25u Lachie Bramble u20.5 Disposals (1.77 PB) 1u Jordan Clark u26.5 Disposals (1.87 PB/SB) 1u Voss > West Goal H2H (1.77 Lads) Reasoning ⬇️

@nathrobinson07 Gone to 23.5

📉Kane Farrell u22.5 Took his overs last week when Marshall pulled out late, and Farrell cashed comfortably. That was at 20.5. Now he sees a bigger line and Marshall is over his illness, back in the lineup, so i’ll just back the unders. Farrell averages 18.0 disposals w/ Marshall (4 games) , whereas with Marshall out, his disposal avg spikes to 24.3 (3 games). His best game with Marshall this year, was his 20 disposals game vs St Kilda, which is when Marshall got swung forward late and Farrell had 7 touches in the last quarter. It was also against St Kilda, who are always a great matchup for defenders. Love this spot

💰AFL POWER VS CROWS BETTING CARD 1.5u Kane Farrell u22.5 Disposals (1.93 SB) 1u Aliir Aliir u16.5 Disposals (1.83 PB) Reasoning ⬇️

Might have to mute “Royal Ascot” for a few days after each time Ka Ying Rising runs. Between racing and cricket, is there a more insufferable country when it comes to sport? 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

@panadol717 @jakksynn @BradKlibansky Are you fucking serious the bloke has been lauded all year haha

@jakksynn @BradKlibansky yea but don’t see anyone talking abt murphy, bro is the best under 20 year old in the league by universes

Jason Horne-Francis needs more ❤️ from the footy world! He is ✈️ this season. JHF is averaging 23 possessions, 6 marks, 5 clearances and 1.6 goals a game 💪 Last 3 games ⬇️ 🤩 Round 7 v Geelong: 34 disp (18 contested). 12 clearances. 9 score involvements. 6 marks. 4 tackles. 4 inside 50’s. 1.1 Round 6 v Hawthorn: 28 disp.7 tackles. 7 marks. 4 inside 50’s. 2.2 Round 5 v St Kilda: 26 disp. 8 score involvements. 7 clearances. 5 marks. 2.2 Still only 22 years old and will only get better. It’s early days, but he’s looking like he will be in the All-Australian mix this season.

@aflratings_FS @aflratings On face value, but he’s had 7 touches and 3 goals when the game was over

A big night for Chad Warner.. @aflratings_FS

@bags_pump Had one with 30 seconds left to go over, 16 disposal second half. You’re right though, no such thing as a gift

@DonsRacing That hurts. I guess there's no such thing as a gift!

Absolute gift of a disposal line of 24.5 (Pointsbet) for Ryley Sanders with Ed Richards back in this week. Hammer the unders. Will lose extra CBAs from last week and the Hawks are a tough matchup regardless. Can’t believe this line is still there.

@DustinSpriggs4 Jesus.. 6 months for the receipt. Ka Ching

Imagine taking a horse off someone over ear muffs. #IdleFlyer

@davepband Alan has proven to be straight up no good at the caper for a while now, with an extremely glass jaw to go with it.

There is so much in Alan's article that is right. The challenge in front of ratings analysts or teams that factor times is massive, and Alan has done a great job of listing the obstacles these analysts must overcome. The amount of infrastructure and framework required to use overall and sectional times safely and effectively is massive - and would be mind blowing to those who haven't been down that path. But there's also so much in that article that is just flat out incorrect. Experienced and well-regarded times analysts will account for all of these obstacles with using times and the final product will be sophisticated ratings that outperform weight-only handicapping - at least in a predictive sense. Everyone does it differently, and some to a higher degree of accuracy than others and this is what makes for differing opinions and vibrant betting markets. The biggest players in betting markets worldwide have times and sectionals driven features weighted prominently in their models, and these players shape the market and the starting price. This is not to say edges cannot be found by taking contrarian views - they can - but over large samples, the SP deciders reign supreme, and we know that they highly value time analysis. To suggest that a rating that does not factor time could be done to within 0.4L of true (and unquestioned) accuracy is complete madness, and each of Alan's attempts to highlight error/risk in using time-based ratings makes the flawed assertion that the amount of error of each component would always be compounding (adding to any previous error). Every single model is wrong. Some are more wrong than others. For example, when faced with a decision to rate a 7 length maiden winner and without being able to use times or sectionals in this calculation, an analyst would be presented with a range of possibilities of how the winner and the beaten horses should be rated, and no real objective way of resolving it that doesn't carry an extreme risk of error. Did the beaten horses run to their form? Did the winner run to its form, or the class weight expectation? Let's also not forget that official margins use times (often poorly) and cannot be relied on. Good times analysts will make their own beaten margins using verified times. There's also Alan's assertion that overall times are no good but sectionals are ok for ratings. But overall times cannot be used effectively without sectional times, and that is already well understood by good times analysts. So to say that sectionals are important but overall times are not isn't a well considered statement. Overall times are also the sum of the parts, and the parts tell you very nicely (when timed accurately) how the overall time was achieved. And the quoted post reads "Simply put; If you are doing it like this, you are doing it wrong. Read and get smarter" - I honestly cannot begin to describe how far off the mark this is.

@WolfdenApp @ladbrokescomau Does Irvine ever just shut the fuck up?

F.R.E.A.K. FULL SHOW: THE SATURDAY SESSION: THE CHAMPIONSHIPS DAY 1 youtu.be/ZqsisKjtRFQ